Bengals vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 30, 2025

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I did not plan on “fading” my top two projected tacklers on the MNF slate, but here we are. This is not a fade of Singleton the player (similar to Sherwood prop). He stepped into the starting role with Cody Barton in Tennessee, and he has to do even more with Dre Greenlaw on IR. His run-play involvement is still high at 16%, but that is way down from last year’s 27% sample because Talanoa Hufanga is crashing run plays at a much higher rate than P.J. Locke did. Justin Strnad has been better in run support too. Any time you see Hufanga flying in to make a run tackle, that was probably a Singleton tackle a year ago. Denver has faced an average of 27 opponent rushes per game. I have the Bengals closer to 21 rushes here; that trims Singleton by roughly one full expected tackle. Chase Brown has been stuffed at such a high rate that he is less likely to reach the second level than Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, or Omarion Hampton were against Denver. Singleton could get picked on a bit more in coverage and mix in on completions; that helps some, but not enough to offset the hit from run volume and Hufanga’s poaching. I also expect the Broncos to hold more time of possession and face nothing like the 80 snaps they saw against the Chargers, which is a huge reason Singleton posted a season-high 12 last week. I land at 7.7 tackles plus assists with about 60% to stay under 8.5.

Feed me the rock

Tailing @nick_giffen and Luck Rankings 🍀

There is a value opportunity on J.K. Dobbins's rushing yards prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 59.76 rushing yards, while sportsbooks implies 78.14. The model believes there is a 68% chance he records fewer than 66.5 rushing yards, so there is some value on the under at -112. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

DK, MGM, and ESPN have 5-1 including special teams

Gesicki has been 3rd in snaps among Cincinnati tight ends in 2 of 3 games. He led the Bengals’ TEs in snaps in Week 2, but the result was just 3 catches on 4 targets for 18 yards. He’s facing stiff competition from Noah Fant and Drew Sample. This offense with Jake Browning can’t support two receivers, much less a tight end who isn’t distancing himself from his teammates at the position. Attacking Denver’s talented secondary with tight ends and slot targets is typically the best route. It just might not be Gesicki getting those looks.

Via @MattyChucks

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Have Franklin at +210 as fair. Role increased in Week 2 and stuck in Week 3 with snap rates around 80%. Expecting the Broncos to move the ball here, and Franklin's my favorite route for exposure.

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MNF pick on Action Network Sun night recap

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