Bills vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - September 24, 2023

Bills at Commanders

5:00 pm • CBS

Buffalo Bills

7-2

37 - 3

Washington Commanders

7-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bills 7-2	-5.5-112	o44-115	-237
Commanders 7-2	+5.5-108	u44-110	+195

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

September 24, 2023

Northwest StadiumLandover

J.Poyer o5.5 Tackles + Ast+110

WAS +6.5-125

0.4u

Resorts World

BUF -5.5-105

1.05u

J.Cook Anytime TD Scorer+175

@charliedisturco

D.Kincaid Anytime TD Scorer+300

0.5u

Via Brian Matthews

WAS +6-105

2.1u

WAS +6.5-110

1.1u

J.Cook Anytime TD Scorer+175

0.25u

BUF -2.5 (1H)-124

BUF -5-110

Got a better price on Buffalo than I thought I’d get initially. Buying back in with the weather not being as bad as I thought initially.

WAS +5.5-110

BUF -5.5-110

J.Cook o73.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115

WAS +6-110

1.1u

T.McLaurin u4.5 Recs-130

1.3u

G.Davis u41.5 Rec Yds-114

0.88u

BUF -6-110

0.5u

Under 43-110

0.91u

Washington put up 35 last week + RLM

BUF -6.5-108

0.93u

Fade Rovell

Washington D Anytime TD Scorer+1000

0.25u

Shall we get goofy? Gimme some Josh Allen mistakes in a tropical storm against that nasty defensive front. Maybe a strip 6 or Manny Forbes brings that NCAA record pick 6 into play? Make SURE to play at DK. By far the best number and it also includes special teams TDs. H/t @GDAWG5000

WAS +5+113

1.8u

Taking advantage of our Lookahead CLV to buy out of a heavy position. Washington looks a bit better than they did a week ago after another win, but more importantly I don’t love this high line with a possible tropical storm coming in. Betting this alt line at DK locks in a tiny marginal profit and gets us out clean. Sometimes we can be right about CLV on these early reads and change our mind later and use that to get out clean. Don't hate Buffalo pick but wouldn't make it 2u now.

Under 44-125

Buying out of this position……weather related. Possible tropical storm.

WAS +6.5-108

1.08u

Line moving against me…..buying back

WAS +6.5-111

J.Bates Anytime TD Scorer+1800

0.1u

Logan Thomas banged up

J.Bates Anytime TD Scorer+1800

0.1u

Bet at Bet365 on 09/21. TE Logan Thomas in concussion protocol. Good chance he doesn’t play. Bates played nearly all of 2H after Thomas got hurt. This is already down to +500 at DK and FD so grabbing this now before it drops.

S.Diggs o69.5 Rec Yds-115

0.87u

Over 44-110

1.1u

Model makes this game 47

BUF -6-115

BUF -6.5-110

0.91u

@nick_giffen

BUF -6.5-110

0.91u

Bet365 3:28 Tuesday.

Over 44-110

1.1u

BUF -6.5-110

0.91u

I bet the lookahead line at -6 on Sunday morn. Hitting it again before it gets to 7. Commanders been very lucky in two wins this year. When Buffalo/Josh Allen win, they win big. Quickslip to FD: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.395961782&selectionId[0]=50203&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

BUF -6.5-110

#LuckRankings

BUF -6.5-110

BUF -6-110

0.05u

I hit this for half a unit after listening to @wheatonbrando on the action network wrap up pod last week.

BUF -5.5-110

0.91u

Ridiculous opener, should be at least over the TD. Good looks @wheatonbrando

BUF -5-110

1.82u

BOUGHT OUT: weather coming, so used our positive CLV to buy out and lock in small profit to avoid risk. Would not buy Buffalo -6.5 Week 3 Lookahead Allen clunkers happen, but faith will be restored in Bills after big home win over Raiders. Commanders almost lost to awful Cards. Howell bad, offense blah, dropped to 30th in my Power Rankings Bills cover this line in 31/39 wins (79%) last 3 season. Just zero reason this will stay below a td.

Featured Insight
Commanders QBs have a 7.7 passer rating when their QB was under pressure since Week 15 of the 2022 Season -- third-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed a passer rating of 1.7 when the opposing QB was under pressure since Week 15 of the 2022 Season -- best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Commanders have scored 4.0 points per Red Zone drive since the 2022 season -- tied for seventh-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed 3.5 points per Red Zone drive since the 2022 season -- best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Commanders are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Commanders are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Commanders are 3-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Commanders' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Commanders' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Commanders	8-1-1	5-0	3-1-1	5-0	3-1-1
Bills	5-4	2-2	3-2	4-2	1-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Commanders	6-4	1-4	5-0	2-3	4-1
Bills	5-4	4-0	1-4	5-1	0-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Commanders	7-2	N/A	N/A	5-0	3-2
Bills	7-2	N/A	N/A	6-0	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 17th	@DEN	W 35-33	+4 W	O 38.5	WAS +156
Sep 10th	ARI	W 20-16	-7 L	U 38	WAS -310
Aug 26th	CIN	W 21-19	-3 L	O 34.5	WAS -164
Aug 22nd	BAL	W 29-28	+1 W	O 37.5	WAS +105
Aug 11th	@CLE	W 17-15	+2.5 W	U 37	WAS +124

Cornelius Lucas
T
Lucas is out with ankle
Out

Brian Robinson
RB
Robinson is questionable with hamstring
Questionable

Amari Cooper
WR
Cooper is questionable with wrist
Questionable
Reggie Gilliam
FB
Gilliam is out with hip
Out
Christian Benford
CB
Benford is out with wrist
Out
Keon Coleman
WR
Coleman is questionable with wrist
Questionable
DeWayne Carter
DT
Carter is out with wrist
Out

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Bills

Total

Commanders

386

Total Yards

230

Total Plays

5.9

Yards Per Play

4.5

Bills

Passing

Commanders

218

YDS

170

20/32

Comps/Atts

19/29

6.813

YPA

3.289

1/1

TDs/INTs

0/4

0/0

Sacks/Yards

9/45

Bills

Rushing

Commanders

168

Rush Yards

105

Attempts

5.091

YPC

8.077

TDs

Bills

Turnovers

Commanders

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Bills

Efficiency

Commanders

2/4 50%

Redzone

0/2 0%

9/15 0%

3rd Down

1/9 0%

0/1 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Bills

First Downs

Commanders

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Bills

Misc

Commanders

6/45

Penalties/Yards

2/15

34:39

Possession

25:21

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MatchupOverUnder
Bills 7-2	o24.5-122	u24.5-115
Commanders 7-2	o19.5-112	u19.5+104

Bills vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - September 24, 2023

Bills at Commanders

Buffalo Bills

Washington Commanders

Bills at Commanders Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

Bills

Commanders

Bills vs. Commanders Previews & Analysis

McMurphy's Law: Looking Ahead to CFB Week 5

How to Bet Every Team and Every Game in NFL Week 3

Bills vs Commanders: Howell'in for This Player Prop

Koerner's Updated Pick'em & Confidence Ratings

Bills vs. Commanders Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

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Bills vs. Commanders Public Betting Percentages

Bills

Public

Commanders

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Commanders vs. Bills Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

Bills Injuries

Bills vs. Commanders Odds Comparison

Bills at Commanders Team Totals