Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - October 20, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Hutchinson is one of the top edge rushers in the game but has only cleared this in 2 of 6 games…that’s despite having a sack in 5 of 6 games. He’s not that involved in the run game so he usually needs 1-2 sacks in order to clear this number. Baker Mayfield has been one of the toughest QBs to sack this year with the 9th lowest pressure to sack rate and has only been sacked 4 times in 3 games since Tristan Wirfs was able to make his season debut. Projecting him for 1.1 sacks and just 3.0 tackles with around a 63% chance to stay under 3.5

• TB owns the 3rd Worst 1Q RB Receiving DVOA as they’ve allowed 6 different RBs to have 10+ 1Q Rec Yds so far: ✅ CMC — 17 ✅ Saquon — 14 ✅ Breece — 10 ✅ Chubb — 27 ✅ Marks — 37 ✅ Bijan — 67 ❌ SEA RBs — 0 • Gibbs has 3+ 1Q Rec Yds in 4 straight games. He also has 1+ Target in 5/6 games this season — when seeing 1+ target he has 3+ 1Q Rec Yds in 11/L12 games • I expect DET to win this game & be playing from ahead, so I prefer the 1Q angle, especially since Gibbs usually gets the opening drive or 2.

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Let’s get this out of the way, the Buccaneers have been impressive. They’re racking up yardage and finding incredible ways of winning. There’s no denying their success, but this is when it becomes incredibly difficult to look at projected scores and model outputs. Tampa Bay is doing everything right, but the question is whether that success is sustainable. Most people are high on the Bucs, but I’m not fully buying in. Our model is meant to be a baseline, not a dictator. It gives us a starting point and my job is to layer on human insight, news, and market context. Our algorithm likes the Bucs to cover tonight, but this is a game I’ve had circled for two weeks. Tampa Bay currently sits at #1 in our NFL rankings, which is often the biggest sign of regression ahead. Four of their five wins have required a game winning drive. Baker Mayfield has been clutch, but relying on late game heroics isn’t a recipe for long term success. When we dig deeper, the numbers back that up. The Bucs are 5-1, yet their Pythagorean win percentage is just 56%. That’s the profile of a team that’s been more lucky than dominant. They’ve also faced only the 17th hardest schedule, which makes their record look even less sustainable. Offensively, the Bucs have been good but not efficient. Despite strong yardage totals, they rank just 17th in offensive success rate, meaning they’ve struggled to consistently sustain drives. Defensively, the story isn’t much better as they are 21st in success rate and 15th in EPA/play. They’ve also allowed the 23rd most passing yards with a top 10 opponent completion rate. That’s not the profile of a 5-1 team. Now let’s flip to Detroit. I have the Lions tied with the Chiefs as the best rated team in football. Their only two losses came on the road to the Chiefs and Packers, both outdoors. That detail matters because Jared Goff’s splits are night and day depending on environment. We faded Detroit last week for that exact reason, but this week, we get Goff back in his element of Ford Field. At home, Goff averages 7.3 adjusted net yards per attempt compared to just 5.9 outdoors. His success rate jumps from 43% outdoors to 59% indoors. In the dome, with no wind or weather to worry about, this offense is nearly unstoppable. The numbers speak for themselves as Detroit ranks 4th in total EPA, 1st in EPA/pass, 2nd in success rate, and 1st in completion percentage. This is all while facing the 5th toughest schedule in the league. This is a nightmare matchup for Tampa Bay’s defense, which ranks 27th against the pass and 2nd worst in the NFL vs play action, allowing an absurd 11.2 yards per attempt. Against the most well balanced offense in football, that’s a major problem. Dan Campbell has been almost automatic after a loss. Since 2022, he’s 12-4 straight up off a loss, including 11-0 SU and ATS over the last 11 games. When they bounce back, they do it emphatically. Both teams enter this game a bit banged up, but that doesn’t change my view. I trust Detroit to reassert itself as an elite team and make a statement. The Bucs true colors will show tonight. I’ll take the Lions to cover.

Leg 1: DEN Leg 2: DET

Score Baker score

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Under in L3 - by any means necessary

The Lions will be without Terrion Arnold, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and D.J. Reed is still on IR. Basically their entire secondary is out. Run-stuffer DJ Reader is also shaping up as a game-time decision with a back issue. What does any of this have to do with Gibbs? Everything. Every rushing prop is tied directly to expected game script and time of possession, and in this case, the injuries set up a spot where Tampa Bay’s offense is likely to move the ball, which shortens Detroit’s time with it. The market seems to agree as the five most-bet props at BetMGM right now are all Baker Mayfield overs and his pass catchers. That makes sense given Detroit’s injuries, even if we don’t have official word yet on Mike Evans or Emeka Egbuka. Either way, Tampa should be able to sustain drives tonight, and that sets up fewer total plays for Detroit and likely a more neutral or trailing script than usual..which bumps up pass rate. When Detroit does have the ball, Dan Campbell has openly hinted he wants David Montgomery more involved after only six touches last week. He isn’t a coach who bullshits, so I expect the split to be more even tonight. Gibbs is still arguably a top 2-3 back in the league, but his yards after contact is down to 2.8 per attempt this season, his first year below 3.2. I do expect that to climb as the year goes on.. just probably not against a Tampa run defense allowing only 2.14 yards after contact, 2nd best in the league. When Gibbs is in the backfield, instead of tensing up, just lock in on No. 8 SirVocea Dennis pre snap. Nobody outside of Tampa fans probably knows who he is, but he’s been playing like a heat-seeking missile against the run. He’s already logged a team-leading 23 tackles in run defense with zero missed tackles, and his 17 run stops rank 2nd in the league. He does an excellent job of anticipating which gap the ball carrier may try to hit. Lavonte David (knee) is expected to suit up as well, which makes that second level even tougher to break through. The funny part is Dennis has been awful in coverage, so if Detroit wants to feature Gibbs, it probably makes more sense for them to throw to him rather than hand it off. That setup helps the under even more. So instead of dreading every Gibbs carry, just watch #8 pre-snap and root for him to meet Gibbs at the second level. Plus, we are rooting for TB to have long, scoring drives and for Monty getting more run. There are plenty of things to “root for” when it comes to this or any other under. I project this closer to 55.5 yards with around a 60% chance Gibbs stays under 60.5.

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Lions got Williams seven targets last week, only one of which was deep. More bunny targets is good for him to get him more chances with the ball in his hands. Now that he's back at home and indoors, like his upside in this matchup.

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The Bucs continue to be ravaged by injuries. Everyone focuses on Bucky Irving and all the receivers, but the secondary is also banged up and has looked the part. The Bucs have allowed among the top 10 most yards allowed to WRs this season, and opposing WR1s are averaging 10.7 targets a game, with every one of them at nine targets or more. That includes eight, eight, and 10 receptions to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — all of them on run-first teams, too — and it's also meant 132 and 142 yards to WR1s the last two weeks with the secondary ailing. These teams played three times the last two seasons. The Lions won two of the three and badly outplayed the Bucs in the other, more than doubling them in yardage. Jared Goff averaged 316 yards passing in those games as the Lions pivoted from their usual run-heavy script against a great run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely ate. Here are his lines: 12 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD 8 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions, 119 yards St. Brown averaged 10.3 catches for 107 yards, and it makes sense in this matchup. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA per play over the middle of the field defensively, and that's where the Lions live. Detroit runs more of it's plays there than any team and sits at 4th in EPA per play. The Lions are also first in short passing EPA while the Bucs defense ranks 29th. Tampa's linebackers struggle to cover the middle of the field. Remember the Puka Nacua escalator a few weeks ago? It's ARSB SZN. I'm building an entire Amon-Ra escalator, all the way to the sun, and I'm building it mostly around receptions. Let's start with over 6.5 receptions at -137 (DraftKings). Remember, every WR1 against the Bucs has at least nine targets this season. St. Brown has a career-high catch rate of 86%, so that nine targets at that rate would already put him at a floor of eight catches. He's gone over 6.5 in all but one game this season with games of 7, 7, 8, 9, and 9 catches. Up next is eight catches. Since the start of 2022 in the first full year in Ben Johnson's offense, St. Brown has hit at least 100 yards in 15 of his 20 games with eight or more catches. That makes for an easy SGP: 8+ receptions for 100+ yards at +292 (DraftKings). If you want to just stick with the receptions, nine catches is a good play at +220 (FanDuel), with ARSB already doing that twice this season. You can play 10 catches at +379, 11 at +630, 12 at +1040, and 14 at +3000 at DraftKings. St. Brown has five games with 10+ catches and at least 119 yards in this stretch, so I'll swap in an SGP of 10+ receptions and 120+ yards at +750 for the 10-catch spot in the escalator, then nibble all the way up. Oh, you thought we were done? I've got a couple more. Take that ARSB 8/100 and add in 300 yards for Goff and we get to +700 at DraftKings. Add a Lions cover on top and it's +1600. I'm also ready to invest in an awards ticket. St. Brown is a very similar stylistic player to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two names at the top of the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds. That's the sort of receiver dominating the league with huge stats in 2025, and if ARSB has a big game Monday night in a huge matchup, he should vault up the rankings too. Amon-Ra already leads the league with six receiving touchdowns, and he has a real shot at both the receiving TD record and the receptions record in a season. Add in the injury history for Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nucua, who's already hurt, and it's worth buying an OPOY ticket for Amon-Ra St. Brown at +3500 at ESPN Bet. He fits the profile and could have as good a shot as anyone.

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FD

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