Steelers vs. Texans Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2023

Boyd

Selling high on this Texans team sorry CJ

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-bet-josh-downs-dalton-schultz-sunday-week-4?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

Every Team Every Game: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-4-preview-odds-picks-every-game-every-team

Raybon 3

DraftKings - I think this should be past a field goal. I have PIT as a clear tier ahead of HOU, who has minimal HFA. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

In three games, Stroud has 14, 1 and 20 rush yards. The Steelers allowed QBs over this line in 12/17 last season 2/3 this season (Jimmy G had 7 yards last week). The Steelers are getting pressure on the QB so far this season (30.3% is the second highest through three games) and the Texans o line is very banged up. Stroud should be on the move a bunch, and I like his chances to scramble a few times. Why? The Steelers linebackers are in man coverage at a top 5 rate, which is typically conducive to QB rushes - stroud should be able to escape the pocket a few times with some daylight to run. Plus, Stroud running isn’t something the Steelers will gameplan defensively for, but he is capable.

@ChrisRaybon

CJ is now OROY leader, but this is also about fading Tomlin as a fave and a the team that just won in prime time. Line should be lower.

Available at FanDuel. I'm showing value in the moneyline here, too, but paying just -104 to get a push on 3 is hard to turn down. My model makes the Steelers 0.76-point favorites, so I'd expect this one to be pretty tight. We know the Steelers' defense is tough, and the Texans' offensive line has been missing pieces recently. But they've been efficient through the air, regardless, posting plus marks in both early-down passing efficiency and late-down success rate, and I'd expect left tackle Laremy Tunsil to be back this week. The secondary is the other rough spot for the Texans, but they did at least a decent job of keeping the Jags in check without Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre last week. Getting 3 at home for a team that has looked frisky thus far is hard to turn down.