NFL Week 5 Sunday is already underway, so let's get right to the NFL Week 5 odds and our picks and bets for every game and every team. Yes, all of them.
Maybe you're a fan of a particular team looking to put $10 down and have some fun, or perhaps you just want to get a little action on a game you don't have a good feel for but know you'll be watching. Maybe you know exactly who you like in a game, just not necessarily the smart way to bet it.
Regardless of your level of betting experience and comfort, I'm here for you. The goal of this NFL Week 5 preview is to share the odds for every game, along with my best way to bet on every team. Now, these are not all of my best bets. For those, I've made a few picks at the bottom of each game betting preview, and you can find my full betting card at the bottom of this story.
But for those looking to place a few bets for fun, either on your favorite team, against your most-hated rival or on a primetime game you'll be watching and need a rooting interest, this NFL betting preview is for you.
Be sure to follow Brandon on the Action Network app to see his latest updates and bets as we head toward kickoff.
Looking to place your NFL Week 5 bets? Get the latest updated NFL odds across sportsbooks here, as shopping around to find the best line is essential for every NFL bettor, beginner or expert!
NFL Week 5 Bets, Odds, Picks for Every Game and Every Team
Click on any individual game or team logo to go directly to that game or team pick!
Sunday Night Football Week 5 Betting Preview
Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds, Pick
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | +152 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | -180 |
What you need to know:
- The 49ers and Cowboys have faced the 32nd and 31st toughest schedules so far, per PFF metrics. Both teams have looked great against bad competition, but this is the first major test for each side.
- Dallas's offensive line practiced together this week for the first time all season but still has question marks at four of the five positions. Micah Parsons is playing through injury but expected to play, though both he and Deebo Samuel will reportedly play at less than 100%.
- These teams met each of the last two playoffs, with the 49ers winning both times: 19-12 this January and 23-17 a year earlier.
How to bet the Cowboys: Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (+130, BetMGM)
Purdy has yet to throw an interception this season and has only four in his career — even including last year's playoff run — but no time like the present, right?
As invincible as the 49ers offense has looked, it just hasn't been tested a ton yet, and Purdy continues to take some real risks and put the ball up for grabs. You can do that against a lot of opponents, especially as many weapons as San Francisco has, but you don't get away with that against Dan Quinn's defense.
This unit led the league in takeaways each of the past two seasons. San Francisco's offensive line has looked shaky and beatable. If Parsons and the pass rush can wreak havoc, Purdy could put a couple up for grabs, and the Cowboys know what to do from there.
How to bet the 49ers: Under 45
Both offenses are rolling, but I still trust the defenses better. Dallas continues to stall in the red zone and may not get its usual YAC opportunities against this terrific tackling Niners defnese, and the Cowboys defense leads the league in passing and overall Defensive DVOA and should hold its own too.
Remember how low-scoring those two playoff matchups were the last two seasons, just 31 and 40 points total. Both teams can be run on a bit, which moves the clock, and Dak Prescott road unders are 30-19 lifetime (61%). Primetime unders are 60% since 2019, including 9-4 (69%) through the first four weeks of the new season.
My thoughts: Bet Under 45
I'm not expecting a shootout. Instead, I'm looking for more of a cagey match as these teams feel each other out and play the long game for what both will expect to be the first of two meetings. I don't see a ton of big plays or scoring.
It honestly wouldn't stun me if one side just "solved" the other and we end up with a blowout and one offense laying a bit of a goose egg, but that probably hits the under too. I see a script similar to the playoff games, with stalled trips leading to field goals and a close game without much scoring that comes down to Prescott or Purdy making the plays late. The line feels right, but I like the under.
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Monday Night Football Week 5 Betting Preview
Packers vs. Raiders Odds, Pick
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | +114 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | -134 |
What you need to know:
- Jimmy Garoppolo is officially returning for the Raiders, but the Packers have listed Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander as questionable. Green Bay officially moved stud LT David Bakhtiari to the IR, but it looks like the rest of the offensive line will play through injuries, along with WR Christian Watson.
- It's not a return to Lambeau, but it's the first time Davante Adams could suit up in a Packers game playing for the other team, and you know that will be a major storyline and focus all evening. Adams is officially listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.
How to bet the Packers: Green Bay +2.5
The Packers are ready to get the bad taste out of their mouths after the ugly Thursday night loss to the Lions, and the Raiders might be just the solution.
Las Vegas ranks second to last in Offensive DVOA and dead last running the football, negating Green Bay's perennial defensive bugaboo, and the Raiders defense looks ripe for the picking, especially against the pass. Jordan Love should rebound with a big game as long as the line gives him time, and Green Bay should get some positive turnover regression.
Matt LaFleur is a major coaching advantage over Josh McDaniels too. The wrong team is favored here.
How to bet the Raiders: Davante Adams overs
You'll want some slice of Davante Adams in this revenge spot against his old team — the only question is how, and whether we'll get Adams at all, or the marquee matchup against Jaire Alexander, with both questionable.
Adams saw 13 targets with Aidan O'Connell last week and got to eight catches for 75 yards, despite missing a brief stretch injured. He's a stud in any form with any QB. I prefer a yards over to receptions or a TD, but we may have to wait til just before kickoff to get news on Adams and Alexander.
Adams has at least 71 receiving yards in 14 of his 21 Raiders games (67%), and Adams' target share is as high as ever. I'll hope for a line around 70 or 75 yards and plan to be the over.
My thoughts: Bet Packers +2.5
I love this bounce-back spot for Green Bay in a game that reminds me a lot of last Monday. The road team, Seattle, was far better and proved it quickly in a blowout win over a bad Giants squad, and I see a similar result here. Matt LaFleur is 14-4 ATS (78%) after a loss and 16-5 ATS (80% as an underdog, including 13-7 straight up).
I feel fine playing the Packers even if Jones or Alexander don't go, so I'll go ahead and bet this now since the line could drop again. If it gets to Packers +1 or even -1, go ahead and bet the moneyline instead.
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Week 5 Full Betting Card, Expert Picks
(updated through Saturday afternoon)
- Steelers +4.5
- Eagles -3.5
- Packers +2.5
- Texans TT over 20.5
- Chiefs TT over 27.5
- Cowboys/49ers under 45
- Joshua Dobbs over 21.5 rushing yards & escalator
- Adam Thielen over 4.5 receptions & escalator
- Bills -5.5
- Colts +2.5
- Patriots +1.5
- Jets/Broncos under 43.5
- Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing yards +320
- David Montgomery 2 TDs +325 & escalator
- Cardinals HT / Bengals FT +650
Completed Games/Games in Progress
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Week 5 Betting Preview
Chiefs vs. Vikings Odds, Pick
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
What you need to know:
- This game feature's the league's passing TDs leader who ranks third in yards — and also Patrick Mahomes! There will be fireworks and plenty of offense between Mahomes and Kirk Cousins.
- The line re-opened at Chiefs -6 but has steadily dropped all week to -3.5 and could even hit the key number by kickoff.
How to bet the Chiefs: Kansas City Team Total over 27.5
Kansas City's offense has felt a bit stuck in the mud so far this season, topping this number only once so far, but the Chiefs scored 27 or more in 62% of their games the last three years, and this shapes up as a potential get-right spot for Mahomes and the offense. The key here is the matchup against Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Remember Kansas City's season opener last fall against the Cardinals? Vance Joseph's defense blitzed all game and Mahomes shredded them to the tune of 360 yards and five TDs in the first three quarters of a blowout. Flores is blitzing around 60% of the time for Minnesota, an outrageous number, and the Vikings' pass rushers aren't even getting home. Mahomes will eat that blitz for lunch.
How to bet the Vikings: Over 52.5
It's not like the Vikings are going to shut down Mahomes. If Minnesota wants to have any chance, it needs this to become a shootout. Cousins and Justin Jefferson have been up to the challenge and Minnesota has already seen 52- and 62-point games.
The prop lines for Minnesota's stars are out of control. You basically have to bet on 300 yards for Cousins and over 100 for Jefferson. If those guys put up those numbers, it's because the Vikings are keeping pace and putting up points. Lean into the shootout. Overs in Kevin O'Connell home games are 7-4 (64%).
My thoughts: Bet Chiefs Team Total over 27.5
I really can see Mahomes and the Chiefs having a monster offensive game. I'll be looking for a good price on Chiefs alternate spreads and team total overs in case Kansas City hangs a really crooked number. Mahomes has thrown at least four TDs 16 times (19% of the time) in his career. I like his chances of adding to the list (+540 at Caesars).
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Eagles vs. Rams Odds, Pick
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +168 |
What you need to know:
- It may not always be pretty, but the Eagles are 18-1 over the past two regular seasons with Jalen Hurts in the lineup, and 14 of those 18 wins were by 5+ points. This team just finds ways to win.
- Philadelphia has a massive special teams advantage. The Eagles rank second in Special Teams DVOA, while the Rams rank 31st. Special teams typically make up about an eighth of the game. This stuff matters!
How to bet the Eagles: Philadelphia -3.5
This is one of those games the Eagles win in the trenches. You might remember Matt Stafford getting eaten alive when LA's offensive line had no chance in a Monday night game against the Bengals, so imagine what Jalen Carter and all Philadelphia's pass rushers will do. The Eagles also shut down the run game; they're No. 1 in Run Defense DVOA, and Sean McVay's offense is predicated on the run.
The other side of things is the big mismatch. The Rams offense has been impressive, but the defense just doesn't have much talent and has been especially poor against the run. That's the sort of defense D'Andre Swift should chew up. Trust the dominant line play.
How to bet the Rams: Matt Stafford over 269.5 passing yards
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
If the Rams' protection can hold up, Stafford can have another big day against a surprisingly beatable Eagles secondary. We keep playing Stafford's yardage over and it keeps hitting, so ride the wave. He's thrown for 300 yards in 3 of 4 games and went under this by half a yard in the other. And now he will be getting Cooper Kupp back.
My thoughts: Bet Eagles -3.5
The Rams have been better than expected, but that's just buying us value on the line. This was Philadelphia -6.5 before the season, so we're getting a free field goal now for an unbeaten team, just because of Stafford, Puka Nacua and Kupp's return? I don't buy it. There will be a time to fade the Eagles, but not in a matchup they should dominate in the trenches. Grab -3.5 if you can get it, but I'll play to -4.5 as needed.
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Jets vs. Broncos Odds, Pick
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -142 |
What you need to know:
- When the schedule makers lined this up as America's Game of the Week, they must have been drooling over an epic showdown between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
- Instead, it's a battle of leftover Wilsons — Zach and whatever's left of Russell at this point.
How to bet the Jets: Under 43.5
What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object?
The Broncos couldn't stop a nose bleed the past couple weeks, but Denver's defense is talented, and we know life gets a lot easier against Zach Wilson. If the Jets are going to hang, they'll hang the way they always do — by grinding it out with defense.
Unders with a total below 44 are 10-5 (67%) when Zach Wilson starts, and Jets games have finished under 45 points in 18 of 21 games (86%) since the start of last season.
How to bet the Broncos: Denver Team Total over 21.5
Hey, come on now with the Russell Wilson slander! The guy has actually been pretty good this season! This is a team that put up 31 in a win last week, and even in the ugly Miami loss, the offense still scored 20. Denver has quietly ranked near the top of the league in Success Rate, and the Broncos are better than average in both Passing and Rushing DVOA on offense.
The Broncos aren't exactly going to win with defense, so it's up to Russell to win the battle of the Wilsons. Denver has averaged 25.0 PPG. The offense hasn't been the problem — just don't bet on the defense.
My thoughts: Lean Under 43.5
This total has risen sharply since reopening at 40 on Sunday night, and I'm fading the line move, particularly since 40, 41 and 43 are all key numbers for totals. I'm not buying the Zach Wilson hype after Sunday night. This feels like a slow-paced, ugly, grind-it-out affair.
New York could also be a tempting teaser leg at +2.5, crossing off a pair of key numbers in a low-scoring game.
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Bengals vs. Cardinals Odds, Pick
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 44.5 -114o / -106u | -174 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 44.5 -114o / -106u | +146 |
What you need to know:
- Joe Burrow is expected to play, but he sure hasn't looked himself. By many of the fancy, advanced all-in-one metrics, Burrow has been the worst quarterback in football.
- To that end, you won't find any reliable in-season metric telling you the Bengals should be favored. The Cardinals have been flat-out better, particularly Drew Petzing's offense, which ranks top 6 in both passing and rushing DVOA.
How to bet the Bengals: Cincinnati to trail at the half but win +650
It's always darkest just before the dawn. The Bengals absolutely cannot lose this game and fall to 1-4, not with the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills up next. Coming into the season, we believed this team had a championship pedigree, and this is when they have to get it done — but maybe not the easy way.
Arizona is playing well, better than the Bengals. The Cardinals have only won once but have competed for 40 or 50 minutes in every game and have led at the half in three. Arizona has outscored opponents 64-41 in the first half, but has been outscored 51-25 in the second stanza.
The Bengals have been an incredible second-half team ever since their Super Bowl run. They've covered 25 of the past 32 second-half spreads (78%). Let's go for a big win here and bet on Arizona to lead at the half, but for the Bengals to win. Some books list this as a separate option as something like "Cardinals HT / Bengals FT" but you can also build it yourself as a Same Game Parlay.
How to bet the Cardinals: Joshua Dobbs over 21.5 rushing yards
The Cardinals offense continues to make magic happen, and Dobbs has been terrific. One way Petzing has unleashed Dobbs is as a runner. He's run for 41, 55 and 48 yards in the past three games and I don't think books have caught up yet.
Cincinnati allowed 45 rushing yards to Deshaun Watson in the opener and 54 to Lamar Jackson the next week. Quarterbacks that can run have hurt this team and I think Dobbs has a solid chance to double this number. You play him to hit 40+ yards at +340 or 50+ at +650 (DraftKings) as escalators too.
My thoughts: Sprinkle both long shots
I really think the Bengals find a way in this game, even though every number I see says the Cardinals should probably be favored by a field goal. I talked myself into the HT/FT play, but still like the Cardinals offense, so I'll sprinkle the +650 as well as the Dobbs alternate overs.
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Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games Week 5 Betting Preview
Ravens vs. Steelers Odds, Picks
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| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 38 -108o / -112u | -218 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 38 -108o / -112u | +180 |
What you need to know:
- Kenny Pickett looks set to play through his knee injury, but it wouldn't be shocking to see Mitch Trubisky at some point. Pittsburgh will also be without TE Pat Freiermuth. The offensive line is banged up, and don't forget about Cam Heyward and Diontae Johnson also being out for this game.
- Don't complain to the Ravens about injuries, though. Baltimore could be without its top two players in the secondary, its top two pass rushers, its top two tackles and its top two downfield receiving threats — though the Ravens are just starting to get healthy.
How to bet the Ravens: Either team to win by 7 or less (-115)
This is one of the NFL's best rivalries, and these games almost always end up close. Check out the margin of victory of the past six matchups: 3, 2, 3, 1, 5 and 4. In fact, 13 of the past 16 matchups finished with a one-score victory. No matter who's favored, no matter what's happening with these teams, they always play close games.
We've been playing this one-score angle with Chargers games recently. You might have to create it yourself, perhaps with a Same Game Parlay of Ravens +7.5 and Steelers +7.5 at DraftKings (-115).
How to bet the Steelers: Pittsburgh +4.5
There's no doubt Pittsburgh is banged up and that Matt Canada's offense looks completely outmatched, especially against a Baltimore defense playing really well. But you've been watching Steelers games long enough to know that doesn't matter much in this rivalry. Just play the spot.
The Steelers have won 5 of 6 against the Ravens, and the underdog has covered 11 straight. Last week was a classic Mike Tomlin letdown. This week is a classic "Rah Rah" Tomlin underdog spot. Look at the overwhelming Tomlin trends, all from Week 5 forward:
- As an underdog: 42-17-1 ATS (71%)
- As an underdog of 7 or less: 39-12-1 ATS (76%)
- As a home dog: 14-3-1 ATS (82%)
- As a division dog: 20-4-1 ATS (83%)
- As an underdog coming off a loss by 7 or more: 8-1 ATS (89%)
This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot for the Steelers.
My thoughts: Bet Steelers +4.5
This is exactly where we bet on Tomlin — as an underdog, at home, in a division game, off a deflating loss. You always want the dog in this rivalry. When Tomlin and John Harbaugh face off, the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS (81%). And one of my favorite stats: Since 2005, underdogs in this rivalry, when the line is 3 or higher, are a 18-2 ATS (90%).
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Texans vs. Falcons Odds, Pick
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | -140 |
What you need to know:
- Regular readers know these were my two darling Cinderellas entering the season, but they're headed in opposite directions. The Falcons started 2-0 but have lost both games since and failed to top seven points in either game. The Texans started 0-2 but have run up the score in two blowout wins since.
- Like usual, Houston's injury list is long. The offensive line picked up yet another injury to a starter this week leaving a mess on that front, and the cornerback room is missing two of its top three again, although the safeties have finally returned.
How to bet the Texans: Houston Team Total over 20.5 (+105)
Offensive line woes or not, C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal, and he is absolutely balling right now.
Stroud has been outstanding with a PFF grade of 90 from a clean pocket, and Atlanta struggles to put pressure on the quarterback. The Falcons rank bottom-6 in pass defense, and the Texans are shockingly in the top 5 with Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell in sync. This team just hung 30+ in back-to-back weeks on a good Steelers defense and a Jaguars defense allowing 15.0 PPG in its other games.
Atlanta's offense is struggling and playing slow, so books had to deflate this total, and that means value on Houston's over. The Falcons are also returning from a game in London without the advantage of a bye. Teams in that spot have allowed opponents to go over their team total 7 of 10 times, with the opponent tied or leading in the fourth quarter of all 10 games.
How to bet the Falcons: Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing yards (+320, DraftKings)
This is an obvious buy-low-sell-high spot if you want to put your faith in Desmond Ridder, but I do not and neither do you. Houston's pass defense has been stout, and Ridder needs to prove he belongs out there. But the one thing Atlanta continues to do well is run the football, and they can run on this 28th ranked run D.
Bijan Robinson has looked the part from the minute he stepped on an NFL field, and this has a chance to be his breakout game. Robinson is averaging 80 YPG and tied for third in the league in rushing yards even as the offense struggles and continues to give both Ridder and Tyler Allgeier too much attention. Talent wins out, and at some point Robinson is going to bust a long one.
Robinson has hit 100 rushing yards twice already, and this number is just too long for a player this talented. This is also a nice buy-low opportunity for Rookie of the Year at +450 against the current favorite, Stroud.
My thoughts: Bet Texans over 20.5 (+105)
The Texans look for real, and they're just starting to get healthy. But I don't trust their run defense yet, especially in this matchup. I'll skip the side or moneyline so I don't have to worry about the D. Instead, I'll just focus on Stroud and the offense getting to 21, and at plus money to boot.
I'm going to play the Bijan rushing upside, too; I like it even in a big Texans game, and it's also a bit of insurance in case this goes Atlanta's way.
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Giants vs. Dolphins Odds, Pick
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +530 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
What you need to know:
- The Dolphins are No. 1 in Offensive DVOA. The Giants are No. 32.
- Both defenses rank bottom-6 in DVOA, each bottom-10 against both the run and the pass.
How to bet the Giants: New York +12.5
Show a little pride, New York. This line was +4.5 before the season started and the bottom dropped out on this team. And, yeah, it's ugly with the line still a mess, but you just gotta hold your nose and play the number.
This is when you want to bet Daniel Jones — after a loss (63% ATS) and as a road underdog (17-6 ATS, 74%). Brian Daboll is also 6-2 ATS after a loss (75%) and 3-1 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown. There are also a few team-agnostic trends that fit New York. It's just a classic buy-low spot for a team at its nadir.
How to bet the Dolphins: Over 47.5
This number has come way down all week, so enjoy the value and go the other way.
Miami could go over this number itself with Wink Martindale blitzing all game and the Dolphins getting back on track offensively. Even if they don't, Miami's defense is going to allow Jones and the Giants to get some points along the way. It's hard to imagine this being a slow, low-scoring game.
My thoughts: No bet for me
The spread is too inflated, and there are too many offensive line injuries (both ways) to feel great here.
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Panthers vs. Lions Odds, Pick
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +345 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -455 |
What you need to know:
- Carolina is 0-4. Winless teams facing teams that are not unbeaten are 63% ATS.
- Detroit is still sorting out some injuries on the line and at safety; it looks like both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs will miss this game. The Panthers also have line issues and are missing a couple of key defenders, though Bryce Young is now healthy.
How to bet the Panthers: Adam Thielen receptions over 4.5
We hit big on Adam Thielen's receptions escalator last week, so let's go back to the well. The Panthers will likely spend most of this game playing from behind like usual, and Thielen has plenty of experience running routes against these Detroit corners.
Thielen caught 7, 11, and 7 balls the last three weeks on 31 targets. He's getting heavy target volume and also converted a very high percentage (81%) into catches. I'll stay away from yards or TDs, but I want receptions on volume alone. I expected this to rise to 5.5 so we'll play over 4.5 with confidence and play the Thielen escalator again at +360 for 7+ catches (Bet365).
How to bet the Lions: David Montgomery 2+ TDs (+325, DraftKings)
The Lions should run all over a Panthers defense that ranks last in rushing DVOA. That sets up for a easy, boring win and a chance for Detroit to get its guys healthy.
Montgomery ran for three scores last game and has reached the end zone in all three games. It's also pretty clear he's taking that Jamaal Williams role as the short-yardage and goal-line guy. Williams scored multiple times in six games last season, so we're at 7-of-21 games with a multi-TD runner.
That would imply +200, but we're getting +325 — a serious edge in our favor. Ben Johnson loves to run it in, and the Lions could run up the score again. DraftKings also has a "Weekly Special" with Montgomery scoring two TDs and rushing for 100 yards at +1200. That's an easy escalator on this bet.
My thoughts: Sprinkle Thielen and Montgomery props
This looked like a Lions teaser spot early in the week, but you want to lock in that teaser at -8.5 to get it down to -2.5, crossing off two key numbers (3 and 7). The line has risen too far now to spot much value.
I'll play both props though. I'm surprised Thielen's line didn't go up, and Montgomery only becomes more valuable with St. Brown and Gibbs potentially out.
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Titans vs. Colts Odds, Pick
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
What you need to know:
- The Colts owned this division rivalry for over a decade, winning 19 of 23, but the Titans have turned things around and won five in a row since.
- Both offensive lines are banged up and in tough shape, which could mean advantage defense, though Tennessee has some injury issues on that side of the ball, too.
- Jonathan Taylor is back! He's officially off IR, signed to an extension and expected to play.
How to bet the Titans: Colts Team Total under 20.5
We know the drill by now. The Titans don't need to look sexy. They win by mucking it up and dragging the game through the mud, with an offense mostly incapable of hanging a big number right now.
Tennessee is allowing 17.5 PPG. If the Titans are going to hang around or win, it'll very likely be because the strength of this team on the defensive line took over the game and dominated the patchwork Colts protection and kept Indianapolis from finding an offensive rhythm. Even if the Titans don't win and cover, they could hit this anyway in another close win or loss.
How to bet the Colts: Indianapolis +2.5
Are the Colts just better? Indianapolis ranks around league average running and passing, both offense and defense, and that's despite missing Anthony Richardson for more than a game and despite breaking in a rookie QB and coach. This Shane Steichen marriage with Richardson is already paying dividends, and now Jonathan Taylor should add to the fun.
The Titans are getting steamed up after a big win over the Bengals, but teams that cover by 26+ as underdogs are just 39% ATS the following week. This line is simply giving Tennessee too much credit.
My thoughts: Lean Colts +2.5
I honestly think the Colts ought to be favored here, and I would've had it approaching the key number, but I don't have much confidence in either of these sides and think this could end up pretty close and unpredictable. I prefer Richardson's upside and unpredictability and never mind grabbing the points for the home side in a tight division rivalry.
If you're looking to play a Jonathan Taylor prop, I lean under on his rushing yards in this matchup. I like his addition long term for the Colts but explain why I'm fading his props this week here.
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Saints vs. Patriots Odds, Picks
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
What you need to know:
- Neither side is flying particularly high. The Patriots are off to their worst start of the century and are coming off a 38-3 drubbing in which they definitely didn't bench Mac Jones. The Saints got thumped at home by the Bucs and spent the week grumbling about the offense, or lack thereof.
- The injury list isn't great either. Derek Carr is playing through a shoulder injury and looked the part Sunday. The Patriots lost key defenders Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez, and both sides continue to struggle through issues on the offensive line.
How to bet the Saints: Patriots Team Total under 20.5
These teams are weirdly mirror images, and I'm not sure which franchise should be more offended by the comparison. Neither offense is scaring anyone or attacking with any regularity, but both teams are hanging around just enough to compete, thanks to good, aggressive defenses.
This looks like a slog of a game, a low-scoring defensive battle where the first to 20 wins. The Patriots have yet to top 20 in any game this season and are averaging 13.8 PPG. The Saints' defensive front still gets after it, and that should be enough against Mac Jones.
How to bet the Patriots: New England +1.5
If these teams are pretty close to even, do you want Dennis Allen or Bill Belichick?
Historically, this has been a great spot to back the GOAT. Belichick is 64% ATS in games with a spread of 3 or less. He's 43-14-1 ATS (75%) as anything other than a 7.5-plus-point favorite after a loss. And you already know Belichick doesn't get embarrassed twice in a row. After an ATS loss of over 21 points, Belichick is 12-1 ATS.
Belichick is also 33-10-1 ATS in games with a total below 40. Do any of those reliable Belichick trends hold up anymore? I'll pay to find out.
My thoughts: Lean Patriots +1.5
We're getting Belichick vs. Allen, and we're getting Belichick vs. either an injured Carr or, you know, Jameis Winston. You had me at hello. We're really making Allen a road favorite against Belichick? I liked the Patriots as a short favorite, so of course I like them even more as underdogs. If this gets to +3 somehow, it's a definite bet.
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London Game Week 5 Betting Preview
Jaguars vs. Bills Odds, Picks
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -255 |
What you need to know:
- For the first time in NFL history, a team will play overseas for a second straight week. The Jaguars will again play the Sunday morning game in London, potentially giving Jacksonville a travel advantage against Buffalo, fresh off its huge win over the Dolphins.
- International NFL favorites not named the Jaguars are 24-12 ATS all-time. Favorites have won and typically covered overseas.
- A struggling Jaguars offensive line gets LT Cam Robinson back from suspension and he's expected to start immediately.
How to bet the Jaguars: Calvin Ridley over 53.5 receiving yards
There was a lot of talk about Ridley disappointing this week. After a sparkling debut with eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, he hasn't done a ton since. Still, it's clear Atlanta was hellbent on making sure its former star didn't have a big game as stud CB A.J. Terrell lined up across from Ridley on 79% of the snaps.
Buffalo just lost its top corner in Tre'Davious White, and a different defensive scheme should mean more opportunities for Ridley over zone-beater Christian Kirk. Ridley has gone over 60 yards in 15 of his past 24 games (62.5%), and hadn't gone three games in a row without hitting 60 since his 2018 rookie season before these past three outings. It's time for a bounce back.
How to bet the Bills: Buffalo -5
That Week 1 letdown against the Jets feels so long ago as the Dolphins thrashing moved Buffalo to the top of my Power Rankings. The Bills have three wins by 28+ points since that opening loss and have won by at least six points in 33 of 41 wins (80%) since the start of the 2020 season.
Jacksonville is trending up after a nice win over the Falcons, but its offense has still looked stuck at times and Buffalo's defense should keep the Jaguars in check, even with a banged-up secondary. The Jaguars' defense looks improved, but Josh Allen is another animal altogether.
My thoughts: Lean Bills -5
I don't love Buffalo losing Tre'Davious White just before facing Trevor Lawrence, and I have some reservations about the Bills facing a huge travel disadvantage immediately after facing all that Miami speed. I like Buffalo, but this is just a lean for now, though this does look like a solid teaser spot.
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