S Rodney Thomas II
Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-125)
Thomas has only cleared this line in 3-of-9 games and I’m having a hard time seeing him reversing that trend against the Patriots.
Thomas plays deep safety over 70% of the time and he may not see many tackling opportunities with Mac Jones getting rid of the ball quickly (2.48 second time to throw is the third fastest among qualified QBs). Jones also doesn’t complete many passes down field (4.4 average completed air yards ranks fifth lowest).
With LT Trent Brown out, I imagine the Pats will want to be even more conservative with their passing attack. And with DeVante Parker still sidelined, we'll see them use a ton of 12 personnel again.
Thomas also doesn’t help out much in the run game, which means he needs Jones to complete longer passes to players like Jalen Reagor for tackle opportunities. Yeah … sign me up for the under.
In addition, the Colts' home scorekeeper hands out assists at one of the highest rates in the league, so any time they're away from home, their defenders are less likely to pick up a cheap assist or two.
I’m projecting Thomas closer to 2.8 tackles and assists with a 64% chance of staying under 3.5.
RB Jerome Ford
Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Ford’s yards per carry (4.0) is a bit misleading due to two 69-yard runs he's broken off this season. His median has only been two yards per rush, which indicates that outside of those two explosive runs, he’s been quite inefficient.
That inefficiency should continue against a Ravens defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run. It’s also a game where the Browns may not be able to run as much and/or dominate time of possession, which could prevent Ford from having enough carries to clear this number. He’s also been operating as Cleveland's main passing back — that hurts his upside in this market with backup Kareem Hunt stealing early down work.
The Browns' offensive line has been decimated with both Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. on IR. Dawand Jones has also been ruled out, which is going to force the Browns to shuffle their O-line a ton.
Notably, James Hudson III will be forced into an every-down role. He's been a disaster this season and Ford has only averaged 2.5 yards per carry with Hudson is on the field as opposed to a 4.5 Y/R when Hudson is off.
I’m projecting Ford’s median closer to 34.5 with a 61% chance of staying under 42.5.
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RB Devin Singletary
Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
Dameon Pierce is going to miss his second straight game, which will make Singletary the Texans' lead back again this week. He played nearly every early down snap last week but due to the Bucs getting a two-score lead in the second quarter, the Texans abandoned the run fairly early and Singletary only finished with 13 rush attempts.
There’s certainly a chance that happens again this week as the Texans are 6.5-point underdogs against the Bengals, but Cincinnati may struggle to build a quick lead without Tee Higgins and potentially Ja’Marr Chase, who is dealing with a back injury.
The Bengals have been more of a run-funnel defense this season, ranking 10th in DVOA against the pass and just 24th against the run.
While C.J. Stroud has posted some massive games through the air, the Texans have been willing to lean on the run. Their -3.1% pass rate over expected ranks as the ninth lowest in the league
I have Singletary’s most likely outcome to be 14-15 rush attempts, with a 62% chance of clearing 13.5, so I like the value we are getting here.
TE Foster Moreau
Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
This is an odd line considering Moreau seems pretty likely to haul in at least one pass.
The return of Juwan Johnson has had a much bigger impact on Taysom Hill’s usage as a pass-catcher, but Moreau’s usage has remained fairly the same and he will likely run a route on 9-10 of Derek Carr’s dropbacks. That should allow him to see around 1.5 targets and considering he’s usually seeing high percentage targets, should be able to haul in at least one reception.
In fact, I have Moreau catching 2+ passes at a slightly higher rate (33.8%) than being held without a catch (30.1%) Catching one pass exactly is his most likely outcome at 36.1%.
All 11 of his receptions have cleared 3.5 yards, so it seems fairly unlikely that we get screwed with Moreau catching a pass and failing to clear this number.
I realize this is gross. Moreau is no T.J. Hockenson, and there's a very real chance he ends with 0 catches, but I do like the value we are getting here.
I have his median closer to 8.5 with a 62% chance he clears this.
S Tyrann Mathieu
Under 4.5 Tackles + Assists (+115)
Mathieu has only cleared this once in his last five games. He’s been playing deep safety at a much higher rate, 80%+ over the last two games, which is likely due to Marcus Maye making his return in Week 6.
Facing a Kirk Cousins-led Vikings team with Justin Jefferson would probably lead to more tackle opportunities for Mathieu, but this Vikings team will be a bit more run-heavy and conservative with Josh Dobbs under center, which will limit the tackle opportunities Mathieu gets.
I have Mathieu projected closer to four tackles, and we're getting nice exposure to his most likely outcome here, with about a 62% chance he stays under 4.5.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson
Longest Reception Under 15.5 (-120)
Robinson, who only has one reception that has cleared this total on the season, has an average depth of target of 3.8, which is the sixth lowest of qualified receivers and tight ends. What’s also concerning is his expected yards after the catch rate has only been 4.3 yards. Most players with an aDot this low typically see an expected yards after the catch of at least five yards.
Therefore, Robinson isn’t being schemed for explosive plays and it’ll be difficult for him to clear this number most weeks. With Tommy DeVito under center, it probably lowers his chances of clearing even more.
Dallas probably won’t have to worry about DeVito throwing deep and can have extra defenders near Robinson whenever he hauls in a pass.
I’m projecting Robinson's median closer to 12.5 for this market with a 65% chance of staying under 15.5.
LB Fred Warner
Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-105)
Warner has only cleared this number in 4-of-8 games, but this is a plus matchup that should give him more tackle opportunities.
The 49ers have only faced an average of 20.5 rush attempts per game this season (third lowest), but I have the Jaguars projected for around 26 rush attempts. Warner leads the 49ers in run tackles, so the added volume will benefit him a ton.
He’s also likely going to be in the area of the field for most of Evan Engram’s receptions. The Jags tight end has the third-most receptions amongst TEs this season.
The Jags' scorekeepers rank top 10 in most generous at handing out assists, while the 49ers' scorekeepers rank bottom 10. Warner gets a pretty big boost with this game in Jacksonville.
I’m projecting Warner's most likely outcome to be in the 9-10 total tackles range with the plus matchup. He has a 62% chance to clear 8.5.
QB Kyler Murray
Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This prop is a bit too high for Murray's season debut. Not only will he be shaking off the rust after extended time off, but it’s also his first game in the new scheme under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
It’s a scheme that's been more run heavy — Arizona’s -6% pass rate over expected ranks third lowest in the league. The Cards will also be getting back starting RB James Conner, which is another reason for them to lean on the run a bit more.
The Cardinals are only 1.5-point underdogs and will be less likely to get into a pass-heavy game script than usual.
I’m projecting Murray's median closer to 203.5 passing yards and a 61% chance to stay under 223.5.
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CB A.J. Terrell
Under 3.5 Tackles (-135)
Dee Alford has been ruled out, which means the Falcons will likely use Mike Hughes in the slot. We could see Rondale Moore get an increase in targets as that will be the matchup to exploit.
Terrell will probably be covering Marquise Brown for half of his targets and half of Michael Wilson’s targets. Wilson’s downfield targets tend to lead to fewer tackle opportunities for cornerbacks considering they are lower percentage routes (can’t tackle someone on an incomplete pass) and safeties are going to be more involved in bringing him down.
The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-fewest tackles opportunities to cornerbacks per game. In what should be a more neutral, run-heavy game script than usual for the Cardinals, that rate could be even lower.
Atlanta’s scorekeeper hands out assists at the third-highest rate while the Cardinals have a stingy, bottom-five crew. That is a huge drop-off in terms of potential assists Terrell could be awarded.
Terrell has only cleared this in 3-of-9 games, with four of those games ending with exactly with three so getting exposure to three is huge here.
I’m projecting Terrell closer to 2.8 with a 70% chance to stay under 3.5.
LB Alex Anzalone
Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Anzalone has been held under this number in 6-of-8 games.
The Chargers have only provided 12.9 tackles/assists opportunities to opposing LBs on the season, the lowest rate in the league. Part of that is due to the Chargers' home scorekeepers being the stingiest in the league in awarding assists.
Anzalone typically gets 2-3 assists per game, so a less generous scorekeeper will impact his overall tackles. I’m projecting his median closer to 6.5 with a 64% chance of staying under 7.5.
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