Athletics vs. Angels Odds & Betting Predictions - June 11, 2025

Betting on Soriano’s strikeout overs this year has been as enjoyable as stepping on Legos barefoot in the dark. He brings the heat with a 97 mph sinker, but it’s mostly a setup pitch with just a 15% whiff rate — making him very boom/bust depending on whether he can get to two strikes. As a result, he’s posted a career-low 16.4% K rate, but my expected K model has him closer to 23%, which makes sense given his approach and how lethal his out pitches can be if he gets to two-strike counts. His knuckle curve, split finger, and slider all carry 35%+ whiff rates. He’s struck out 13 hitters with the slider alone — the second-most of any pitch he throws — despite only using it 7% of the time. That usage should spike tonight since the A’s are sending up 6 righties, and Soriano throws the slider primarily vs. RHB (44% whiff rate). He’s also posted a K rate over 4% higher against righties in his career, and most teams have stacked lefties against him — so this split leans in his favor. The A’s swing at the first pitch at the 2nd-highest rate in baseball, which could lead to quicker outs but also sets up more favorable counts or foul balls to extend ABs. They also have the 4th-highest whiff rate against sinkers, so even that setup pitch might help him get to more two-strike counts than usual. Outside of Jacob Wilson, every hitter in the lineup offers a decent K chance, and I have him projected to churn through the lineup up to three times. That gives him enough volume and matchup-based upside to project this closer to -165 to clear 4.5 Ks. Update: Jacob Wilson was a late scratch (now I know why odds were starting to climb before I could move on this!) which makes me like this even more now

Follow @PicksOffice on X. Mitch Spence quietly dealing – just 1 ER in last start, 2.11 ERA over last 3. Angels starter José Soriano rocked for 7 ER last outing, walked 3+ in 6 straight. A’shitting .257 (vs LAA’s .225) – top contact team vs wild arm? Athletics seeing it well – Jacob Wilson hitting .372, Butler .273 with gap power. Soriano struggles to hold runners – A’s aggressive on bases. Soderstrom brings pop (14 HRs) to punish mistake pitches. Angels' pen? Worst HR rate in MLB, often leaking late leads. Don’t let 5 straight losses vs LAA fool you – A’s trending up, Angels under pressure at home. Spence’s command + A’s plate patience = high pitch count, early bullpen. LAA vulnerable late, A’s coaching staff pushing right buttons.

Bet to +130