Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - August 28, 2024

Blue Jays at Red Sox

11:10 pm • SNET
0 - 3
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Brayan Bello logoB.BelloBoston Red Sox logo4.4914-8
Chris Bassitt logoC.BassittToronto Blue Jays logo4.1610-14

Blue Jays at Red Sox Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays
0-0
+1.5-170
o9-122
+115
Red Sox
0-0
-1.5+142
u9-101
-135
location pinWednesday 11:10 p.m.
August 28, 2024
Fenway ParkBoston
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Expert Picks
Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
116d ago
Last 30d: 11-15-0 (-5.3u)
V.Guerrero o1.5 Total Bases-110
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
116d ago
Last 30d: 302-280-6 (+1.2u)
Under 9-112
0.89u
.tsa windy unders Overall: 712-478-46,60% (ROI:15%) Season:24-27-1,47% (ROI:-8%) .tsa wind blowing in under streak Overall: 547-378-39,59% (ROI:14%) Season:23-18-2,56% (ROI:7%)
Prop Hunter
Prop Hunter
116d ago
Last 30d: 16-21-0 (+3.1u)
V.Guerrero o1.5 Total Bases-105
1.05u
Free Play⚡️
Player Prop Savant
Player Prop Savant
116d ago
Last 30d: 38-34-0 (-2.1u)
BOS o4.5 Team Total-115
1.73u
Tracking for Pass the Prop now here. Breakdown on YouTube
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
116d ago
Last 30d: 79-94-1 (-28.1u)
V.Guerrero o1.5 Total Bases-120
1.2u
Vlad has been on a tare, batting .373 in Aug, but I like this play even more because of his history with B. Bello who’s pitching for BOS. He’s 8/19 vs Bello with 3 (2B), 2 (HR), & only 3 K’s. Vlad is hitting .320 vs RHP & .298 away this season. These aren’t even his better splits, but they’re still very good knowing Bello is also allowing a .290 BA at home. BOS bullpen is ranked 27th, so I’m not worried about that even if Bello pitches decent. Vlad has hit Ov 1.5 TB in 6 of his L9 games.
Markus Markets
Markus Markets
116d ago
Last 30d: 67-84-1 (+7.2u)
B.Bello o1.5 BB-160
1u
CZ
CeeJ Picks
CeeJ Picks
116d ago
Last 30d: 47-32-0 (+26.7u)
B.Bello o1.5 BB-139
1.39u
Picks  Office
Picks Office
116d ago
Last 30d: 121-111-6 (+0.9u)
Over 9-120
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Chris Bassitt simply hasn't pitched well of late for the Blue Jays, and his advanced metrics are indicating that it's not just a blip. Over his last three starts, he's amassed an alarming 8.40 ERA while allowing 14 earned runs and 17 hits in just 15 innings of work, good for a 1.53 WHIP. This recent downturn is further emphasized by a hard-hit rate of 38.7%, meaning nearly 40% of the balls put in play against him have been struck with considerable force. Along with Bassitt's xBA sitting relatively high at .254, opposing hitters are not only making contact but making solid and impactful contact-one that is likely to find its way into the outfield for a base hit and/or present run-scoring opportunities. His struggles are further outlined by his .324 xwOBA, which combines quality of contact, strikeouts, and walks to provide an all-encompassing look at a pitcher's effectiveness. His xwOBA ranks in the 37th percentile, indicating he is below average at preventing opponents from reaching base and scoring. This is compounded by his 27th-percentile fastball velocity, which sits at an average of just 92.5 mph, and a chase rate in the 9th percentile-meaning he's not generating the swings and misses to dominate hitters. This low chase rate explained partly by a whiff rate in the 13th percentile-means hitters are consistently making contact against him and driving the ball with authority when they do. That risk is further captured with a 46th percentile barrel rate, which speaks to hitters squaring up his pitches more frequently than average and taking those hard-hit balls for extra-base hits or home runs. The Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello has had a couple better starts of late, but he brings some different varieties of vulnerabilities that come in very much in line with the over bet. Bello's season ERA of 4.95 and WHIP of 1.33 point to a pitcher who allows a good number of baserunners, an assertion his advanced metrics confirm. For example, his hard-hit rate sits at an even worse 41.8% than Bassitt's, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league. His xBA of .262 and xwOBA of .334 rank in just the 22nd and 25th percentiles, respectively, further evidencing his vulnerability in allowing hits and runs. Adding to that, Bello's expected slugging percentage sits at .420. Usually an mitigating factor, Bello relies enough on generating ground balls. His 19 home runs allowed this season add to the risk, especially when facing a Toronto lineup that ranks 9th in ISO against right-handed pitching. That power complements their 10th-ranked 102 wRC+ against righties quite nicely, and the Blue Jays will no doubt be a good test for Bello. Offensively speaking, both teams are suited well to capitalize on these weaknesses in pitching. The Red Sox rank 4th in team batting average in MLB, coming in at .259, coupled with a 4th-best OPS in the league of .764. That would be consistent with the lineup that can score in bunches, while sustaining periods of scoring spurts at an incredible clip, as their 5th-ranked 4.89 runs per game would indicate. Further supporting that would be a 4th-place ranking in home runs with 167 on the season, proving their point of evidenced ability to change any game with one swing of the bat. Boston has had a .263 batting average and .327 OBP against right-handed starters, setting them up to take full advantage of the recent struggles from Bassitt. While they are not as prolific as the Red Sox, the Blue Jays nonetheless bring a great deal of offensive capability. Toronto's .173 ISO against right-handed pitchers was 9th, and that suggests extra-base hits and home runs, particularly against a pitcher like Bello, who has shown a tendency to give up hard contact. A lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., one of the single greatest threats in all of baseball, along with Bo Bichette, is more than capable of contributing to a high-scoring affair, particularly in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway. Recent trends are wholly heavy towards the over as well. The over on the total has hit in 40 of Toronto's last 58 overall and in 13 of their last 19 road games. For Boston, the over on the total has hit in 48 of their last 74 and 12 of their last 16 home games. None of these are coincidental trends but resultant effects of both teams consistently hitting well and poor pitching performances. Bullpen performance bolsters the case for the over even more. The Boston bullpen has often been highly inconsistent, carrying a 4.46 ERA over recent games that could easily see that number increase with additional scoring late in the game. The Toronto bullpen has been slightly more reliable, but still susceptible in key situations in the game when it's on the line in high-leverage situations.

PRO Insights

Blue Jays logo

Blue Jays

TOR Insights
  • Blue Jays logoBlue Jays have a strikeout rate of 30% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- second highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 46% against LHP over the last week -- highest in MLB.
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Red Sox logo

Red Sox

BOS Insights
  • Red Sox logoRed Sox hitters have a hard-hit rate of 42% this season -- fourth best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 43% against the Blue Jays RPs this season -- worst in MLB.
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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Previews & Analysis

  • Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card article feature image

    Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card

    Sean Zerillo
    Aug 28, 2024 UTC
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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Public Betting Percentages

22%

Bets%

78%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Red Sox
75-8732-4943-3830-4944-37
Blue Jays
83-7935-4648-3338-4143-37

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Red Sox
79-75-837-40-442-35-437-40-241-34-6
Blue Jays
81-77-445-34-236-43-239-39-141-36-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Red Sox
81-8138-4343-3842-3738-43
Blue Jays
74-8839-4235-4644-3527-53

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Aug 27thTORW 6-3-1.5 WU 9.5BOS -135
Aug 26thTORL 3-7-1.5 LO 9.5TOR -158
Aug 26thTORL 1-4-1.5 LU 10TOR -161
Aug 25thARIL 5-7-1.5 LO 9ARI -130
Aug 24thARIL 1-4-1.5 LU 9.5ARI -135

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injury Updates

Blue Jays Injuries

  • Bo Bichette
    IF

    Bichette is out with finger

    Out

  • Alek Manoah
    P

    Manoah is out with elbow

    Out

Red Sox Injuries

  • Lucas Giolito
    P

    Giolito is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Patrick Sandoval
    P

    Sandoval is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Garrett Whitlock
    P

    Whitlock is out with oblique

    Out

  • David Hamilton
    IF

    Hamilton is out with finger

    Out

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Box Score
Blue Jays Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Chris Bassitt logoRC.Bassitt, P1026.291
Brendon Little logoLB.Little, P14111
Ryan Burr logoRR.Burr, P30.100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
George Springer logo1G.Springer, RF0-4000
Daulton Varsho logo2D.Varsho, CF0-4000
Vladimir Guerrero logo3V.Guerrero, 1B1-3000
Spencer Horwitz logo4S.Horwitz, DH0-3000
Addison Barger logo5A.Barger, 3B1-2000
Alejandro Kirk logo6A.Kirk, C0-3000
Joey Loperfido logo7J.Loperfido, LF0-3000
Ernie Clement logo8E.Clement, SS0-3000
Will Wagner logo9W.Wagner, 2B0-3000
Red Sox Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Brayan Bello logoRB.Bello, P97890
Kenley Jansen logoRK.Jansen, P6110
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren Duran logo1J.Duran, CF1-3100
David Hamilton logo2D.Hamilton, 2B0-4100
Mickey Gasper logo2M.Gasper, 2B0-0000
Tyler O'Neill logo3T.O'Neill, LF1-4112
Triston Casas logo4T.Casas, 1B0-3000
Wilyer Abreu logo5W.Abreu, RF1-4001
Masataka Yoshida logo6M.Yoshida, DH3-4000
Connor Wong logo7C.Wong, C1-4000
Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, 3B0-3000
Ceddanne Rafaela logo9C.Rafaela, SS0-3000

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds Comparison

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Blue Jays at Red Sox Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Blue Jays
0-0
o4.5+100
u4.5-130
Red Sox
0-0
o4.5-122
u4.5-105