Brewers vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - September 25, 2024
Brewers at Pirates
10:40 pm • SportsNet PTStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
L.Ortiz | 3.32 | 7-6 | ||
F.Peralta | 3.68 | 11-9 |
Brewers at Pirates Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Brewers 1-2 | -1.5 | -1.5+105 | o8-112 | -159 |
Pirates 0-0 | u7.5 | +1.5-125 | u8-107 | +134 |
Wednesday 10:40 p.m.
September 25, 2024PNC ParkPittsburgh
Brewers vs. Pirates Expert Picks
Picks Office
77d ago
Last 30d: 111-102-5 (+0.8u)
Over 7.5-115
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta, despite solid overall numbers, has been inconsistent lately, particularly with his 1.57 WHIP over his last 3 starts. His vulnerability to home runs, allowing 26 this season, could prove costly against a Pirates lineup desperate to make an impact at home. Meanwhile, Luis Ortiz has struggled mightily over his last three starts with a 5.17 ERA and an alarming 1.40 WHIP, giving up 7 earned runs to a weak Kansas City lineup in his most recent outing. Ortiz’s Hard Hit rate of 38.1% and an xwOBA of .323 indicate he is prone to allowing hard contact, a dangerous combination against a hot Milwaukee offense.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has been good, but Peralta’s inconsistency could force them into the game earlier than expected. Pittsburgh’s bullpen, on the other hand, has been shaky, allowing a 4.50 ERA over the last 46 innings. Key arms like Isiah Mattson and Kyle Nicolas have struggled, with Mattson posting an 8.10 ERA and Nicolas an eye-popping 12.00 ERA in recent appearances. This opens the door for Milwaukee to add insurance runs late in the game.
Todd Tichenor’s presence behind the plate further tilts the scales toward the over, as games he’s umpired have averaged 8.86 runs with a 16-11 O/U record. While both teams have shown the ability to trend under in certain situations, the combination of Pittsburgh’s poor recent pitching form and Milwaukee’s offensive efficiency suggests this one will buck the trend.
Gamblers Dream
77d ago
Last 30d: 23-41-1 (-22.8u)
Over 7.5-115
1.15u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
77d ago
Last 30d: 283-245-11 (+22.5u)
Under 8-118
0.85u
#ProSystem
. umpire friendly unders
Overall: 2158-1501-186,59% (ROI:14%)
Season:78-49-4,61% (ROI:18%)
Sean Zerillo
77d ago
Last 30d: 19-36-0 (-5.3u)
Over 7.5-115
0.58u
Bet to -115
BJ Cunningham
77d ago
Last 30d: 15-12-1 (-0.9u)
Over 7.5-112
1.12u
PRO Insights
Brewers
MIL Insights
- Featured InsightBrewers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season -- tied for lowest in MLB. The Pirates have scored in at least three different innings in just 41% of their games since last season -- fourth lowest in MLB.
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Pirates
PIT Insights
- Featured InsightPirates RPs have allowed an OPS of just .481 (84 PAs) over the last week -- second best in MLB. Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .584 over the last week -- fifth worst in MLB.
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Brewers vs. Pirates Previews & Analysis
Brewers vs. Pirates Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Brewers vs. Pirates Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Pirates are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Pirates' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Brewers vs. Pirates Injury Updates
Brewers Injuries
- Christian YelichOF
Yelich is out with back
Out
- Brandon WoodruffP
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
- Robert GasserP
Gasser is out with elbow
Out
Pirates Injuries
- Ke'Bryan HayesIF
Hayes is out with back
Out
- Johan OviedoP
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
- Endy RodriguezC
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Brewers vs. Pirates Box Score
Brewers Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RF.Peralta, P | 96 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 | |
LA.Ashby, P | 25 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 | |
LD.Hall, P | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1B.Turang, 2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2J.Chourio, LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3W.Contreras, C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4G.Mitchell, CF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4B.Perkins, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5W.Adames, SS | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6J.Bauers, DH | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7R.Hoskins, 1B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8S.Frelick, RF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9J.Ortiz, 3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pirates Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL.Ortiz, P | 92 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |
RD.Santana, P | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
LA.Chapman, P | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2B.Reynolds, LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3O.Cruz, CF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4A.McCutchen, DH | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5N.Gonzales, 2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6J.Triolo, 1B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7Y.Grandal, C | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8N.Yorke, RF | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8B.Cook, RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9L.Peguero, SS | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds Comparison
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Brewers at Pirates Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Brewers 1-2 | o4.5+105 | u4.5-130 |
Pirates 0-0 | o3.5+106 | u3.5-136 |