Cubs vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - May 23, 2025

Cubs at Reds

10:40 pm • MARQ

Chicago Cubs

4-4

13 - 6

Cincinnati Reds

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
H.Greene			2.76	7-4
M.Boyd			3.21	14-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 4-4	-1.5	-1.5+147	o8.5-105	-116
Reds 0-2	u8.5	+1.5-175	u8.5-120	-103

Friday 10:40 p.m.

May 23, 2025

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

M.Boyd u5.5 Ks+115

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

M.Boyd u5.5 Ks+115

1.15u

Boyd has cleared this line in 4 straight, but that’s largely due to an easier schedule — and this sets up as a sharp sell-high spot. The Reds rank 4th in K% on the season, but today’s lineup projects closer to league average. Boyd’s 24.8% K rate has outpaced his expected mark (21.6% in my model), so some regression looks likely. His best strikeout pitch is the slider (35%+ whiff rate), and while the Reds have struggled badly against sliders (worst whiff rate in MLB), they’re right around league average vs. fastballs, changeups, and curveballs — which is notable because Boyd leans on that mix against right-handed hitters, and the Reds are sending up 8 of them today. His most likely K range is 4–6, and with the under, we win on 2 of those 3 outcomes. I project this closer to -140, making +115 a strong value.

M.Boyd o5.5 Ks-127

1.5u

K.Tucker o0.5 HR+380

0.5u

S.Suzuki o0.5 HR+425

2.13u

CHC -105 (F5)

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-150

0.5u

Under 8.5-104

0.52u

Bet to -115

M.Boyd o17.5 Outs-130

1.3u

Cubs vs Reds: +180 SGP for Friday
Chilly Bets•
May 23, 2025 UTC
5 Home Run Prop Bets & Parlay for Friday
Grant Neiffer•
May 23, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 26 of Reds' 79 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	82-78	40-39	42-39	29-43	53-34
Cubs	78-84	39-42	39-42	55-60	22-24

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	58-91-11	26-45-8	32-46-3	20-47-5	37-44-6
Cubs	74-78-10	40-36-5	34-42-5	52-56-7	22-21-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	83-79	44-35	38-43	39-33	43-44
Cubs	92-70	50-31	42-39	73-42	18-28

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 21st	@PIT	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8	PIT -128
May 20th	@PIT	L 0-1	-1.5 L	U 8	PIT -145
May 19th	@PIT	W 7-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CIN -116
May 18th	CLE	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 9	CIN -135
May 17th	CLE	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 10	CIN -105

Michael Soroka
P
Soroka is out with shoulder
Out
Justin Steele
P
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Noelvi Marte
IF
Marte is day-to-day with side
Day-to-Day
Reiver Sanmartin
P
Sanmartin is out with elbow
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with groin
Out
Chase Burns
P
Burns is out with hip
Out
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
P
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Boyd, P	93	4	3	4
RJ.Merryweather, P	32	0.2	0	2
RC.Flexen, P	14	1.1	0	0
RB.Keller, P	17	1	1	0
LD.Pomeranz, P	15	1	1	0
RR.Pressly, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1I.Happ, LF	1-4	2	0	0
2K.Tucker, DH	1-5	1	0	2
3S.Suzuki, RF	3-5	3	1	3
4P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	3-5	2	2	6
5C.Kelly, C	1-4	1	0	0
6M.Busch, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7D.Swanson, SS	1-4	1	1	2
8N.Hoerner, 2B	3-5	2	0	0
9M.Shaw, 3B	0-5	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	83	4	2	2
RS.Barlow, P	18	1.1	3	0
LT.Rogers, P	10	0.2	0	0
RI.Gibaut, P	12	0.1	0	3
RT.Santillan, P	17	0	0	3
LB.Suter, P	35	1.2	2	3
RL.Mey, P	23	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	2-5	1	1
2S.Espinal, 3B	1-4	1	0
3E.De La Cruz, SS	1-5	1	0
4A.Hays, LF	2-5	1	1
5S.Steer, 1B	3-5	1	1
6T.Stephenson, DH	1-4	1	1
7J.Trevino, C	0-2	0	0
7G.Lux, PH	0-0	0	0
7A.Wynns, C	1-1	0	0
8C.Joe, RF	1-2	0	0
8W.Benson, PH	0-2	0	0
8W.Benson, RF	0-2	0	0
9M.McLain, 2B	1-4	0	0