Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - July 5, 2024

Phillies at Braves

11:20 pm • Apple TV+

Philadelphia Phillies

61-47

8 - 6

Atlanta Braves

45-62

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			3.25	11-10
A.Nola			3.57	14-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 61-47	+1.5-185	o7.5+100	+120
Braves 45-62	-1.5+154	u7.5-120	-142

Friday 11:20 p.m.

July 05, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

A.Riley o1.5 Total Bases+100

Over 7.5-110

PHI +118

3.54u

PHI +115

1.15u

Don’t mind my religion

A.Bohm o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

Bohm HR derby you say?

PHI +117

2.34u

PHI +120

1.8u

Featured Insight
Phillies have won 59% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth best in MLB. Braves have won just 39% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- tied for second worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves have won 61% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- tied for second best in MLB. Phillies have won just 41% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth worst in MLB.

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Phillies vs. Braves: How to Bet Nola-Fried in F5
John Feltman•
Jul 5, 2024 UTC

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The Braves are 17-79 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Braves are 23-14 (.622) after a loss this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Phillies are 40-5 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Marcell Ozuna is batting .455 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for 15th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Logan Webb has a strike rate of 69% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Nick Castellanos has struck out in 25% of PA's since the 2022 season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 14th Percentile. A.J. Minter has a strikeout rate of 32% since the 2022 season -- tied for 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (308/865) when he's behind in the count since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 10% -- 99th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .370 (135 PA's) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .645 -- 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .234 (725 PA's) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 -- 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (58 Total Bases / 272 ABs) against right-handed batters this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 20-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Braves' 52 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	42-65	22-30	20-35	32-48	10-17
Phillies	53-55	25-27	28-28	41-45	12-10

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	46-54-7	19-30-3	27-24-4	33-43-4	13-11-3
Phillies	45-57-6	26-24-2	19-33-4	36-44-6	9-13

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	45-62	26-26	19-36	40-40	5-22
Phillies	61-47	33-19	28-28	53-33	8-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 4th	SF	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	SF -130
Jul 3rd	SF	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -209
Jul 2nd	SF	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 8	SF -198
Jun 30th	PIT	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9	PIT -198
Jun 29th	PIT	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -142

Chris Sale
SP
Sale is out with ribs
Out
Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Cox
RP
Cox is out with knee
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Alec Bohm
3B
Bohm is out with ribs
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P	103	6	8	3
RO.Kerkering, P	20	1	2	0
LJ.Alvarado, P	24	1	0	3
RJ.Hoffman, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Stott, DH	1-4	2	0	1
2T.Turner, SS	2-5	2	2	4
3A.Bohm, 1B	3-5	0	0	0
4N.Castellanos, RF	2-5	0	0	0
5E.Sosa, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
6W.Merrifield, 2B	1-5	1	0	0
7R.Marchan, C	2-5	0	0	0
8J.Rojas, CF	2-5	2	0	1
9C.Pache, LF	1-5	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P	103	6	4	5
RJ.Chavez, P	33	2	3	1
LD.Lee, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	3-4	3	1	1
3A.Riley, 3B	1-3	2	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	3
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Duvall, RF	0-4	0	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9E.White, LF	0-4	0	0	0