Rays vs. Mariners Odds & Betting Predictions - August 28, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Thus far this season, Rasmussen has a 2.70 ERA through his first six appearances and is holding opponents to a .205 batting average. Rasmussen's strikeout rate of 12.6 per nine innings shows he has the stuff to dominate, and he should be able to stymie a Mariners lineup that has struggled mightily all year. Expected stats are also excellent on Rasmussen, with an xERA of 2.32 and an xBA of .215 that are far and away above league average, showing he has been limiting quality contact effectively. Other than that, his fastball velocity sits in the 90th percentile. His strikeout rate sits at 33.3%, and hard-hit rate sits at 28%, showing he can dominate hitters for the most part. That would make him a good challenge for Seattle's offense. It's clear that the big part of the problem remains the Seattle offense, and yesterday was another clear indication of it, scoring only two runs in support for an otherwise great outing by Logan Gilbert. The Mariners have struggled with running up the score this year, and their 3.95 average runs scored per game would certainly attest to that. That is unlikely to change soon with the tough staff the Rays throw out there. Luis Castillo is Seattle's ace, and he has had his share of issues too. Most of those have been due to a lack of run support. Of late he has not been in the best of form and gave up six hits and five runs in his last outing. While Castillo has had a good season, he does show some vulnerability in important areas. His xERA sits at 3.89 and his xBA at .245, both higher than Rasmussen's, meaning he has allowed more quality contact. His hard-hit percentage sits concerning at 41.9%, placing him below league average in that metric and thus insinuating that when he is hit, it is often with authority. Also, a 24.9% strikeout rate from Castillo, though solid in its own right, isn't quite as dominant as Rasmussen's. And an xSLG of .412 portends extra-base possibilities against him. Rasmussen's hard-contact limitation ability combined with an elite fastball, paired with strong overall expected statistics, set him up well in this matchup. With Castillo prone to hard contact and the strong offense of the Rays, Tampa Bay would have the advantage in this contest. The Rays on the moneyline have a nice value, particularly with Rasmussen performing well over his recent turns and the Mariners struggling with the velocity he can offer.