Rays vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2025

Rays at Yankees

11:05 pm • YES

Tampa Bay Rays

4-5

0 - 3

New York Yankees

7-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			2.86	19-5
R.Pepiot			3.87	11-12

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 4-5	+1.5	+1.5-105	o8.5-122	+195
Yankees 7-2	u8.5	-1.5-115	u8.5+100	-239

Friday 11:05 p.m.

May 02, 2025

Yankee StadiumBronx

NYY -1.5-110

R.Pepiot o4.5 Hits Allowed-160

0.31u

NYY -1.5-105

0.95u

Yankees own this matchup – Max Fried 3-0 vs Rays, 0.42 ERA. Fried leads MLB in ERA (1.19), tied for most wins (5). Yanks 10-5 at home, won 7 of last 8 after a loss. Pepiot solid but hittable – 4.24 ERA. Big edge on the mound, sharp bounce-back spot. Offense rolling – Judge leads MLB in AVG (.427), hits (50), tied in HRs (10). 27-game OB streak. Team ranks 2nd in runs/game (5.71), OPS at .829. Crush RHPs – .264 AVG and 7 runs/game. Full lineup locked in, producing top to bottom. Bullpen shuts it down – 3.12 ERA, team WHIP 1.20. Total team ERA 3.75, 12th in MLB. Rays can't keep pace at Yankee Stadium. NY dominates every phase – starter, pen, lineup, trends. This is a strong bounce-back and clear value on the run line.

NYY -1.5-110

$1.00

Over 8.5-110

Bombs in the Bronx

TB +210

NYY +185 (1st Inn)

0.5u

Yankees single team YRFI at DK (if it ain't broke...)

R.Pepiot o4.5 Hits Allowed-137

0.36u

NYY -1.5+102

0.5u

TB +180

0.5u

Bet to +172

NYY -180 (F5)

0.5u

Price currently FD - Fried's estimators beat Pepiots by more than half a run, while NYY proj LU much better defense than TBR - Real story is the offensive gap: NYY 153/133/162 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days, TBR 84/73/80

Rays vs. Yankees: Back NY on the Run Line
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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 5-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Yankees' 3 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	7-2	2-1	5-1	6-2	1-0
Rays	4-5	N/A	4-5	2-2	2-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	4-4-1	3-0	1-4-1	3-4-1	1-0
Rays	6-2-1	N/A	6-2-1	3-0-1	3-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	7-2	2-1	5-1	6-2	1-0
Rays	4-5	N/A	4-5	2-2	2-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	@BAL	L 4-5	+1.5 W	U 9.5	BAL +100
Apr 29th	@BAL	W 15-3	-1.5 W	O 9.5	NYY -174
Apr 28th	@BAL	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 9.5	BAL -135
Apr 27th	TOR	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYY -162
Apr 27th	TOR	W 11-2	-1.5 W	O 8.5	NYY -205

Gavin Lux
LF
Lux is out with shoulder
Out

Carlos Rodon
SP
Rodon is out with elbow
Out
Gerrit Cole
SP
Cole is out with elbow
Out
Clarke Schmidt
SP
Schmidt is out with elbow
Out
Anthony Volpe
SS
Volpe is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Pepiot, P	88	4.1	1	2
LM.Montgomery, P	10	0.2	1	1
RE.Orze, P	24	1	1	0
RM.Rodriguez, P	9	1	1	0
LG.Cleavinger, P	11	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Simpson, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2Y.Diaz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Caminero, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Aranda, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5C.Morel, LF	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Caballero, SS	1-2	0	0	0
7K.Misner, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Mead, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9D.Jansen, C	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LM.Fried, P	92	7	6
RD.Williams, P	8	1	1
RL.Weaver, P	11	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Grisham, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Judge, RF	2-4	1	0	0
3B.Rice, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4P.Goldschmidt, 1B	2-4	1	1	3
5C.Bellinger, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6A.Volpe, SS	1-3	0	0	0
7A.Wells, C	0-3	0	0	0
8O.Cabrera, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Vivas, 2B	0-1	1	0	0