Red Sox vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 4, 2024

Red Sox at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Boston Red Sox

12-11

3 - 8

New York Mets

15-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Megill			4.04	4-5
T.Houck			3.12	9-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 12-11	-1.5+160	o7.5-116	+100
Mets 15-7	+1.5-192	u7.5-105	-120

Wednesday 11:10 p.m.

September 04, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

NYM -115

0.25u

Small bump. Price Target now -125 after lineups

T.Casas o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+140

Under 7.5-105

1.05u

NYM -112

0.89u

@Zerillo

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

1.15u

T.Megill u16.5 Outs-130

Megill is under this line in 8/10 starts. 4.02 pitches per PA (would be bottom 15th percentile if he qualified), with a zone% that ranks 227th of 294 amongst pitchers with 50+ IP. Also struggles more vs lefties with a .798 OPS allowed and double the walk rate. The Red Sox should start 6 lefties tonight, and as a team they see the 12th most pitches per PA (and have been more patient of late).

J.Duran o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-145

0.86u

NYM -102

0.5u

Update: Bet to -125

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The Red Sox are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Red Sox are just 18-19 (.486) after a home loss this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

Pete Alonso is batting just .193 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- tied for seventh worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 41% of the time since last season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 119 total SL-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (39/128) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since last season -- tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- fifth Percentile.

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .379 (235 PA's) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season -- 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .330 -- 14th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed an OBP of .318 (321 PA's) against right-handed batters this season -- 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 -- 16th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 5-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets' 10 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	11-11	6-4	5-7	8-9	3-2
Red Sox	11-12	4-6	7-6	7-9	4-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	7-15	3-7	4-8	7-10	0-5
Red Sox	9-13-1	4-5-1	5-8	5-10-1	4-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	15-7	9-1	6-6	13-4	2-3
Red Sox	12-11	6-4	6-7	9-7	3-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 3rd	BOS	W 7-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -130
Sep 2nd	BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM -117
Sep 1st	@CWS	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 7.5	NYM -182
Aug 31st	@CWS	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -196
Aug 31st	@CWS	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -219

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
OF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Jeff McNeil
IF
McNeil is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Francisco Alvarez
C
Alvarez is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out with hamstring
Out
Connor Wong
C
Wong is out with finger
Out
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is out with shoulder
Out
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P	84	5	7	4
RZ.Kelly, P	13	1	1	0
RJ.Slaten, P	11	1	0	0
RK.Jansen, P	28	0.1	1	4
LR.Hill, P	16	0.1	0	0
RG.Weissert, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	2-4	1	1
2R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	1
3W.Abreu, RF	0-1	0	1
3R.Refsnyder, PH	1-1	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, RF	1-1	0	0
4T.O'Neill, LF	1-3	0	0
5M.Yoshida, DH	0-4	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	0-2	0	0
7C.Wong, C	2-4	0	0
8E.Valdez, 2B	2-4	1	0
9N.Sogard, SS	1-2	1	0
9R.Gonzalez, PH	0-2	0	0
9R.Gonzalez, SS	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	67	4	3	3
LA.Young, P	14	1	0	0
RH.Brazoban, P	18	1.1	1	0
LD.Young, P	14	1.1	1	0
RP.Maton, P	13	0.1	0	0
RE.Diaz, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	1	0	0
2B.Nimmo, LF	1-2	2	0	0
3M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
3J.Iglesias, PR	0-0	1	0	0
3J.Iglesias, 3B	0-0	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Winker, DH	1-3	2	1	4
6T.Taylor, RF	0-3	1	0	1
7J.McNeil, 2B	0-3	0	0	1
8F.Alvarez, C	1-3	0	0	1
9H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	1