Red Sox vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - June 22, 2024

Red Sox at Reds

8:10 pm • BSOH

Boston Red Sox

30-34

4 - 3

Cincinnati Reds

30-33

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Montas			5.01	4-8
N.Pivetta			4.14	6-12

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 30-34	-1.5+130	o9.5-105	-118
Reds 30-33	+1.5-155	u9.5-115	-101

Saturday 8:10 p.m.

June 22, 2024

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

F.Montas u16.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Sox hitting well vs righties L14 days: 118 wRC+ and .778 OPS. Today’s lineup with 7 lefties, and 6 guys overall who see above avg pitches per PA. Montas himself is at 3.97 pitches per PA, and an .833 OPS against lefties. And the Sox are third in wRAA per 100 pitches vs the split finger (Montas’ key pitch to lefties specifically). Reds rotation all with 6+ IP since Montas’ last start, with an off day mixed in.

BOS -1.5+130

0.5u

BOS -120

0.83u

CIN +110

BOS -125

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-120

BOS -123

0.81u

CIN +107

Featured Insight
Opponents are hitting just .150 (3-for-20) against Red Sox RPs with RISP over the last week -- fifth best in MLB. The Reds are batting just .189 with RISP over the last week -- third worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Reds RPs have a strikeout rate of 25% this season -- tied for fifth highest in MLB. Red Sox have struck out 25% this season -- fourth highest in MLB.

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3 MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Saturday
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The Red Sox are 37-9 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Elly De La Cruz has struck out in 33% of PA's since last season -- third highest in MLB-- second Percentile. Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 30% since last season -- ninth highest among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

Jeimer Candelario is batting just .169 on breaking pitches from RHP since the 2022 season -- worst in MLB-- first Percentile. Nick Pivetta has thrown a breaking pitch 47% of the time since the 2022 season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .770 (211 Total Bases / 274 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .574 -- 0 Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .179 (485 PA's) with two-strikes since last season -- 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .245 -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 16-16 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Reds' 31 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	33-30	17-14	16-16	14-14	19-15
Red Sox	31-33	15-18	16-15	20-23	11-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	25-36-2	12-18-1	13-18-1	6-20-2	18-16
Red Sox	29-34-1	14-18-1	15-16	19-23-1	10-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	30-33	15-16	15-17	14-14	16-18
Red Sox	30-34	17-16	13-18	22-21	8-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 21st	BOS	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 9	CIN -105
Jun 19th	@PIT	L 0-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	PIT +112
Jun 18th	@PIT	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	CIN -120
Jun 17th	@PIT	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 8	PIT +153
Jun 16th	@MIL	L 4-5	-	U 9.5	MIL +100

Tanner Houck
P
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

Wade Miley
P
Miley is out with elbow
Out
Noelvi Marte
IF
Marte is day-to-day with side
Day-to-Day
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
P
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P	96	4.1	5	3
LB.Bernardino, P	5	0.2	0	0
RG.Weissert, P	15	1	1	0
LC.Booser, P	8	0.2	0	0
RZ.Kelly, P	6	0.1	0	0
RC.Martin, P	22	1	2	0
RK.Jansen, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	2-4	1	0	0
1J.Duran, CF	2-4	1	0	0
2W.Abreu, RF	1-3	1	0	0
2R.Refsnyder, PH	1-1	0	0	1
2R.Refsnyder, RF	1-1	0	0	1
3C.Wong, C	1-4	0	0	1
4R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	0	1
5E.Valdez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Yoshida, DH	0-4	0	0	0
7D.Smith, 1B	1-2	1	1	1
7R.Gonzalez, PH	0-2	0	0	0
7R.Gonzalez, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
8D.Hamilton, SS	0-1	0	0	0
8T.O'Neill, PH	1-2	0	0	0
8T.O'Neill, LF	1-2	0	0	0
9C.Rafaela, CF	1-4	1	0	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Montas, P	72	6	4	2
LS.Moll, P	16	1	1	0
LJ.Wilson, P	9	0	0	2
RL.Sims, P	16	1	1	0
RB.Farmer, P	16	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	2-5	0	0	0
2E.De La Cruz, SS	3-5	1	1	1
3J.Candelario, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4S.Steer, 1B	1-4	1	1	2
5J.Fraley, RF	2-4	0	0	0
6J.India, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
7N.Martini, DH	0-4	0	0	0
8L.Maile, C	0-2	0	0	0
8T.Stephenson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	0-2	0	0	0
9S.Fairchild, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9S.Fairchild, LF	0-2	0	0	0