Reds vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - July 26, 2024

Reds at Rays

10:50 pm • BSOH

Cincinnati Reds

11-12

3 - 2

Tampa Bay Rays

9-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Baz			3.06	4-3
N.Lodolo			4.76	9-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 11-12	-1.5+160	o7.5-101	-109
Rays 9-13	+1.5-188	u7.5-117	-111

Friday 10:50 p.m.

July 26, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

S.Steer o0.5 HR+560

0.25u

Under 8.5 (Live)-110

0.45u

S.Baz To Record 8+ Strikeouts Yes+480

0.5u

S.Baz o5.5 Ks+115

1.73u

S.Baz To Record 7+ Strikeouts Yes+235

1.76u

CIN -107

N.Lodolo o6.5 Ks-111

Projection lands at 6.73 and a +ev pick giving us value at this number

CIN -107

2.8u

Under 7.5-105

0.48u

Flat to -105 or better

Featured Insight
The Reds have allowed just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season -- fourth lowest in MLB (49 games). The Rays have scored just 3.7 runs per game at home this season -- third lowest in MLB (54 games).

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Featured Insight
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games last season -- highest in MLB. The Reds allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games last season -- second highest in MLB.

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The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) after a win as underdogs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Rays are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Amed Rosario has an OPS of just .710 since the 2022 season -- 11th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .573 (703 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 11th best among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (3 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) -- tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 21% -- 10th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (6/26) against Shane Baz this month (3 games) -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% -- second Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (534/1,186) with two-strikes since the 2022 season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 0-3 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Rays' 19 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	8-14	8-11	0-3	6-9	2-4
Reds	13-10	7-5	6-5	4-3	9-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	9-11-2	8-9-2	1-2	7-6-2	2-4
Reds	12-10-1	5-6-1	7-4	2-4-1	9-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	9-13	9-10	0-3	8-7	1-5
Reds	11-12	6-6	5-6	4-3	7-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 25th	@TOR	W 13-0	-1.5 W	O 8	TB -105
Jul 24th	@TOR	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8	TOR -121
Jul 23rd	@TOR	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TB +110
Jul 22nd	@NYY	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 9	NYY +142
Jul 21st	@NYY	W 6-4	+1.5 W	O 9	TB +124

Josh Lowe
OF
Lowe is out with oblique
Out
Alex Faedo
P
Faedo is out with shoulder
Out
Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out with triceps
Out
Richie Palacios
IF
Palacios is out with knee
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out
Jonny DeLuca
OF
DeLuca is out with shoulder
Out

Tyler Stephenson
C
Stephenson is out with oblique
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
P
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LN.Lodolo, P	93	6.2	5	2
RF.Cruz, P	5	0.1	0	0
RN.Martinez, P	35	2	2	0
RA.Diaz, P	19	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-3	1	0
2E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0
4T.Friedl, CF	0-3	1	0
5J.Candelario, DH	1-4	0	2
5A.Slater, PR	0-0	1	0
5A.Slater, DH	0-0	1	0
6T.Stephenson, C	1-3	0	0
7J.Fraley, RF	0-2	0	0
7S.Fairchild, PH	1-2	0	1
7S.Fairchild, RF	1-2	0	1
8N.Marte, 3B	0-4	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Baz, P	86	6	7	2
LG.Cleavinger, P	14	0.2	1	0
RK.Kelly, P	5	0.1	0	0
RJ.Adam, P	12	1	3	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	17	1	1	0
RM.Rodriguez, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	1-5	0	0
2A.Rosario, RF	0-3	0	0
2J.Lowe, RF	0-1	0	0
3C.Mead, 3B	1-2	0	0
3R.Palacios, PH	0-2	0	0
3R.Palacios, 2B	0-2	0	0
3R.Palacios, 3B	0-2	0	0
4I.Paredes, DH	0-2	1	0
5J.DeLuca, LF	2-5	1	0
6J.Siri, CF	1-4	0	1
7J.Caballero, 2B	2-4	0	1
7J.Caballero, 3B	2-4	0	1
7J.Caballero, SS	2-4	0	1
8T.Walls, SS	0-3	0	0
8B.Lowe, PH	0-1	0	0
8B.Lowe, 2B	0-1	0	0
9A.Jackson, C	0-4	0	0