Tigers vs. Angels Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2025

I’ll be at the game tonight, so locking in a live sweat — and this feels like a sneaky buy-low spot. Hendricks has a 13.3% K rate this season (career worst), but my expected K% model puts him closer to 16.5%. He’s had a tough schedule with 4 of 5 starts on the road, and this sets up as his softest matchup yet (and at home). The Tigers may roll out 5+ lefties — and Hendricks has reverse splits, striking out LHBs at a 2% higher rate throughout his career. He leans on a sinker/changeup mix (nothing tops 88 mph) and relies more on disrupting timing as a way to get the occasional punch out. But that may actually work in his favor here — the Tigers just saw Jose Soriano’s 97 mph heat last night, and they have below-average whiff rates against fastballs and changeups. He just might be able to trip up a handful of hitters tonight. They also swing at the first pitch the 3rd most in MLB — which could either lead to early contact (keeping pitch count low) or foul balls that help him get ahead in counts and keep hitters guessing. I project this closer to -155 with a mild buy rating (+12.3 priority score). Let’s see if he can fool four.