White Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - April 24, 2023

White Sox at Blue Jays

11:07 pm • SN1

Chicago White Sox

0-0

2 - 5

Toronto Blue Jays

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Bassitt			3.60	16-8
L.Lynn			6.47	6-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
White Sox 0-0	+1.5-148	o9-105	+132
Blue Jays 0-0	-1.5+123	u9-115	-159

Monday 11:07 p.m.

April 24, 2023

Rogers CentreToronto

CWS +141

0.5u

Under 9-115

CWS +132

0.76u

TOR -1.5+120

CWS o3.5-120

CWS +0.5 (F5)-114

1.14u

CWS +0.5 (F5)+100

V.Guerrero Jr. o0.5 HR+500

0.2u

Bet at Bet365. Betting two Blue Jays to go yard for 0.2U each.

M.Chapman o0.5 HR+475

0.2u

Bet at Bet365. Two Blue Jays to go yard. Each at 0.2U.

V.Guerrero Jr. o0.5 RBI+170

0.5u

B.Belt o0.5 Total Bases-120

0.5u

CWS +144

0.8u

Available at FanDuel. My model puts the White Sox's win odds at 44.7%, up from 41.0% implied. This was a bit of a surprise for me as the numbers have been low on the White Sox basically all year. It may be due to the disconnect between Lance Lynn's results and some of his underlying numbers this year. His ERA is 7.59, but he has a quality strikeout rate without too many walks. He's letting up too much hard contact, which is why his expected ERA is 6.16, but that number takes a bit longer to stabilize than plate-discipline numbers. Chris Bassitt has logged two good starts in a row, but his velocity is down from last year. There's enough here for me to bite on the Sox at this number.

Over 9-105

0.53u

Bet to -123 or 9.5 (-104)

Over 4.5 (F5)-120

0.5u

Bet to 5 (-125)

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The Blue Jays are 16-15 (.516) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Matt Chapman has an OPS of 1.122 this season -- fourth best in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Lance Lynn has allowed an OPS of .942 (102 PAs) this season -- fifth worst among qualified SPs-- fifth Percentile.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slugging .577 on fastballs since last season -- eighth best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Lance Lynn has thrown fastballs 61% of the time since last season -- 10th highest among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (18 Total Bases / 24 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (9/63) against Chris Bassitt this season -- 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (30/173) against Chris Bassitt this season -- 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- sixth Percentile.

Lance Lynn has a first-pitch strike rate of 85% (46/54) -- highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37
White Sox	68-93	34-46	34-47	5-3	63-90

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3
White Sox	66-86-9	31-46-3	35-40-6	4-3-1	62-83-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53
White Sox	41-121	23-57	18-63	5-3	36-117

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 23rd	@NYY	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	TOR -135
Apr 22nd	@NYY	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 7	NYY +150
Apr 21st	@NYY	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TOR +115
Apr 20th	@HOU	L 1-8	-1.5 L	U 9	HOU -110
Apr 19th	@HOU	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 9	TOR -110

Max Scherzer
P
Scherzer is out with hamstring
Out
Bo Bichette
IF
Bichette is out with finger
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

Drew Thorpe
P
Thorpe is out with arm
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Lynn, P	101	5	4	4
RG.Santos, P	27	1	1	0
RK.Middleton, P	12	0.1	0	1
LJ.Diekman, P	24	1.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Robert, CF	0-3	1	0
2A.Benintendi, LF	2-3	1	0
3A.Vaughn, 1B	1-4	0	2
4E.Jimenez, DH	0-3	0	0
5Y.Grandal, C	0-3	0	0
6J.Burger, 3B	0-2	0	0
6G.Sheets, PH	0-1	0	0
6R.Gonzalez, 2B	0-0	0	0
7O.Colas, RF	0-4	0	0
8E. Andrus, SS	0-4	0	0
9L.Sosa, 2B	0-4	0	0
9L.Sosa, 3B	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Bassitt, P	98	6.1	4	2
RZ.Pop, P	15	1.1	1	0
LT.Mayza, P	6	0.1	1	0
RJ.Romano, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Bichette, SS	1-4	0	0	0
2V.Guerrero, DH	1-5	1	0	0
3D.Varsho, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4M.Chapman, 3B	1-4	0	0	1
5A.Kirk, C	0-1	1	0	0
6B. Belt, 1B	2-4	1	0	0
7W.Merrifield, 2B	1-2	1	0	1
8C.Biggio, RF	1-3	1	1	3
8G.Springer, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8G.Springer, RF	0-1	0	0	0
9K.Kiermaier, CF	1-2	0	0	0