Pacers vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - March 1, 2025

Pacers at Heat

1:00 am • FDSSUN

Indiana Pacers

34-25

120

120 - 125

Miami Heat

28-31

125

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pacers 34-25	-3	-3-110	o223-108	-148
Heat 28-31	u226.5	+3-110	u223-112	+124

Saturday 1:00 a.m.

March 01, 2025

Kaseya CenterMiami

Over 113.5 (2H)-124

1.24u

A.Nesmith o14.5 Pts+Rebs-118

1.18u

D.Mitchell u2.5 Rebs-132

0.66u

Can play this on FanDuel at -136 but I’m playing on Sleeper. Andrew Wiggins is out but I don’t think that impacts Mitchell’s rebounding anyway. He’s averaging 1.9 rebounds over 4.3 rebound chances per game with Miami. Projections have him at 1.98 rebounds and this is one of those sick bets you just make, close your eyes and hope he sees 4 rebound chances and doesn’t convert on 75% of them.

A.Nesmith o10.5 Pts-120

P.Siakam u32.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

1.15u

O.Toppin u11.5 Pts-135

MIA +4.5-109

MIA +150

1.5u

T.Herro u5.5 Rebs+100

B.Adebayo o19.5 Pts-110

A.Nesmith o13.5 Pts+Rebs-105

71% hit rate when he plays 20-33 minutes, projecting 27 mins tn. His minutes have been ramping up post ASB, he played 33 mins vs Denver, then dealt with 1H foul trouble against Toronto, where he only played 9.9 1H mins vs his previous 15.8, 16, 14.2 & 16.1 mins L4 games. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays 30+ mins. From a matchup perspective, the Heat allow the 6th most catch & shoot FGM L15, which is Nesmith’s #1 scoring play type, with a 36.7% frequency. Think the books are discounting his minutes & he has had solid history against this Heat team, lets cash Nesmith 😈 Would play 9.5 points as an alternative‼️

No props found

NBA Public Betting

Heat are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Heat are 12-20 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Heat' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 18 of Heat' 26 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	25-33-1	13-13	12-20-1	14-18	11-15-1
Pacers	29-29-1	14-13-1	15-16	16-18-1	13-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Heat	33-26	18-8	15-18	18-14	15-12
Pacers	33-26	16-12	17-14	17-18	16-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	28-31	N/A	N/A	19-13	9-18
Pacers	34-25	N/A	N/A	22-13	12-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Feb 27th	ATL	W 131-109	-3 W	O 229.5	MIA -157
Feb 25th	@ATL	L 86-98	+2.5 L	U 232.5	ATL +114
Feb 23rd	@MIL	L 113-120	+4 L	O 221	MIL +151
Feb 22nd	@TOR	W 120-111	-3.5 W	O 219.5	MIA -162
Feb 14th	@DAL	L 113-118	-3 L	O 218.5	DAL -154