Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 6, 2024

The Mavericks play the Warriors again and Luka Doncic is primed for another big night. Luka has been incredible since the All-Star Break and is averaging 33.0 Points, 10.4 Assists, and 10.1 rebounds in 20 games. Just the other day he secured a 30 points, 12 rebound, and 11 assist triple double when these two teams met. The stat I'm targeting tonight in the rematch is Luka's rebounds. In these 20 Post-ASB games he has exceeded 9.5 boards in 14/20 games. He's doing this on 14.1 rebound chances per game but in this game against the Warriors he had 16 rebound chances. The conversion rate is high, but considering the Warriors' personnel, this is not unreasonable. When these teams played on March 13, Luka only had 3 rebounds on just 5 chances but the Warriors played an entirely different rotation without Curry and Draymond, but with Chris Paul, Kuminga, Wiggins, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Tonight, Kuminga's status should be considered Questionable after missing his fifth-consecutive game on Thursday and Andrew Wiggins (ankle) exited Thursday's game with an ankle injury as well. The Warriors have been the second-best rebounding team post ASB but Luka gets all of those easy rebounds to help kickstart the offense in transition. Jackson-Davis has been an excellent offensive rebounder for the Warriors, but Kuminga and Wiggins are two of the team's best as well while Kevon Looney has fallen almost completely out of the rotation. On 0 Days of rest, Luka has exceeded this mark in 5/8 games this season including 3/3 after the ASB. Given his recent form and the familiar matchup, I expect Luka to exceed 9.5 rebounds, and don't mind a sprinkle on triple double (+260 FD) in an incredibly important game for both teams as they jockey for Playoff positioning.