Two teams fighting to stay alive. Two teams looking to slam the door shut.
The night tips off with the Pacers at Cavaliers (7:00 p.m. ET, Cleveland -7.5), where the Cavs try to dodge elimination at home. Then it’s Nuggets at Thunder (9:30 p.m. ET, OKC -10.5), a pivotal Game 5 in a deadlocked 2-2 series.
Big lines. Bigger stakes. Let’s bet. Here are our best bets from Buckets.
NBA Playoffs Best Bets From the Buckets Podcast for Tuesday, May 13
🎙️ Matt Moore
Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points
"Just keep betting it. They're gonna keep switching until Atkinson shows he's not gonna switch… which means Turner keeps scoring."
• 🏀 Moore emphasized that the Cavs’ defensive coverages (switching) create easy mismatches for Turner.
• Turner benefits from fouls drawn on small defenders and open corner help.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 11.5 Points
"Gave this one out for Game 4 — this is the Lidocaine handicap."
• Matt revealed MPJ is battling injury and likely cannot take another numbing injection until Game 6.
• 🧠 His limited mobility will hurt his scoring efficiency and volume again in Game 5.
Cavs Moneyline vs Pacers (if Donovan Mitchell plays)
"If Donovan Mitchell plays, I will bet Cavs Moneyline immediately for Game 5."
• 📈 He recommended being ready around 6:40 p.m. ET to catch lineup news and move quickly if Mitchell was cleared.
• Emphasized Mitchell’s MRI came back negative, increasing his confidence Mitchell would try to play.
Thunder -10 vs Nuggets
"This feels like Game 2 all over again. I like OKC -10 and minus 19.5 escalator."
• 🔥 Matt expects Thunder to land a blowout win with Denver pacing themselves for Game 6.
• He noted OKC likely gets at least three blowouts if they win the series.
Thunder -19.5 (Escalator Play)
"Not just OKC minus 10. OKC minus 19.5. I think they win comfortably in Game 5."
• 🏀 Moore expects this game to separate more than earlier close games based on script and energy advantages.
Cason Wallace Over 5.5 Points
"Cason Wallace is a guy I absolutely trust to hit these shots."
• Moore pointed out how Denver’s defensive weaknesses (especially in zone) allow spot-up shooters like Wallace to find clean looks.
• 🔥 Trusts Wallace’s mentality: “I think he is #builtdifferent 😤”
🧠 Brandon Anderson
Tyrese Haliburton Under 9.5 Assists / Under 8.5 Assists
“He's had four, five, and five assists the last three games. 12 potentials or less each time.”
• 📉 Even adjusting for blowout minutes, Brandon projects Haliburton to finish closer to 6–7 assists if playing full minutes.
• Played both Under 9.5 at heavier juice and Under 8.5 at plus money.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5/7.5 Assists (plus escalators)
“He had 19 potential assists in game four — the number is still bad.”
• Despite poor shooting from teammates, SGA is averaging 20 potential assists per game.
• 🔥 Over 6.5 assists and escalator to Over 7.5 for plus money.
Lu Dort 2+, 3+, and 4+ Made Threes (escalator)
“At home this season, Dort has hit two or more threes in 79% of games.”
• Made 2+ threes in all home playoff games.
• 📈 Escalator play:
– 2+ threes (baseline)
– 3+ threes (+168)
– 4+ threes (+450)
Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 or 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
“He's averaging almost 11 rebounds alone and 15 rebound chances per game.”
• AG is also racking up 5–6 assists in recent games as a point-center option.
• 🏀 Brandon recommended over 9.5 for a safer bet, or over 10.5 for better odds.
Denver Nuggets Series Escalator: +1.5 Series Spread (+105)
“We're basically just asking Denver to win one more game — not both.”
• If Denver wins Game 5 or Game 6, the bet cashes.
• He also suggested splitting small wagers on Denver in 6 (12-1) and Denver lose 5/win 6-7 (18-1) at BetMGM.
• 🏔️ Heavy focus on Denver still being very alive in the series despite Game 4 blowout loss.
📣 Gilles Gallant
Jamal Murray Over 19.5 Points
“In the playoffs, he averages 23 points per game — and he always bounces back after a bad game.”
• Murray’s point lines fluctuated lower after Denver’s Game 4 disaster, creating value.
• Gilles believes Denver will force-feed Murray more looks and minutes in Game 5.
• 🚀 "Expect at least a 40-minute night from Murray."
Pascal Siakam Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
“He's clearing it in three of four games already — and blowouts suppressed his minutes.”
• Siakam's averaging 10+ rebound chances and ~5 potential assists per game.
• 📈 Gilles highlighted that Siakam plays extended minutes to match Cavs' size, making this a strong volume play.
Max Strus Over 2.5 Made Threes
“Without Donovan Mitchell, Strus plays more minutes and jacks up threes.”
• In games without Mitchell, Strus averages 8+ three-point attempts and clears this line 75% of the time.
• 🎯 Even if Mitchell plays, Strus has hit over 2.5 threes in 6 of 8 playoff games this postseason.
