The NBA postseason action continues this Monday, April 27, with three pivotal matchups scheduled to shake up the bracket. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has been on a tear to start the playoffs, boasting a 9-2 record on his prop bets thus far.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his NBA Props for Jalen Suggs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic as we look to keep the momentum rolling tonight.
NBA Props for Monday, April 27
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Pistons vs. Magic Prop: Jalen Suggs
Jalen Suggs Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
Great time to buy-low on Jalen Suggs, who hasn’t cleared this in the first three games of the series and has just 11 assists total (3.67 per game).
But the underlying passing metrics tell a very different story. I have him closer to 18.6 expected assists over those three games.
His pass rate has actually ticked up slightly, but his teammates have let him down. They’ve passed up shots they’d normally take and are shooting an abysmal 37% on all attempts following a Suggs pass (this includes attempts that didn’t result in a potential assist).
Anthony Black and Desmond Bane have been the biggest culprits. Bane is somehow 0/6, including 0/5 from three, off Suggs passes. In Game 2 alone, Suggs generated two open Bane threes in the same possession and got nothing for it.
So while the box score says his assist rate has been down, he’s due for pretty significant positive regression, and hopefully it starts tonight.
I’m projecting him closer to 5.3 assists with around a 61% chance to clear 4.5.
Pick: Jalen Suggs Over 4.5 Assists (-115)
Thunder vs. Suns Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 Assists (-141)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared 7.5 in two of the first three games but this is a decent sell-high spot.
He’s obviously looking to score anytime he touches the ball, and when he does pass, it often turns into a shot. This season, 34% of his passes have led to potential assists, which is already elite. In this series, that number has jumped to a ridiculous 41%, and that’s where I’m expecting some regression in Game 4.
His pass rate is actually slightly down, and the Thunder are projected for 7 fewer points tonight than their average through three games, with roughly 3 fewer projected team assists as well. Just a tougher environment overall for him to rack up assists.
He has 24 assists through three games, but I have his expected number closer to 18.7 based on pass volume and pass mix, so he’s run quite a bit over expectation.
I was prepared to play under 6.5 at +108 with me projecting him closer to 6.4 assists tonight, but now that books have moved this to 7.5 and juiced the under to -141, I actually prefer this number. I have around a 65% chance he stays under.
The extra assist matters more here than usual here. Given SGA’s profile, lower pass volume for someone with his usage, extremely high potential assist rate, and teammates converting at around a 50% expected make rate, he tends to have a narrower range of outcomes. So getting from 6.5 to 7.5 is more valuable than it might look.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 Assists (-141)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prop: Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-105)
Nikola Jokic is absolutely popping as a buy-low in my Pass Mix analysis.
He has just 31 assists through 4 games on 60 potential assists, but he’s due for positive regression in just about every facet. His teammates have been letting him down on conversion rate, passing up shots they normally take, and he also has 8 adjusted assists, which includes potential assists lost to shooting fouls or hockey-style assists.
So, it’s not just one area running cold, it’s multiple.
The Nuggets are due for roughly 3 more assists tonight as a team, and a big chunk of that naturally flows through Jokic.
That makes this the ultimate buy-low on a guy who probably gets over money in 90%+ of games. This is one of the rare spots where the public may lean under (more than normal), or just stay away entirely, which makes it even more interesting.
I have him projected closer to 10.4 assists with around a 59% chance to clear 9.5, and it shapes up as one of the better buy-low spots you’ll get on Jokic.
