The NBA playoffs resume with a pair of Game 3s on Saturday, May 9 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for both of today's matchups: Pistons vs. Cavaliers and Thunder vs. Lakers.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, spread picks, and player props for Saturday's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Spread Picks, Player Props for Saturday, May 9
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Spread & Prop Bets
Cavaliers -4.5
I can't quit this team. I am still seeing a case for Cleveland hanging around, even if watching James Harden is maddening. These games have felt like carbon copies; Detroit feels like they’re dominating the energy and the crowd noise, but you look at the score and the Cavs are right there in the fourth quarter.
The difference is the efficiency. In Game 2, the Cavs were 55% on two-pointers, while the Pistons were 40%. In Game 1, it was 57% to 47%. Cleveland is still the much more efficient offense when they actually hold onto the ball.
Detroit shot 50% from three-point range in Game 2 (14-of-28), while Cleveland shot a pathetic 22% (7-of-32). If those numbers simply normalize, the Cavs win comfortably. Threes are variance; twos are predictive.
I’m taking Cavs -4.5, though it’s a smaller play because I’d rather invest in their futures. I’m doubling down on Donovan Mitchell Eastern Conference Finals MVP at 10-to-1 at FanDuel. If they win this series—which they can if they win their home games—they are live in the ECF. I think the narrative that the Cavs are "dead" is selling them too low.
Donovan Mitchell Points Escalator
I trust Donovan Mitchell’s scoring, specifically when the series shifts back to Cleveland. Since joining the Cavs, Mitchell has been an absolute beast at home. He averages 30.3 points per game at home in the playoffs compared to just 23.7 on the road.
The Cavs are desperate, and frankly, they can’t trust James Harden with the ball right now. This has to be a Mitchell game. He dropped 31 in Game 2 despite shooting a miserable 2-of-9 from deep. If those threes start falling at home, he is going to put up a massive number.
I’m skipping the median line of 25.5—it's just not efficient. When Donovan goes off, he really goes off. So, we are playing the escalator at DraftKings: 30+ (+211), 35+ (+556), and 40+ (+1460).
I’m not messing with the "Game Leader" markets because if Mitchell scores more, the Cavs win, which actually makes Cade Cunningham more likely to score in a loss. I don’t want to invite that extra variance. I just want Donovan points. He’s the only one on this team capable of creating his own shot late in the clock, and he’s going to take every shot he can handle in this spot.
Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 Rebounds
Our old friend! Ausar Thompson has recorded over 6.5 rebounds in eight of nine playoff games—basically every game except that brutal Game 7.
He only had seven boards in Game 2, but he was plagued by foul trouble the entire night and only saw 24 minutes of action. Despite that, he still cleared the line!
Thompson is averaging 8.8 rebounds on 14.5 chances over his last six games. The activity level is just too high for the books to keep the line this low.
I’m not looking at escalators here, but I am running back the 8+ rebounds per game for the series at +450 on DraftKings. We hit this exact bet last round, and right now he’s averaging 7.5, so he’s only one board off the pace.
If he stays out of foul trouble, his nose for the ball is unmatched. Detroit’s defense loves to junk things up, and Ausar is the primary beneficiary on the glass. He is the engine that keeps their transition game alive, and we’re going to keep backing him until the line reflects his output.
Jalen Duren Under 13.5 Points
Jalen Duren is one of the most frustrating players to watch. He looks like a superhero out there physically, but he simply isn’t putting that strength to use.
He has 56 rebounding chances through two games—by far the most in the series—but he’s only pulled in 22 boards. That’s a 39% conversion rate, which is just baffling stuff. Because his rebounding line is so juiced at 11.5, I’m getting creative.
Duren's scoring has plummeted in the postseason, averaging just 11.8 PPG. He has scored 12 points or less in eight of nine playoff games.
This dude cannot score points unless he is being spoon-fed dunks or getting put-backs. He doesn’t have much of a post-game; so if the Cavs limit the alley-oops, he has no way to hurt them.
I'm taking Under 13.5 Points at BetMGM. If you want to get really fun, parlay this with his rebound overs for some negative correlation. FanDuel is offering Under 13.5 points and 10+ rebounds at +167, which has hit in both games of this series so far.
Jaylon Tyson Rebounds Escalator
I know, betting on a role player in a pivotal Game 3 is a little dangerous, but the Cavs simply need his energy. The "three bigs" experiment with Dean Wade simply isn’t working, and the analytics are screaming for a change.
In this series, Tyson is a +7 on-court and a -22 off-court, creating a massive 29-point net rating swing. Compare that to Max Strus at -19, and it’s clear Kenny Atkinson has to keep Tyson on the floor.
Tyson played a playoff-high 22 minutes in Game 2, and the rebounding production is elite regardless of his scoring. He’s hauling in 74% of his rebounding chances over the last six games—that is pure hustle.
He’s a perfect 5-for-5 on this 3.5 line whenever he gets at least 16 minutes this postseason. If he touches the 25-minute mark, his regular-season profile suggests a 76% chance he goes over this number, having averaged 6 boards in those spots.
We are playing the escalator at DraftKings: 5+ (+186), 7+ (+670), and a nibble on 10+ (+2800). The missed shots are going to be there, and Tyson will chase down the 50-50 balls whenever he's out there.
Anderson's Pistons vs Cavaliers Picks
- Cavaliers -4.5
- Donovan Mitchell Points Escalator
- Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 Rebounds
- Jalen Duren Under 13.5 Points
- Jaylon Tyson Rebounds Escalator
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Thunder vs. Lakers Game 3 Props & Series Leader Picks
Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Steals & Blocks
The Thunder's bench is winning this series, and Cason Wallace is the engine. He was the primary defender on Austin Reaves in Game 2, and while Reaves scored points, he was a mess in terms of turnovers, coughing it up five times.
Wallace has recorded at least two steals & blocks in 6-of-6 playoff games, posting totals of of 2, 3, 3, 2, 4, and 2 "stocks" (steals + blocks). He is averaging 2.7 stocks per game.
I’m playing the Over 1.5 at -150 at Bet365. Steals and blocks are finicky. Sometimes a strip on the way up is a block, sometimes it’s a steal. By playing them together, you eliminate that gray area.
Wallace is a steals merchant, but he gets blocks too, providing a nice safety net. The only caveat is J-Dub’s health; if he returns, Cason might lose some fringe minutes, but he’s been so essential to their defense that I think his role is secure.
Caruso and Wallace are the reasons why the Lakers' offense stalls out. Wallace is in Reaves’ head, the refs aren’t giving L.A. calls, and Cason is right there to pick the pocket. He's the most consistent defensive role player in the series.
Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Assists / Series Assists Leader
Reaves is ramping up, with his minutes increasing three straight games to 38 last time out. He finally had his scoring breakout, but I’m focused on the creation. He’s hit exactly six assists in both games so far, but the potential assists are the story.
Reaves is the series leader in potential assists at 13.5 per game. That is 1.5 more than LeBron and five more than Marcus Smart. He is putting teammates in a position to score, and now that they’re back in L.A., those shooters should finally start converting those open looks.
We are getting +115 at BetMGM for Over 5.5 Assists. He’s hit six in both games, so we only need a repeat performance despite the potential upside.
I’m also firing on Series Assist Leader at 10-to-1 at DraftKings. SGA is four assists behind him with lower potential numbers, and Marcus Smart is only averaging eight potentials per game. This is a head-to-head race between Reaves and LeBron.
I’ll also play the 6+ Assists per game for the series at +220 at DraftKings. He's already at that number right now; getting +220 on a guy who should be priced at -125 is just bad math.
Anderson's Lakers vs Thunder Picks
- Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Steals & Blocks
- Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Assists / Series Assists Leader
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