The Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) and Los Angeles Lakers (0-2) will square off in Game 3 of their second-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Thunder -8.5), with the over/under set at 211.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -375 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is a +295 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Saturday, May 9.
Thunder vs Lakers Prediction
- Thunder vs Lakers pick: Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Assists (+110) / Series Assists Leader (+1000)
My Thunder vs. Lakers Game 3 best bet is on Austin Reaves to record over 5.5 assists, plus a sprinkle on Reaves to lead the series in assists. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Lakers Odds for Game 3
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 211.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 211.5 -110o / -110u | +295 |
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Thunder vs Lakers NBA Playoffs Preview
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview: The Inevitable Avalanche
The Thunder are in a fascinating spot. You watch these games and they never really feel like they’re struggling, but they also don’t feel like they’re in total control—they’re just coasting through double-digit leads. It seems like every time the Lakers make a push, OKC hits them with a 6-0 run and the lead is back to 12. They are an inevitable avalanche.
The depth is the real differentiator. The Thunder's bench is crushing the Lakers’ rotation. Between Cason Wallace’s ball pressure and the offensive efficiency of their secondary units, OKC has a floor that the Lakers simply can’t match.
What’s scary for L.A. is that the Thunder have won both games in this series despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being relatively quiet (18 points in Game 1).
Mark Daigneault is just 4-10 ATS as a road favorite; but the Thunder still have the ability to kick it into high hear and win by 25 on the road in Game 3 tonight.
Los Angeles Lakers Betting Preview: The Desperation Spot
If you’re betting the Lakers, this is the "Home 0-2" desperation spot. Historically, teams down 0-2 returning home for Game 3 cover the first-half spread at a 64% clip.
It is effectively "Lakers or nothing" tonight. The Lakers have defended SGA perfectly in this series, LeBron James is playing with incredible gravitas, and they still can’t stop the 15-0 bleeding.
The depth is a problem. Beyond the stars, LeBron is trying to drag a rotation over the finish line. If Reaves isn't scoring and LeBron isn't in full "Legacy Mode," they don't have a second pitch.
There's also the officiating drama—after the Game 2 dust-up, you have to wonder if the refs swallow their whistles on 50/50 calls for Reaves.
Thunder vs Lakers Picks, Betting Analysis
Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Assists (+110)
Reaves has been slowly but surely ramping up his workload, with his minutes increasing in three straight games to a series-high 38 minutes in Game 2. He finally had his scoring breakout with 31 points on 10-of-16 shooting last game, but more importantly for us, he’s consistently creating for others.
He has recorded exactly 6 assists in both games this series—clearing this line in three of four playoff games overall.
Reaves is currently the leader in potential assists for the entire second round at 13.5 per game. That’s slightly ahead of LeBron (13.0) and miles ahead of Marcus Smart (8.0), even though all three are currently tied at 6 assists per game on the box score. The data suggests Reaves should be averaging closer to 8 or 9.
Series Assists Leader: Austin Reaves (+1000)
I’m also backing Reaves to lead the series in assists at +1000. While he’s tied with LeBron and Smart right now, Smart's assist numbers are fake—his 8 potentials per game mean he's over-performing and likely to regress. SGA is 4 assists behind Reaves and only at 10.5 potentials.
This is effectively a head-to-head race between Reaves and LeBron. In a series that likely won't go the distance, a 10-to-1 ticket on the leader in assist opportunities is great value.
If you don't want to bet on Reaves to lead the series, you could also take the 6+ APG series average at +220. He’s already sitting at 6.0 assists right now, while technically underperforming his passing volume.
If the Lakers make a few more shots at home, there's a good chance he stays above this number. I’d price this closer to -125, so getting +220 is a steal.
Brandon Anderson's Thunder vs Lakers Best Bets
- Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Assists (+110)
- Series Assists Leader: Austin Reaves (+1000)
