Miami (FL) vs. SMU Odds & Betting Predictions - March 5, 2026

Wednesday Best Bet. I hate that BJ Edwards is out for this game, but man SMU is such a perfect matchup against Miami. I also think SMU has now had proper preparation with Edwards being out for almost 10 days. They had a quick turnaround at Stanford after losing Edwards during the Cal game, and it showed as they got destroyed by Stanford. Those California road trips are already hard, but losing one of your best players during it makes it even tougher. I’ll cut SMU some slack for those performances. Not to mention, SMU is one of the worst road teams in the country. They rank 327th in Hasla Metrics away from home stat and are just 3-7 away from Dallas. However, at home they have been incredibly good. They currently have a 15-2 home record with wins over North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Louisville. Despite missing Edwards, I still think SMU matches up well against the Hurricanes. First of all, Miami cannot shoot the ball, and that is where the SMU defense usually gets burnt. The Mustangs defense gives up the 17th most three pointers in the entire country and the most in the entire ACC. While this is concerning against teams that can shoot, Miami doesn’t fit that mold. Miami is 16th in the ACC in three point percentage at just 31.7%. Miami also clearly does not like to shoot the three ball, as they attempt them at the 25th lowest rate in the nation. Miami wants to get all of their points down low, but SMU’s defense is built to take that away. SMU allows two pointers at the lowest rate in the entire ACC. They have also been good at avoiding fouling, which is big against a Miami team that wants to bully you down low. Miami could have some success on the offensive glass, but I think SMU will make it a priority to clog the paint and have as many bodies around the rim as possible. If this game turns into a shooting battle, it clearly points to the Mustangs. Miami does like to get into transition and has been effective on the run, but SMU allows transition looks in just the 32nd frequency percentile. Defensively, Miami is solid, but they’ve shown some regression as of late. In ACC play they are just 15th in effective field goal percentage allowed and are allowing teams to shoot 36.3% from deep. That’s concerning against the second most efficient offense in the ACC and the best three point shooting team in the conference. Again, I hate that BJ Edwards is out, but I think Miller, Washington, and Pierre can do enough shot making to win this. Also, if we look at Miami’s ACC schedule, it really hasn’t been all that difficult. SMU has faced the 63rd toughest strength of schedule while Miami has faced just the 92nd toughest. Our model has SMU winning this game 82.52 to 76.55 for a fair spread of 5.97. After two straight losses, I’m ready to buy low on SMU in a big tournament seeding game at home.