The Mountain West has been one of the most intriguing and surprising conferences in college basketball this season, and tonight, there's a big matchup between the San Diego State Aztecs and Colorado State Rams.
There's clear betting value in this game as well, so here's our college basketball best bets and our staff's four top picks for Tuesday, Jan. 30.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marquette vs. Villanova
This feels like a do-or-die spot for Villanova after it dropped its last four games.
The Wildcats have some big wins on their resume over the likes of North Carolina, Memphis, Creighton and Texas Tech, but they barely sit over .500 at 11-9.
To get back into the NCAA tournament picture, Kyle Neptune’s team needs to start stacking together wins, and this is a prime opportunity against a good Marquette team.
When these two teams met a few weeks back on MLK Day, Marquette got it done at home, but the Wildcats found a lot of success offensively, knocking down 14 3s.
What did them in was double-digit turnovers against Shaka Smart’s swarming defense.
I expect the Nova guards to take better care of the ball tonight and come out with their hair on fire with their backs against the wall.
Marquette has been hot of late and is starting to hit its stride, but the Golden Eagles haven't been the same team on the road in Big East play.
Give me the Wildcats to get it done at home tonight and cover as a small favorite.
Pick: Villanova -1.5 (Play to -2)
Buffalo vs. Ohio
The Ohio Bobcats (10-10, 4-4) will host the Buffalo Bulls (2-17, 1-6) tonight in Athens, Ohio, looking to carry forward their positive momentum after defeating Kent State on the road last Friday.
The languishing Bulls will look to end a road trip with a victory, but that may be a tall order after dropping six straight. The last Buffalo win and sole conference victory dates back to Jan. 2 when it beat Central Michigan, 76-64.
Ohio enters this game with a significant statistical advantage in nearly every category. Importantly, the Bobcats are the more efficient team on offense, ranking 132nd nationally and third in the MAC with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 107.6.
Senior guard Jaylin Hunter leads the Bobcats with 13.6 points (41.1%) and 4.7 assists per game. Hunter is bolstered in the backcourt by Shereef Mitchell, who’s averaging 13.5 points per game, while forward AJ Clayton adds 11.5 points.
The trio of Hunter, Mitchell and Clayton should have a relatively easy time finding the bottom of the net against a Bulls defense that ranks last in the MAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Buffalo allows 113.8 points per 100 possession this season, putting it at 330th.
The story on offense isn’t any better for the Bulls. They’re also the least efficient offense in the MAC and rank 333rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
Scoring just 95.2 points per 100 possession, some of the troubles can be traced to a lack of 3-point productivity, with Buffalo making just 25.2% of its attempts from beyond the arc.
My model is projecting Ohio as a 17.5-point favorite in this game, and I think this represents strong value with three points of protection in the current market. In addition to a model advantage in this game, our Action Network PRO Report has tracked sharp money coming in on the Bobcats as well.
I like backing Ohio at home here because it’s the more complete team and should be able to take advantage of a tired Buffalo squad as it closes out a two-game road trip.
I recommend laying the chalk at 15.5 or better.
Pick: Ohio -14.5 (Play to -15.5)
San Diego State vs. Colorado State
Colorado State -2.5
By D.J. James
Colorado State enters Tuesday on a two-game losing streak and desperately needs a marquee win at home over San Diego State.
The Rams have been primarily an offensive-focused team. They can shoot from inside and out, but the defense has shown holes.
Still, CSU hits almost 36% from downtown and almost 58% from inside the arc.
Although SDSU limits opponents to under 30% from deep, the Aztecs allow a lot of 3-point attempts. On the season, SDSU ranks 104th in Defensive Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality. Meanwhile, CSU ranks in the top 50 on offense.
Additionally, the Aztecs rank 126th in 2-point percentage allowed, and their Rim-and-3 Rate ranks 188th. Simply put, the Rams can make up for their lack of defense by scoring from anywhere in the half court.
Now, Colorado State has had issues on the glass this season, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Aztecs have similar issues, so rebounding could go either way.
Finally, San Diego State can draw fouls on offense, but it has a tendency to foul on the other end. The Aztecs will likely win the battle at the line, but Colorado State shoots better overall and has the advantage of being at home.
Take Colorado State’s superior offense at home, and play it to -3.
Pick: Colorado State -2.5 (Play to -3)
Colorado State -2.5
By John Feltman
The best spot on the board, arguably for the entire month, takes place tonight in Fort Collins, Colorado.
The Mountain West Conference continues to produce absolute chaos each week, and what better way to continue that trend than with a Rams victory on Tuesday?
The Rams blew an 11-point lead with roughly one minute to go in their contest at Wyoming on Saturday. They’re now 3-4 in conference play, and now, it’s suddenly panic time.
With their backs against the wall, I have confidence that the Rams will pull out all of the stops to secure the victory. In these types of situations, that’s usually the signal for the upperclassmen on a team to step up.
Seniors Isaiah Stevens and Nique Clifford can take control of the game on both ends of the floor.
The Aztecs have been extremely fortunate defending the triple, which means regression is coming their way.
The Rams may struggle to defend inside against the Aztecs, but their offensive firepower from deep has more than enough potential to carry them over the top.
It’s now or never for Colorado State, and I expect its best effort of the year at home in a tremendous bounce-back opportunity.
