We have a loaded slate on Tuesday in college basketball, spotlighted by No. 1 Tennessee traveling to Gainesville to take on the No. 8 Florida Gators.
Our staff is targeting three games to add to your betting card.
So, here's college basketball best bets, odds, picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 7.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
St. John's vs. Xavier
Have we hit the bottom of the market on Xavier? The Musketeers have lost six of their past nine, posting a 1-3 Big East record to start the conference season.
To be fair, four of their past five losses have come on the road, including battles with two KenPom top-30 teams, Cincinnati and UConn. Their lone home defeat was a two-point loss to KenPom No. 10 Marquette (after closing as four-point underdogs).
On the contrary, things are going well in Rick Pitino’s world. The Red Storm are 3-1 in conference play, although the wins have come over DePaul, Providence and Butler, while they also dropped a road game to Creighton by one.
While St. John’s is a borderline elite team, the Red Storm are due for a loss against a step up in competition. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are battle-tested, and they’re due for a home win after a demanding early-season conference schedule.
In short, the situational spot screams Xavier.
I also don’t mind the matchup.
The key to beating St. John’s is to keep it out of transition and off the boards. Xavier is an elite transition-denial defense (8.4 transition PPG allowed, 15th nationally) and a borderline-elite defensive rebounding team (74% defensive rebounding rate, 29th).
The other end of the court is where things get tricky. Xavier is a pace-and-post offense, running an up-tempo, transition-heavy offense that plays through Zach Freemantle down low.
But the Johnnies are also a rock-solid transition-denial defense (10.5 transition PPG allowed, 91st nationally), and Pitino’s matchup zone effectively denies the post (3.1 post-up possessions per game allowed, 37th).
That said, the Musketeers do an excellent job spacing the floor around Freemantle, with Ryan Conwell, Dayvion McKnight and Marcus Foster all shooting over 39% from 3. The Musketeers rank among the top 20 offenses in ShotQuality’s Spacing and Shot Making metrics, so I don’t think their near-40% 3-point rate is a fluke.
The Johnnies don’t allow many 3s, but any matchup zone defense will be vulnerable against elite spacing and weak-side shooting. St. John’s defense ranks sub-300th nationally in the same Spacing and Shot Making metrics, so I believe opponents can continue canning close to 35% from deep.
All in all, I like the spot and schematic matchup for Xavier.
My one worry is Kadary Richmond’s dribble penetration and mid-range shooting ability against Xavier’s drop-coverage defense, which will allow plenty of opportunities in the middle of the court.
But the Red Storm often are forced to work in the mid-range because they’re not a great shooting team, so they’re over-reliant on low-efficiency 2s in crowded lanes.
As a result, their half-court offense is merely average (.91 PPP, 48th percentile), making Xavier’s elite transition-denial more critical.
For what it’s worth, ShotQualityBets’ model projects the Musketeers as five-point home favorites.
Pick: Xavier +1.5 (Play to PK)
Kentucky vs. Georgia
With all the buzz atop the SEC, teams in the middle of the pack — like Georgia — continue to fly under the radar.
It’s officially basketball season in Athens after the Bulldogs' quarterfinal exit in the CFP, and fans have a reason to be excited about this group.
Mike White’s team is 12-2, with wins over St John’s and Notre Dame, and the only two losses coming to ranked teams, Marquette and Ole Miss.
The Dawgs are inside the top 30 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings and do a really good job of making opponents work for points on each trip down the floor.
Meanwhile, in Lexington, Kentucky is also 12-2, but the Wildcats have been a little bit more inconsistent than other top-10 teams.
Tonight will also be only the second true road game for UK, and the first one resulted in a loss to Clemson back in December.
As prolific as Kentucky is offensively, this is a group that has really struggled on the defensive end on plenty of occasions to this point.
The Wildcats haven't shot the basketball as well away from Rupp Arena, and I expect Stegeman Coliseum to be rocking tonight.
Kentucky has the more talented roster, but I don’t believe that’s by all that wide of a margin, and with Georgia at home and getting a few points, I see enough value in the Bulldogs.
Give me the Dawgs with the 2.5.
Pick: Georgia +2.5 (Play to +2)
Nebraska vs. Iowa
The Hawkeyes were a popular pick at the opening number of just -1.5, with the spread ballooning as high as 4.5 at some books.
It can still be had at Caesars at -4, where it still has plenty of value.
There’s two reasons I like Iowa to cover here.
The first comes in the paint, where the Hawkeyes' defense struggles. Iowa allows a ton of opportunities at the rim, partially because of its struggles to clean the defensive glass.
Nebraska is merely average at scoring at the rim and even worse at attacking offensive rebounds. In three Big Ten games this season, the Huskers are averaging five offensive boards, worst in the 18-team conference.
In a bigger sample size of the full season, Nebraska hasn't been much better, ranking 301st in offensive rebounds per game.
The second reason to nab Iowa in this spot comes simply because the game is at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where Iowa has been reliable in recent years.
Since 2017, Iowa is 64-42-2 ATS as a home favorite. That number has been consistent over Fran McCaffery’s entire tenure, with his Iowa teams covering as a home favorite over 60% of the time.
On the other side, Fred Hoiberg is just 18-27 ATS as a road ‘dog while coaching the Huskers.
Pick: Iowa -4
