NCAAB Best Bets, Odds: 4 Predictions, Picks for Tuesday’s Games

NCAAB Best Bets, Odds: 4 Predictions, Picks for Tuesday’s Games article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida)

We have nine ranked teams in action in college basketball on Tuesday, including the biggest matchup of the night — UNC vs. No. 7 Florida in the Jumpman Invitational.

Our staff is targeting three particular games and four bets to help you fill out your betting card.

So, here's college basketball best bets, including four predictions and picks for Tuesday, December 17.


NCAAB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
DePaul Blue Demons LogoSt. John's Red Storm Logo
6:30 p.m.
Clemson Tigers LogoSouth Carolina Gamecocks Logo
7 p.m.
North Carolina Tar Heels LogoFlorida Gators Logo
7 p.m.
North Carolina Tar Heels LogoFlorida Gators Logo
7 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

DePaul vs. St. John's

DePaul Blue Demons Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 17
6:30 p.m. ET
Peacock
St. John's Red Storm Logo
DePaul +12.5
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

By Tanner McGrath

Rick Pitino-led defenses sell out on dribble penetration help, meaning the Johnnies are vulnerable against offenses with five-out spacing and shot-making. When defenses send help early, you can exploit the weak side with cross-court passes to wide-open jump shooters before the scrambling defenders rotate.

Well, Chris Holtmann's Blue Demons run an elite five-out offense.

The Blue Demons are an attack-and-kick, pick-and-pop, catch-and-shoot reliant squad, especially with Davidson transfer David Skogman shooting nearly 49% from 3 at the five.

They rank seventh nationally in 3-point rate (52%) and 11th in 3-point shooting (40%), and they are not due for much negative regression because they rank second nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric and 20th in their Shot Making metric.

This isn’t your father’s DePaul. These Demons can hoop.

That said, I’m worried about their ball handling with Connor Enright settling the table. He has been turning the ball over like crazy in the early going (3.2 per game at a 32% rate), which could hurt against the Red Storm’s chaotic on-ball pressure.

But that might not be a big deal if DePaul's transition defense can hold up.

The Johnnies attempt to turn defense into offense by turning turnovers into fast-break points, and they are elite in both regards.

The Demons haven't played a difficult schedule, but they grade out well above average in transition defense.

Wichita State is another up-tempo squad, and DePaul held the Shockers to only 12 transition points at .71 PPP last Saturday, which gives me confidence it can slow down the Johnnies in the open court.

And if you can slow the Johnnies down, you can shut them down because their half-court offense is a mess.

St. John’s lacks floor spacing and shooting. Kadary Richmond is a stud two-way guard, but he loves to peddle around in the middle of the floor. The Red Storm's top four scorers are shooting under 30% from 3 combined.

As a result, the Johnnies spend too much time sprinting into crowded lanes for low-efficiency, closely-contested mid-range and high-paint jumpers. They rank 266th nationally in Rim-and-3 rate.

Thus, St. John’s is reduced to rim-running cuts and crashing the offensive glass, which isn't a positive because DePaul is among the nation’s best cut-denial defenses (3.4 cutting points per game allowed, third nationally) that ranks in the top 50 nationally in defensive rebounding rate.

St. John's is an elite offensive rebounding squad, ranking 13th nationally in offensive rebounding rate while generating 15 second-chance points per game.

But I think the Demons can keep the Johnnies off the glass — Texas Tech is another elite offensive rebounding squad, and the Blue Demons held the Red Raiders to eight second-chance points on eight offensive rebounds two weeks ago.

Ultimately, DePaul should trade high-efficiency, unguarded 3s for low-efficiency, guarded 2s, and that should be enough to keep this game tight for 40 minutes. Perhaps the Blue Demons earn enough positive shooting variance to earn their first Big East Conference victory in 33 tries (their last one came against Xavier in January 2023).

Our Action PRO Model projects St. John’s as just a 10-point home favorite on Tuesday. EvanMiya and Bart Torvik project the spread between 10 and 11, while Haslametrics projects it closer to five.

There’s plenty of value in these new-look Demons.

Pick: DePaul +12.5 (Play to +12)


Clemson vs. South Carolina

Clemson Tigers Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 17
7 p.m. ET
SEC Network
South Carolina Gamecocks Logo
Clemson -1.5
DraftKings  Logo

By Mike McNamara

Clemson lost a tough one in overtime at home to Memphis on Saturday, but I think the Tigers bounce back on Tuesday against their in-state rival.

Brad Brownell’s team has really been putting the ACC on its back the last two years in non-conference play, and I think it enjoys that badge of honor as the conference continues to struggle.

Meanwhile, the SEC has been off-the-charts good in 2024, and South Carolina is really the only team in the league that has not had a signature win.

Clemson should have plenty of motivation to get a victory for the ACC, just as it did against Kentucky in a challenge the SEC won 14-2.

On the court, I give the Tigers a significant advantage on the interior, with both Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin continuing to feast on the backboards.

Both can also score it in a number of different ways, and I don’t know that the Gamecocks have an answer for either in the paint.

Beyond that, Chase Hunter is as experienced as pretty much any guard in the country and should be able to get to his spots and knock down shots while also distributing for his teammates.

Ultimately, I view Clemson as a much more complete team than South Carolina, and the Tigers have been very good as a road team going back the last 18 months.

Give me the Tigers to win and cover in Columbia.

Pick: Clemson -1.5 (Play to -2.5)


North Carolina vs. Florida

North Carolina Tar Heels Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 17
7 p.m. ET
ESPN
Florida Gators Logo
UNC +4
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

By John Feltman

This is the peak of the market for Florida. It's off to a terrific 10-0 start, and there should not be any confusion as to why it is one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the nation.

The Gators will be tested on Tuesday as a struggling Tar Heels team will host a semi-home game at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. The Heels need a big win in the worst way, and I have a feeling they will throw the kitchen sink at the Gators.

As terrific as the Gators have been thus far, they are due for serious regression on both sides of the floor. According to ShotQuality, their defense is not as strong as the numbers suggest, and they should have at least two losses.

A legitimate concern lies on the defensive glass, as they have allowed a fair amount of offensive rebounds thus far despite being a lengthy, athletic group. The Heels are not the best offensive rebounding group, which is no surprise after losing Armando Bacot.

The Gators also do not force many turnovers, which is a nightmare against one of the country's fastest offenses. The Heels will run all night long, and the only true way to slow them down is to create a ton of on-court pressure and mistakes.

I don't believe the Gators will be able to do that.

Everybody is quick to judge the Heels' defense, and rightfully so. However, underlying trends suggest that their opponents' 3-point percentage is slightly inflated, and I expect them to force more turnovers in the future. Even with their limited size, they still rank 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Also, the Heels are shooting 33% from deep, and between RJ Davis and Seth Trimble, I would expect that percentage to increase as the season progresses.

Also, who have the Gators beaten on their schedule? They have decent wins against Wake Forest and Arizona State, but that is all.

As a Florida alumnus, I have no issues stating that the Gators are in for a rude awakening on Tuesday, and I do not think their offense will be able to keep up.

I absolutely love the Tar Heels in a terrific buy-low, sell-high spot, and I will probably dip my toes in the over, as well.

These two teams played last season in Chapel Hill and UNC won 100-92.

Pick: UNC +4 (Play to +2.5)


North Carolina vs. Florida

North Carolina Tar Heels Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 17
7 p.m. ET
ESPN
Florida Gators Logo
Walter Clayton Jr. Over 18.5 Points
FanDuel Logo

By Alex Hinton

The Gators have gotten off to a 10-0 start to begin this season. On Tuesday, they will head to Charlotte to take on a reeling North Carolina team in the Jumpman Invitational.

With a high total, I will be backing Florida’s star point guard Walter Clayton Jr.

Clayton is just hitting this line on average, as he is averaging 19.1 points per game, which has been aided by his last four games. He has cleared this line in each of his past four games while averaging 23 points per night. That includes matchups against high-major opponents such as Wake Forest, Virginia and Arizona State.

North Carolina has a top-40 defense entering this matchup, but Clayton will be quite comfortable on Tuesday. North Carolina lacks a rim protector and is averaging just 3.9 blocks per game. Once Clayton gets past his defender, there will be little resistance at the rim.

Additionally, the Tar Heels are 219th in 3-point percentage defense and 303rd in turnover percentage defensively. Clayton is 37.5% on nearly nine 3-point attempts per game this season.

In two of its last three games, North Carolina has allowed 20 points to Alabama’s Mark Sears and Georgia Tech’s Lance Terry.

I expect Clayton to join that group on Tuesday.

Pick: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 18.5 Points (-125) | Play to Over 20.5

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