There's plenty of value to be found on Championship Saturday.
I'm looking at two games where the market totals are way off the projections.
Read on for our College Basketball Predictions and model-based picks for Saturday, March 14.
College Basketball Predictions
Florida vs Vanderbilt Pick
Florida and Vanderbilt meet in the SEC Tournament semifinals, and the high total of 160.5 seems overinflated given the defensive intensity and physical nature typically seen at this stage of the tournament.
While their January regular-season meeting was a high-scoring outlier with 192 total points, both teams have shown a significant shift toward defense in the postseason.
Florida is coming off a dominant defensive performance against Kentucky, where the Gators held the Wildcats to just 35.6% shooting and forced 12 turnovers in a gritty 71–63 victory.
Similarly, Vanderbilt’s semifinal win over Tennessee ended at 154 total points, with the Commodores holding the Volunteers to a meager 25% from beyond the arc.
Florida currently ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom, and their ability to control the glass — averaging a +15.7 rebounding margin — should limit Vanderbilt’s second-chance opportunities and keep the pace under control.
With both teams likely to be playing with tired legs in their third game in as many days, a repeat of their regular-season pace is unlikely.
Pick: Under 160.5
Arizona vs Houston Pick
In a loaded college basketball slate today, the Arizona Wildcats and the Houston Cougars meet in the Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Championship.
Arizona comes in with one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 86.4 points per game and ranking seventh nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom.
Keep an eye on Anthony Dell'Orso, who is coming off a 26-point performance in the semifinal and also scored 22 points the last time these teams met in February.
Houston is typically known for playing at a slower tempo, but the Cougars remain dangerous because of their efficiency and ability to create extra possessions, forcing nearly 15 turnovers per game.
One player who can quickly change the game is Emanuel Sharp. The guard averages 15.5 points per game and leads Houston from beyond the arc, hitting 2.6 three-pointers per game at a 37.3% clip.
Pick: Over 137.5
