College basketball scheduling becomes increasingly more important as the rigors of conference play start to wear on these teams, so I'm writing my second weekly article pertaining to situational spots we'll see in the days ahead.
These spots will give us betting opportunities, which I'll outline below. So, here's college basketball predictions and picks, including eight NCAAB situational spots to target this week.
- Last Week: 3-1 Overall (1-2 Quick Hitters)
Boston College vs. Duke
This could be a tricky spot to lay a ton of points, as the Blue Devils just played a very tough road game at Virginia Tech and have UNC on the road on Saturday.
The lookahead spot is real. I'm also worried about laying too many points in this situation, as Boston College has played some pretty spirited defense and ranks 19th in aggregate defensive field goal efficiency nationally.
Donald Hand is capable of popping off for 20 points at any time for Boston College, and the Eagles protect the basketball well.
Boston College is catching a boatload of points in this one (Caesars has this spread at Duke -28), and this could be a spot where the Eagles keep the game closer than expected.
While Boston College hasn't seen a tremendous amount of success in the win column in ACC play, the Eagles have played five opponents to within 13-point margins.
Pick: Boston College +28
Wyoming vs. San Diego State
Wyoming has been a mess since entering league play shortly before Christmas, and a four-game losing streak over a 10-day stretch this month has sounded the alarm bells for Sundance Wicks and the Cowboys.
The Pokes were in such a “get up” spot in their last game, a home date with Colorado State in the Border War. That was potentially the last installment of the storied rivalry in Laramie, WY, for some time. Colorado State and Wyoming don't like each other very much, and with it being a rivalry game, it magnified the spot.
With Colorado State moving to the revitalized Pac-12 next year, imminent plans to continue the series aren't guaranteed.
Now Wyoming has to hit the road to San Diego State, which is coming off of a loss to Utah State in a game the Aztecs absolutely gave away. This should be a nice rebound spot for them.
The Aztecs' defense should be able to force Wyoming into turnovers, and I would expect the Pokes to struggle against this defense. Elzie Harrington and Magoon Gwath have missed the last couple of games with injury, and while Gwath may be out another week or two, Harrington may give it a go for San Diego State.
That's added boost to say the least.
I'll look to lay up to 11 with the Aztecs here.
Pick: San Diego State -11
Lipscomb vs. Austin Peay
Austin Peay has been the class of the ASUN, sitting at 9-1 in league play. The lone blemish was a four-point road loss at the hands of Lipscomb.
This upcoming game will be critical for both teams as we progress into the late stages of the ASUN season. I want to back the Governors here, though.
Austin Peay is very athletic on the wings and the on-ball pressure applied by the Governors' high-impact defense should get Lipscomb out of rhythm early in the possession clock.
The Bisons play at a quicker pace, and this one could be a track meet, similar to the first meeting. However, Lipscomb is playing far from its best basketball right now.
It took overtime to squeak by Stetson, and the Bisons also snuck past North Florida in a game they trailed by as many as 12 points in. They also suffered a five-point loss at Jacksonville in a game the Bisons trailed by 20 points in.
Austin Peay is undefeated at home this season, while Lipscomb is just 4-8 on the road. Laying less than three points is what we're projecting for Austin Peay, which, at that price, would warrant a bet.
Pick: Austin Peay ATS
William & Mary vs. UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington played its worst eight-minute stretch of basketball of the season a couple of weeks back. The Seahawks found themselves down 30-8 early in the first half against the Tribe in the first meeting between these two CAA powers.
In that game, Christian May and Madison Durr were both in foul trouble early for the Seahawks, making the comeback that was mounted difficult to complete.
UNC Wilmington has since put together two gritty road wins at Hampton and Towson over the last week, while William & Mary has dropped two decisions to Elon and Campbell.
The Tribe's defense has been one of the worst in the CAA and could get eaten alive along the interior. UNC Wilmington has been very aggressive in getting to the line, and the Seahawks lead the conference in offensive free-throw rate.
In this game, I would expect a concerted effort to get to the line early and often.
With a projected spread of 4.5, I'll look to lay it with the Seahawks.
Pick: UNC Wilmington ATS
Western Illinois vs. Tennessee Tech
While sitting at 0-12 in Ohio Valley play, the Leathernecks are certainly struggling to find a ton of motivation at this point in the season.
Western Illinois has one of the worst offensive basketball teams in the entire country. It's 363rd nationally in effective field goal percentage on offense, and the long ball is virtually non-existent.
It doesn’t shoot a ton of 3-point shots and the ones it does chuck up don't go in. The Leathernecks have just three players who have made more than seven 3-point shots all season.
This isn't a strong passing team, and the offense goes through long periods of stagnation.
Tennessee Tech has been nearly as bad offensively this season, as the Golden Eagles can't shoot the deep ball, they struggle with turnovers and their post play is subpar.
The first meeting between these two finished 59-54 in a game that played to 63 total possessions. With Tennessee Tech having slowed the pace down significantly in OVC play, I feel a similar final score is likely.
Current projections have this total likely to come out around 139.5, and I'll seek to bet the under.
Pick: Under Total Points
UC San Diego vs. Hawaii
UC San Diego has been in free fall, as the offense has scored just 59, 48 and 64 points in its last three games, all conference losses.
After a hot 11-2 start to the season, the Tritons have slid back in the Big West race.
Meanwhile, Hawaii is one of the top defensive teams in the Big West, and the Bows have the size and skill in the defensive post to dictate the terms and get UC San Diego off its game offensively.
I would expect the Tritons to struggle in this spot, and there should be a bit of extra motivation for Hawaii after dropping the first meeting between these two programs.
Dre Bullock has elevated his play and is coming off a 26-point effort against Long Beach State, and Isaac Johnson can impact the game on both ends of the floor.
Hawaii is 13-1 at home this season, and with a projected spread of -5, I'll look to lay it with the Bows.
Pick: Hawaii ATS
NCAAB Situational Quick-Hitters
Liberty vs. Delaware Under Projected 136.5
Wednesday, Feb. 4 | 7 p.m. ET
These two played to a 67-51 outing with 60 total possessions in the first meeting, a game won by Liberty.
The Flames have slowed their tempo even more since hitting C-USA play, playing games with 58, 60 and 61 total possessions.
Delaware will absolutely oblige the pace, so this could be one of the slowest tempo games of the entire season.
Delaware will struggle against the Flames' defense, as the Blue Hens aren't equipped with the shooters needed to knock down the 3-ball with regularity.
Delaware should see very little in the way of offensive rebounding, and free-throw shooting will be virtually non-existent. To support that, Liberty fouls at the 13th-lowest rate in the country, and Delaware is just 332nd nationally in offensive free-throw rate.
I don't expect the offensive efficiency to exceed the projected total, which is at 136.5.
Quinnipiac (Projected -13) vs. Canisius
Thursday, Feb. 5 | 7 p.m. ET
Quinnipiac should shred Canisius at home, and I would anticipate Amarri Monroe and Jaden Zimmerman to feast in this matchup.
Canisius can't shoot well on the interior and the Golden Griffins struggle with turnovers, a scenario likely to be magnified on the road.
Quinnipiac shouldn't allow second-chance points. Also, turnovers could become a problem for Canisius, as they have all season. The Golden Griffins rank 330th nationally in turnover percentage and 359th in 2-point shooting.
I'm looking to lay it with Quinnipiac, which has four days to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, Canisius will be playing its fourth game in six calendar days and will likely have tired legs in the second half.
