We have one of the most anticipated games of the college basketball non-conference schedule coming on Friday, December 1 as Kansas hosts UConn at Allen Fieldhouse.
This top-five battle deserves a detailed look from our staff, so we have Kansas vs. UConn predictions, including spread and total picks for December 1.
Dive in now and get ready for this massive Big East-Big 12 tilt.
Kansas vs. UConn Predictions
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Kansas vs. UConn
Kansas -2
By D.J. James
Without Stephon Castle, the backcourt of the UConn Huskies will be a bit short-handed for this marquee game on the road at Kansas.
The Jayhawks have two top-15 KenPom wins over Kentucky and Tennessee. They did drop a game to Marquette, but the Golden Eagles look like a true top-five team at the moment.
That said, KU may have the edge in this one.
Hunter Dickinson can match up with Donovan Clingan and at least trade buckets. UConn can rebound from any position, ranking sixth and eighth in rebounding offensively and defensively, respectively, per KenPom. The Jayhawks rank 26th and 96th, respectively, but again, Dickinson should help here.
UConn, in particular, doesn't play defense well inside. It ranks 124th in points per possession at the rim defensively, per KenPom, while the Jayhawks rank first offensively.
Adding on, UConn is only shooting 30.9% from deep, while owning the 89th-ranked 3-point attempt rate in the nation. Per Shot Quality, the Huskies rank 302nd in Open 3 Rate on offense. The Huskies, simply put, are taking bad 3-pointers.
Yes, KU ranks 297th in Open 3 Rate, but it’s 83rd offensively. Since the Jayhawks shoot 38.2% from deep and nearly 60% inside the arc, they’ll have an edge.
One detriment for the Jayhawks this season has been turnovers, but the Huskies rank 114th defensively.
Since KU has the home court edge, it should win a tight one. Take the Jayhawks to -3.5, since they have the better defense.
Pick: Kansas -2 (Play to -3.5)
Kansas -2
This is Connecticut’s first real test this season, and one that will take place in a raucous Allen Fieldhouse. Normally teams can't control the 7-foot-2 Clingan, but I actually think Dickinson holds a clear advantage.
Not only can Dickinson pull Clingan out of the paint — he can hit 3s at a consistent rate — but that’ll in turn allow for K.J. Adams Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. to attack the rim frequently. If Clingan finds himself in foul trouble, this could quickly turn disastrous for UConn.
A lack of depth is Kansas' biggest concern, and against a physical Huskies squad, the potential for foul trouble is always there. But Bill Self’s unit actually ranks inside the top 20 in FTA/FGA. The Jayhawks are disciplined, especially the big three of Dajuan Harris Jr., Dickinson and McCullar.
This is going to be a back-and-forth contest between two elite programs. If UConn can heat up from the perimeter, KU can quickly find itself playing catch up, something it doesn't want to be doing against Dan Hurley’s squad.
Given the home court advantage and the fact that I think Dickinson is a game–changer against Clingan, I’m backing Kansas on Friday. Eastern Illinois was an obvious sandwich spot for the Jayhawks, who have their eyes on taking down the defending national champs.
Now is their time.
Pick: Kansas -2 (Play to -3.5)
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Under 147.5
UConn will eventually lose a non-conference game. The Huskies have won 23 straight, which is seemingly impossible.
UConn has won 23 straight non-conference games by double digits. That ties the record originally set by North Carolina from 2008-2010. The Huskies can break the record tonight in Storrs against New Hampshire.
UConn is favored by 31.5 pts.— Bryan DeNovellis (@bryandeno) November 27, 2023
I’m unsure if the Huskies will lose this game, but they might slow down against a Kansas defense that matches up well in Allen Fieldhouse.
UConn runs most of its action on the interior (although Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer has added a perimeter shooting dimension to the offense). The Huskies utilize cuts, off-screens and handoffs while working in the post and crashing the offensive boards.
So far, the Huskies are sixth nationally in Offensive Efficiency, sixth in offensive rebounding rate and second in 2-point shooting behind Clingan, who has slid seamlessly into Adama Sanogo’s role while shooting over 70% from 2.
They’re getting to the rim at will, averaging 25 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game and shooting over 70% on those shots.
But the Jayhawks boast an elite interior defense. Per Synergy, Kansas ranks in the 95th percentile of D-I teams in off-screen PPP allowed, 92nd percentile in handoff PPP allowed, 97th percentile in cutting PPP allowed and 10th in 2-point shooting allowed.
Kansas is a hard-nosed defensive team that clogs up gaps and lanes. Harris is an elite ball-screen defender at the point of attack. McCullar has the team’s highest DBPR rating on the wing. Dickinson is an adept rim protector, outside of being a simply monstrous interior presence that opposing ball-handlers are oft-scared to attack.
I think the Jayhawks can stifle the Huskies’ stuff.
But while it seems like this is a good matchup for Kansas, we can’t trust the offense as currently constructed.
Nicolas Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson aren’t adequately replacing Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick’s offensive production. There aren’t enough shooters to space the floor and supplement Harris-Dickinson ball-screen actions, meaning opposing defenses clog the interior and hover over Dickinson.
Kansas has no consistent scoring threats besides Harris and Dickinson. The half-court offense stalls quickly – Dick’s shooting bailed the Jayhawks out last year, but he’s now playing in Toronto.
The ‘Hawks have been exposed. They posted an 86.4 Offensive Rating against Marquette (12th percentile), a 97 against Tennessee (30th percentile) and a surprisingly poor 109 against lowly Eastern Illinois (58th percentile), averaging a meager .86 PPP against the three opponents combined.
Kansas can still post up with and cut off of Dickinson on the interior. But UConn ranks in the 87th percentile of D-I teams in post-up PPP allowed behind the giant, 7-foot-2 Clingan, and the Huskies rank in the 76th percentile in cutting PPP allowed.
I know I just threw a bunch of numbers in your face, but let me break it down in layman’s terms.
UConn wants to run interior-based offensive stuff, but Kansas’ defense is rock-solid and very physical on the interior. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks can’t score in general, and UConn can cut off their best avenues to offense.
Throw in the UConn letdown potential, and I expect a lower-scoring grinder from start to finish. Points will be at a premium.
There are two worries. One is that Kansas will dictate the pace, resulting in a high-possession game. The other is that Spencer goes thermonuclear from deep.
But neither scares me enough to keep me away from this under.
Pick: Under 147.5
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UConn +2.5
By John Feltman
I’m ecstatic for this game, as this could very well be a Final Four preview. The Jayhawks will host the Huskies in what’s expected to be a closely-contested contest.
Right off the bat, I think the biggest difference in this game will come down to these teams' ability to protect the basketball. The Huskies are 60th in the country in turnovers, whereas the Jayhawks have failed to take away the ball.
The Jayhawks have been impressive thus far this year, despite getting severely outplayed by Marquette. However, they’ve been the complete opposite of the Huskies in the turnover department, and they currently rank in the bottom 100 in offensive turnovers.
The matchup everybody is clamoring about is between Clingan and Dickinson. Dickinson has the experience advantage, but I think Clingan will be able to contain him on the inside all evening long.
I also believe the Huskies are due for some positive 3-point shooting regression, considering they’re only shooting 31% as a group on the season.
KenPom makes this Kansas -1, which tells me the Huskies would be favored on a neutral site or at home. I trust the Huskies’ ability to protect the basketball much more than the Jayhawks, and I think their defensive edge will carry them enough to win a tough game on the road.
Pick: UConn +2.5 (Play to -1)
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