Boise State vs. Notre Dame Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2025

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Mike Denbrock knows how to adjust his offense to his quarterback but I’m not sure the market has adjusted to what the Irish are this year as opposed to last year when Riley Leonard was piloting the ND attack. Just look at the playcalling measurables Notre Dame was 88th in passing play rate in 2024, up to 85th this year. No difference right? It’s all in the aDOT and yards per attempt difference. Leonard 7.5 aDOT, 7.1 ypa. That’s 90th and 70th among qualifying QBs. CJ Carr’s aDOT 9.4, 10.1 yards per attempts. That’s 34th and 4th nationally. That’s really good when you’re backing an over against a defense that is 134th in explosives allowed. Boise has been shredded by the big play on the ground and through the air. Carr, Love and Price will land haymakers. On the other side of things, Notre Dame’s defense has fallen off a cliff with Chris Ash as the new DC. From the elite ranks, to a advanced stat sheet bledding red. 135th in HAVOC, outside the top 100 in success rate allowed both on the ground and through the air. Boise isn’t what they were with Jeanty, but the running back by committee thing is cooking, and I know one thing about Maddux Madsen, he’s matured as a passer when he has time to work. Whether firing from a clean pocket or given time to improvise, he makes big plays this fall. In a clean pocket or no pressure, 9 big time throws to 4 turnover worthy plays. And he’s coming off the best game of his career last week against App State. Boise as an underdog since 2023, 5-2 to the over. They play loose, they let it fly and they will in South Bend as a big dog.

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Project 65.5: Notre Dame to have zero resistance moving the ball. Largest finishing drives discrepancy of Week 6. Notre Dame defense also bottom 10 in Quality Drives allowed