The final bowl games of the 2025-26 college football season are upon us.
While we still have the College Football Playoff semifinals and National Championship, this marks our last opportunity this season to bet on bowl games throughout the day.
Friday's slate features 4 bowl games, and our college football writers broke down all of them and came through with a pick for each.
First, we'll kick it off with the Armed Forces Bowl between the Texas State Bobcats and the Rice Owls at 1 p.m. ET.
After that, we'll move on to the final daytime bowl game of the season when the Cincinnati Bearcats meet the Navy Midshipmen in the Liberty Bowl at 4:30 p.m. ET.
To close it all out, Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby and Wake Forest head coach Jake Dickert will go to battle for the opportunity to be doused with mayonnaise in the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
At the same time, the SMU Mustangs will take on the Arizona Wildcats in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.
With so much bowl game action to get into, let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Friday, Jan. 2.
College Football Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of bowl games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas State vs Rice Pick
By Road to CFB
This marks the second Rice vs. Texas State bowl matchup in the Lone Star State in three seasons.
Last time (2023), the Bobcats throttled the Owls, 45-21, in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas.
If you got in early with Texas State, you’re feeling pretty good about your ticket(s) in hand. The Bobcats opened as 6.5-point favorites, and that quickly ballooned to 10.5 before the opt-out of Rice quarterback Chase Jenkins pushed this above two touchdowns — a number that’s likely not coming back down.
Backup quarterback Drew Devillier joins Jenkins, meaning freshman Patrick Crayton Jr. likely gets the start here.
Teams that took advantage of Texas State’s defense were able to throw the ball, far from Rice’s focus or forte. Four of Crayton’s seven passing attempts on the season targeted receivers behind the line of scrimmage, and another fifth came under 10 yards.
This game is simply a talent mismatch.
Texas State averages over 480 yards per game (fourth-most), and losses came by opponents scoring 40-plus. Texas State still gained over 500 yards in each of its one-score losses this year.
Rice doesn’t have enough quality defenders to keep pace with Bobcat weapons Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. Its top-graded cornerback, per PFF, is far below replacement level with a 58.1 grade on the season (behind seven graded safeties).
Rice couldn't compete against better offenses like UTSA, USF and North Texas. It allowed 50-plus to all three of those teams. So, long as a team can throw the ball, it can score on Rice.
Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne isn’t afraid to flex his muscles when he's able. Against Rice two bowls ago, Kinne kept his starters in up 17 late in the fourth quarter.
I don’t expect a competitive game here, but the juice has been squeezed out of the point spread.
Pick: Texas State Team Total Over 36.5
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Cincinnati vs Navy Pick
By Road to CFB
Navy opened as a +5.5 underdog — a severely mispriced line, as the market indicated.
While it appears the Midshipmen will go into this game favored by around a touchdown, this line approached -10 in favor of the Midshipmen. The over/under fell from 56.5 points to 54.5.
Rain could be an issue here. There's between a 30-50% chance of precipitation during the game, at times moderate.
Service academies rarely see opt-outs and bear down hard on opponents in bowl games. The Midshipmen should be at full strength for this game, including star quarterback Blake Horvath and nose guard Landon Robinson, Navy's first first-team All-America selection since 1985.
There shouldn't be much of a concern for Navy stepping up in class from the American to the Big 12 here. Navy's last six bowl opponents hailed from power conferences, most recently Oklahoma (SEC) and Kansas State (Big 12).
The Midshipmen haven't lost a bowl game since 2016 (3-0) and have notched a win in six of their last seven bowl appearances.
Cincinnati's defense was already a concern. Now, it's without its top players — including quarterback Brendan Sorsby and defensive tackle Dontay Corleone — and entire secondary.
Defense was a real issue for the Bearcats this season. Cincy finished 111th in Points Per Drive allowed and 129th in available yards allowed (58.4%). Expectations are hurt further by the majority of its secondary missing this game.
Navy's defense is also a concern, even against senior QB Brady Lichtenberg and freshman QB Samaj Jones. The rest of the offense is intact, except for third-leading rusher Evan Pryor (522 yards).
The Bearcats are a bottom-50 defense in explosive runs and a bottom-10 unit in Stuff Rate.
Navy will be able to run on this defense and connect with explosive passes to Eli Heidenreich. Heidenreich, Horvath and Alex Tecza should play the full game, their final in a Navy uniform.
We'll know right off the bat whether Cincinnati wants to be in Memphis or not. I expect Navy to lean on this flawed and thinned defense and find plenty of points, even in a bowl season devoid of scoring.
Pick: Navy -7 or Better
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Mississippi State vs Wake Forest Pick
By Road to CFB
Mississippi State has been the pick in the lead-up to this bowl game. It opened a -2.5 favorite and crossed the critical -3 threshold but halted at -3.5.
Wake Forest head coach Jake Dickert is in pursuit of his first bowl win as a head coach (0-2 previously at Washington State). He's also looking to deliver just the fourth nine-win season in Wake Forest's 118-year football history (and third coach to do so).
With a group graduating so many core players — quarterback Robby Ashford is out of eligibility, while running back Demond Claiborne, safety Nick Andersen and tackle Fa’alili Fa’amoe are all likely NFL-bound — I'd expect a strong effort from this team.
Wake counters well defensively what Mississippi State wants to do offensively.
Whether Blake Shapen or Kamario Taylor goes first at quarterback, State is going to lean into its run game. Wake can control the line of scrimmage against what's been a subpar offensive front, and the second level is one of the best in the ACC.
Wake Forest defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is going to force the ball to the air, where Mississippi State ranks 93rd in Passing Success Rate. Taylor completes less than 55% of his passes, while Shapen is around 64%.
Senior Brenen Thompson (948 yards) is the biggest threat in the receiving game, while Anthony Evans III (741 yards) presents a nice second option. However, there's not much behind those two.
Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby won't reveal who the defensive play-caller will be for this bowl game after recently hiring Zach Arnett back to the staff. My guess is that it'll be an assistant who has been on the staff; otherwise, he would likely say Arnett will be in the booth.
Wake Forest has more to play for here. There's a mismatch between Wake's defensive front and State's offensive front, which has been a death sentence for those in the deficit.
If there's overwhelming support on State, we'd have seen the -3 line disappear. But -3 is available, hinting at respectable action on Wake Forest.
This is a team that has overachieved this year, and I'm siding with that upstart roster over the sub-.500 fifth-choice team for this bowl spot.
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 or Better
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SMU vs Arizona Pick
By John Feltman
There’s a lot of roster uncertainty heading in, but I have a feeling Arizona will be at almost full strength.
Because of that, I love the 'Cats here.
Let’s start with the roster, since that can matter more than any stat during bowl season.
Arizona head coach Brent Brennan has said there may be opt-outs, but he isn’t announcing them. That’s a smart move because SMU can’t prepare for which starters might be out.
SMU, meanwhile, could have the following players opt outs:
- WR Romello Brinson
- TEs RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner
- OL Logan Parr
- DL Jeff M’ba
- S Isaiah Nwokobia.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings will play, but he is going to be in trouble without all of his key pieces offensively.
On offense, Arizona may not have eye-popping stats, but the Wildcats match up well with SMU’s defense.
Arizona ranks 48th nationally in EPA Per Rush and 37th in available yards percentage, while SMU’s strength is stopping the run at fourth in EPA Per Rush allowed.
SMU’s secondary is more vulnerable, ranking outside the top 40 in available yards allowed and late-downs defense.
The Mustangs' average starting field position is also poor, while Arizona usually starts near its own 30.
The Wildcats can keep drives going, control field position, and avoid the mistakes that usually help SMU’s defense. I really think we'll see a bulk of the usual group start, as Brennan likely wants SMU to believe they won't be at full strength.
SMU’s defense is built to disrupt early downs. However, Arizona is average in early downs EPA (76th ranked nationally), so the Wildcats don’t often fall behind schedule. The Mustangs rank only 27th in that area.
This means Arizona can keep drives going, forcing SMU to defend long series, which isn’t ideal for its defense.
Add it all up, and you’ve got the deeper, steadier, more complete team with fewer moving pieces in the 'Cats. It’s not surprising that the market isn’t fully baking that in, considering the uncertainty of who's playing.
I had this circled entering bowl season, as I was looking to fade SMU in its bowl game.
Even if Arizona isn't at full strength, I still see its defense running circles around Jennings all day.
Pick: Arizona ML -125 or Better
