- The UCF Knights head to the Midwest on Saturday to take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Big 12 action.
- The Wildcats enter as the favorites despite a rough start to the season.
- Check out our system pick and prediction for UCF vs. Kansas State below.
The UCF Knights take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
Kansas State is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. UCF, meanwhile, enters as an underdog of +5.5 and sits at +175 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under comes in at 49 points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
UCF vs. Kansas State Prediction, Picks
- UCF vs. Kansas State Pick: UCF +6
My Kansas State vs. UCF best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread on the road. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCF vs. Kansas State Odds, Line, Spread
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -210 |
UCF vs. Kansas State Week 5 Preview
Saturday's UCF vs. Kansas State game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Bounce Back Fade," this is a college football system that takes advantage of public overreaction to teams coming off a poor performance.
In conference play, when an opponent has just lost by more than three points — as Kansas State did when it lost, 23-17, to Arizona last week — and enters with only a one-game home or away streak, bettors often expect a strong rebound effort.
Oddsmakers know this tendency and may shade the line toward that team, creating hidden value on the other side.
By focusing on spreads between three and 16 points, this system captures games that are competitive enough for the line to matter but not so close that small swings decide the outcome.
In these situations, fading the supposed bounce-back team has historically delivered consistent returns, as motivation alone does not erase underlying weaknesses that caused the initial loss.
This system boasts an all-time record of 590-429-16, good for a 57.9% win rate and an ROI of 12.2%.
UCF vs. Kansas State College Football Pick
Along with the system, it's worth noting that Kansas State has not performed like the conference favorite it was made out to be in the preseason.
The Wildcats sit at 1-3, and their one win came against FCS North Dakota in a game in which it was favored by 27.5 points.
UCF, meanwhile, comes into the game at 3-0, most recently decimating Bill Belichick's North Carolina squad by a score of 34-9.
With this line sitting at nearly a touchdown, we'll ride with the road 'dog against what has been a disappointing Kansas State team.
Pick: UCF +6
