Saints vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 3, 2024

@TheBMatt

10% edge per FTN Model!

🔬Chris got peppered with targets last week and now gets Carr back without Shaheed, bub means is hurt, Kendre Miller , & Johnson is out. This offense will have to dominate through Olave and Kamara 🔬Saints projected for the 8th most points this week. Carr lit the panthers up in week 1 and Olave was the only one who didn’t get a piece of the pie. This is a smash spot for Olave who had 86 yards last year in Carolina. 🔬Carolina has allowed - Moore 5/105/2, Sutton 8/100, McLaurin 6/98, London 6/74/1

Hill returned in Week 8 after missing about a month of action. He immediately stepped into a valuable role, playing a season-high 29 snaps and running a season-high 19 routes. Hill has played many positions for New Orleans, but he was basically used like a wide receiver against the Chargers. He ran 63.2% of his routes from the slot and 31.6% from out wide. Hill earned a season-high 4 targets and turned them into 2 catches for 21 yards. Hill also remains involved on the ground. He has 3+ carries in every game he's played. New Orleans is expected to be without both Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, leaving Hill as the de facto No. 2 running back behind Alvin Kamara. Hill has 2 carries inside the 5-yard line this season, and he's converted both into TDs. Carolina is bad at everything on defense. It's almost not worth digging into the matchup. The Panthers have allowed the 8th-most passing yards and the most rushing yards. Running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have all performed well against them. No matter where Hill lines up on Sunday, he should be in a good spot to produce.

Coker has emerged. Over in 2/4, and was on the field for 35 of Young’s 41 dropbacks last week. Still no Thielen, and now Leggette has popped up on the injury report. The Saints secondary is decimated by injuries - Lattimore will be out. And this is a Saints defense as is that’s allowed the 5th most rec yards to WRs.

No Kendre Miller and Jamal Williams is doubtful. Expecting a heavy dose of Taysom Hill this weekend

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Over in 3/4, including 35 yards vs CAR in week 1. Carr is trending towards a return, which actually makes me like this even more. His presence should help the offense maintain a neutral to positive gamescript, and should lead to more Taysom snaps (especially with Carr coming back from an oblique). The Panthers run defense is atrocious, especially up the middle. I have hill at 5 attempts, but he should get there with just 4. Also of note - all the saints RBs are banged up right now.

Derrick Carr back model makes this -11.75 home division dogs 6-10-1 ATS this szn