Nick Giffen

Alvin Kamara over 8.5 1st Qtr Rushing Yds (-112 at FD) Saints head coach Kellen Moore has chosen to receive the opening kickoff 3 of 5 times his team won the coin toss, while his counterpart on the Panthers Dave Canales has chosen to defer 5 of 6 times. Based off those rates, the Saints would be over 70% favorites to start with the ball here, as they've done in 6 of their 9 games this year. Kamara himself has been most productive in the first quarter, not only from having more possessions, but also because the Saints tend to fall behind and abandon the run. Just over 40% of Kamara's rushing yards have come in the 1st quarter, including 43% in the 6 games where the Saints start with the ball. With his full game line at 36.5, this 8.5 number represents just 23.3% of the full game line. Carolina allows the eighth most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, marking the third easiest matchup by that metric for Kamara on the season. Kamara has cleared this line in 5 of 6 games where the Saints started with the ball, and 8 of 9 overall. Ladders of 1st Q rush yds or pivots to 1st qtr rush+rec yds overs are fine too

Drake Maye over 28.5 Rush Yds (-110 at BetMGM or Bet365) Drake Mayve over 5.5 Rush Att (-105 at BetMGM) Drake Maye's dropbacks have strongly correlated with the Patriots average second half scoring margin. In two losses where the Pats trailed by an average of nearly 6 points per play in the 2nd half, Maye had an average of 50 dropbacks. In the five games they led by anywhere from a half point to 5.5 points per play, he always had between 30 and 40 dropbacks. And in the one 2H blowout win Maye had just 21 dropbacks. That's all important because the Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs to Tampa Bay on the road, and while I make this game closer to a pick'em, even then that means Maye would project for around 39.25 dropbacks. Maye's scramble rate this year has been 11.6% of dropbacks despite facing a slightly unfavorable opposing defensive schedule for scramble rates. However, Tampa Bay is clearly the team that allows the highest scramble rate of the teams he will have faced, as the Bucs rank No. 2 in raw scramble rated allowed and No. 1 in QB-adjusted scramble rate over expectation allowed. The Bucs are allowing QBs to run for a 3.3% higher absolute scramble rate than their base rates, or a 38.1% relatively higher scramble rate. That would put Maye's scramble rate expectation at around 15-16%. Simple math suggests a 15% scramble rate on 39.25 dropbacks is a shade under 5.9 scrambles expected, and that's using a neutral second half game script instead of one where the Patriots are more likely to be slightly trailing than not based off the spread. Maye's scrambles have gone for just over 7 yards, while the Bucs allow just 6.7 yards per QB scramble, both below the NFL average of 7.7 yards. So even at around 6.1 yards per scramble, I'm getting north of 35 yards expected on scrambles alone as a somewhat conservative estimate. With reduced kneel down potential and a designed run/QB sneak or two added in, I'm projecting Maye closer to 40 yards rushing, with a median closer to 32.5 yards. Splitting 1u with half a unit each on att and yds

Drake Maye over 28.5 Rush Yds (-110 at BetMGM or Bet365) Drake Mayve over 5.5 Rush Att (-105 at BetMGM) Drake Maye's dropbacks have strongly correlated with the Patriots average second half scoring margin. In two losses where the Pats trailed by an average of nearly 6 points per play in the 2nd half, Maye had an average of 50 dropbacks. In the five games they led by anywhere from a half point to 5.5 points per play, he always had between 30 and 40 dropbacks. And in the one 2H blowout win Maye had just 21 dropbacks. That's all important because the Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs to Tampa Bay on the road, and while I make this game closer to a pick'em, even then that means Maye would project for around 39.25 dropbacks. Maye's scramble rate this year has been 11.6% of dropbacks despite facing a slightly unfavorable opposing defensive schedule for scramble rates. However, Tampa Bay is clearly the team that allows the highest scramble rate of the teams he will have faced, as the Bucs rank No. 2 in raw scramble rated allowed and No. 1 in QB-adjusted scramble rate over expectation allowed. The Bucs are allowing QBs to run for a 3.3% higher absolute scramble rate than their base rates, or a 38.1% relatively higher scramble rate. That would put Maye's scramble rate expectation at around 15-16%. Simple math suggests a 15% scramble rate on 39.25 dropbacks is a shade under 5.9 scrambles expected, and that's using a neutral second half game script instead of one where the Patriots are more likely to be slightly trailing than not based off the spread. Maye's scrambles have gone for just over 7 yards, while the Bucs allow just 6.7 yards per QB scramble, both below the NFL average of 7.7 yards. So even at around 6.1 yards per scramble, I'm getting north of 35 yards expected on scrambles alone as a somewhat conservative estimate. With reduced kneel down potential and a designed run/QB sneak or two added in, I'm projecting Maye closer to 40 yards rushing, with a median closer to 32.5 yards. Splitting 1u with half a unit each on att and yds

Jameson Williams over 44.5 rec yds (-110 B365) Jameson Williams longest reception over 21.5 yds -122 at FD or over 22.5 -110 at DK In my explosive play projections, the Lions project as the No. 1 team of the weekend in explosive pass rate. That immediately makes me think of Williams who is one of the most explosive players, but has had a run of underperformance which may be inflating his odds here. Williams has a great coverage matchup against the Commanders, where he projects to be around 10% more efficient against the coverages the Commanders tend to use. Additionally, the Commanders are without top CB Marshon Lattimore who tore his ACL last week against Seattle. If there was ever a week for Jamo to get back in form, it’s this week against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in explosive pass rate allowed. Note: For longest reception, over 22.5 yds -110 at DK is technically better than over 21.5 -122 at FD since the price matters more than the yard, but it's fine to choose either one. I'm also going to be laddering Williams, so be sure to see the Predictive Analytics best bets piece that comes out Saturday evening for how I'm approaching that.

Jameson Williams over 44.5 rec yds (-110 B365) Jameson Williams longest reception over 21.5 yds -122 at FD or over 22.5 -110 at DK In my explosive play projections, the Lions project as the No. 1 team of the weekend in explosive pass rate. That immediately makes me think of Williams who is one of the most explosive players, but has had a run of underperformance which may be inflating his odds here. Williams has a great coverage matchup against the Commanders, where he projects to be around 10% more efficient against the coverages the Commanders tend to use. Additionally, the Commanders are without top CB Marshon Lattimore who tore his ACL last week against Seattle. If there was ever a week for Jamo to get back in form, it’s this week against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in explosive pass rate allowed. Note: For longest reception, over 22.5 yds -110 at DK is technically better than over 21.5 -122 at FD since the price matters more than the yard, but it's fine to choose either one. I'm also going to be laddering Williams, so be sure to see the Predictive Analytics best bets piece that comes out Saturday evening for how I'm approaching that.

Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush under 13.5 yards (-115 Bet365, 120 DK/MGM/ESPN) Since McCaffrey returned from injury in 2024, he has just 6 carries out of 194 carries from at least 14 yards from the end zone that have cleared 13.5 yards for a paltry 3.1% compared to the NFL average of 5.5% (removing QB scrambles). This year, CMC has cleared this in just 3 of 9 games, with those coming against the Arizona Cardinals who rank ninth worst in explosive run rate allowed, the Atlanta Falcons in which is took him 24 carries to get a longest run of 15 yards, and the New York Giants who rank third worst in explosive run rate allowed where he cleared his 15.5 longest rush line by the hook on 28 carries (and I gave out over last week in that game). But now he faces a Rams defense that is second-best in preventing explosive runs. Earlier this year when these two teams played, McCaffrey's longest run was just 8 yards on 22 carries. This year, in three games against top-five defenses in preventing explosive runs, McCaffrey has a longest run of just 13 yards on 61 carries. Additionally, the 49ers run zone concept runs with CMC 65% of the time, which is what the Rams defense has been better at stopping (3.86 ypc, 41.8% success rate allowed compared to 4.38 and 51.8% vs. man/gap concept runs). In my most generous projections where I overprojected his carries, fraction of carries from at least 14 yards out, and use generous distributions for his carry length and LA's allowed carry length, I'm still getting he stays under 13.5 almost 63% of the time.

#LuckRankings

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.

Devonta Smith over 4.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM, -106 at FD) Philadelphia should struggle to produce big plays here, especially in the passing game against a Packers defense that ranks 1st in preventing explosive pass plays, ninth in preventing explosive run plays, and first overall in preventing all explosive plays. That means Hurts is going to have to lead the team down the field through the shorter passing game against a Green Bay defense that leans zone heavy (10th highest rate of zone coverage in 2025). That should lead to more overall plays if they are to sustain drives rather than through frequent explosive TDs (most TDs of 25+ yards in the NFL), as the Packers have allowed just one TD longer than 25 yards. So why Smith as the pass catcher? First, lets look at coverage schemes. A.J. Brown's targets per route run drops from 41% vs. man coverage to just 17% against zone, while only RB Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith increase of the Eagles top five receiving threats. The specific types of coverages also favor Smith, as he's the only frequent Eagle pass catcher who has positive efficiency relative to his season average against the types of coverages Green Bay tends to use at +8.4% per Fantasy Points data. The Packers relatively high rate of Cover 6 (14%, 10th most in the NFL), which is designed to use a zone double against the top WR, means Brown is likely to be marked out of a few extra routes, which should funnel targets to Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Barkley as the main alternative options. Philly receivers have only faced Cover 6 on about 4% of routes run this year, so that'll mark a notable increase should the Packers stick to their deployment of it at a top-10 rate. Now to matchup specifics. By lining up in the slot near or above a 50%+ rate, he'll most frequently face Packers nickel back Javon Bullard , the Packers' CB that has allowed the most receptions per route run between he (11.7%), Keisean Nixon (7.0%) and Carrington Valentine (8.2%). Additionally, Green Bay ranks No. 7 in defensive pass efficiency against deep passes, but just 23rd vs. shorter passes and top nine against passes to the left and right but just 25th against passes over the middle, where Smith operates somewhat frequently out of the slot. Per my Week 10 Luck Rankings piece, the Eagles are likely to regress toward their season-long scoring expectation -- which they are over by 35 points -- by not having explosive TDs, which would put them in serious danger of not covering the 2.5-point spread. So as the unlucky side likely to regress and fail to cover, that would put them in a pass-heavy game script, leading to a ton of shorter passing volume, which the matchup shows should funnel primarily through Smith, with Barkley and Goedert factoring in as well. I like a Smith ladder here as well, almost as high as you'd like to go.