Bills vs. Browns Odds & Betting Predictions - December 21, 2025

Boyd / FanDuel

High Wind Low Total Overall: 473-341-7,58% (ROI:12%) Season:14-8-0,64% (ROI:

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Browns OC Tommy Rees said this to the media this week, “We have to find the ability to run the ball…and find ways to get Q going…definitely a huge point of emphasis for us…We gotta do a good job of getting him opportunities to find seams…he’s created a lot of explosives for us, he’s carried games for us so finding ways to continue to have him impact the game.” The Bills rank 2nd worst in Rush DVOA & allow the 5th Highest Explosive Rush% (7.0%). They’ve allowed at least 1 RB over their longest rush line in 12/14 games (16 total RBs). CLE may be getting back a few starters on the OL this week too (they’re practicing). Judkins has a 14+ Long Rush in 6/L6 home games & is likely to see 15+ carries here. BUF can dominate time of possession in games so I’m opting to go with the longest rush angle over carries.

We had a big win last week with Bills second half, so let's run it back. The full-game line here feels high at Bills -10.5. This looks windy and freezing with a total barely above 40, so it may be hard for Buffalo to separate on the road. I make the full-game line closer to a touchdown. The Browns defense has consistently played better at home, and Buffalo has been a far less dangerous team on the road, where its offense rates league average by DVOA instead of No. 2 at home. I've got a stray eye on the Bills, effectively a league-average team by DVOA over the last six weeks with a badly faltering defense. Cleveland's run defense can keep the Bills in sight, at least for awhile, and Quinshon Judkins should find some running room against this bad Bills run defense. So why second half? Buffalo is now a league-worst 3-11 ATS in the first half, while the Browns actually have a winning record (8-6 ATS). Buffalo has been far better in the second half at 10-4 ATS, while the Browns fall apart to 4-10 ATS. And that's been consistent with Josh Allen for his career too, a second-half god at a ridiculous 81-40-3 ATS (67%). The Bills defense is much better playing with a lead, when the opponent is forced to abandon the run, and Buffalo will find some explosives in this game and win out — it just may take some time. Playing Bills -4 second half gets us past 10 and seven as key numbers and it sets us up either way. If the Bills roll Cleveland, they'll just run the ball all second half and come after Shedeur Sanders. If Cleveland hangs til halftime, Allen can turn on the gas late. Either way, we'll like our second-half bet.

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Proj closer to 16 w/ around a 60% chance to stay under 19.5

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Not really in love with this bet but I don’t think this 10 is sticking around throughout the week. Browns off a blowout, at home, where they always play tough, against a Bills team coming off the win of the year. Spot play to the max.