Dolphins vs. Browns Odds & Betting Predictions - October 19, 2025

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With TE David Njoku out, the Browns lose the one player who consistently handled the “easy” targets, the short, chain-moving, conversion throws. That increased role doesn’t shift to Jeudy and Bond (who have higher aDOTs), it consolidates to the only player already running those routes at volume: Harold Fannin Jr.. Across Gabriel’s two starts, Fannin Jr. led the team in short-area usage (0–9 aDOT), catching 11 of those looks while playing above a 79% snap rate in three straight games. And the terrible weather actually pushes this prop in the right direction. In heavy wind and rain, offenses don’t suddenly pass less, they pass shorter. Perimeter and intermediate throws lose efficiency, but tight end-area throws hold up because they are lower-risk, lower-air-time decisions. Miami’s defense has been punished specifically underneath (top-2 in yards allowed on short throws, bottom-tier EPA), which is exactly where Fannin works. This is the rare case where the environmental downgrade hardens a reception floor instead of introducing volatility. #PlayerProps

Gabriel has cleared this in both starts, including 52 attempts last week against Pittsburgh, but this is a completely different setup. We’re looking at 20+ mph sustained winds with 30+ mph gust potential, which should force Cleveland into a run-heavy, conservative approach..and they can get away with it against a Miami defense ranked dead last in DVOA. Quinshon Judkins’ rushing prop has already been bet into oblivion, so think of this as betting the Judkins over at a discount (we are rooting for him to go off with this prop, that’ll be key in limiting Gabriel’s pass attempts). The Browns are 2.5-point favorites, projecting them to play with a lead at a +33% higher rate than usual. Less trailing, less throwing. And then there’s Gabriel’s scramble rate.. 1 scramble on 98 dropbacks. I never expected him to be Jaxson Dart-level mobile, but he has way too much athleticism to be in the same scramble bucket as Mall Santas like Matthew Stafford and Joe Flacco. That number has to correct upward, which steals pass attempts. There are even situational paths where his volume gets capped. If Cleveland gets the ball late in the first half backed up deep, I doubt they run a real 2-minute drill in hurricane winds with a rookie QB.. they’ll probably just run clock and get out of there. I’m projecting him closer to 29.1 attempts with around a 60% chance to stay under 30.5.

This looks like the most weather-impacted game on the slate in what could be a pretty ugly Sunday around the league. Weather forecasts expect sustained winds of 20-to-25 MPH and gusts at 50 or above with some rain on top of it, and the total has absolutely plummeted, from an already-low 41.5 on Sunday to 35.5 and falling as of publish. That will almost certainly mean a heavy reliance on the run game in this one, and that should be advantage Cleveland. The Browns have the league's No. 1 ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Miami ranks dead last in Defensive DVOA and fourth worst against the run, and the Dolphins rank 31st in Success Rate defensively. This defense just got cooked by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle the last two weeks, to the tune of 18/124 for Vidal and 23/206 for Dowdle — two backup RBs! Add in Breece Hall and James Cook the previous two games, and opposing runners are averaging 18.5 carries for 130 yards a game the last four weeks. The Dolphins have already allowed 806 rushing yards to opposing RBs, most in the league. Only seven other teams have even allowed 600! Cleveland ranks top 10 in EPA per rush and has really found something in rookie Quinshon Judkins. Judkins dropped to only 40% snaps last week in a trailing script against Pittsburgh but played over half the snaps in each of the three previous games, averaging 20.7 carries for 95 YPG. He had at least 82 yards in all three games. Grab Judkins to go over 78.5 rushing yards (Fanatics) and let's take a shot on a couple huge outcomes, 120+ yards at +350 and 150+ yards at +900, in case he really explodes in a sloppy run-run-run game. You can also play over 17.5 longest rush for Judkins at DraftKings if you like. Miami has allowed the last five opposing RB1s a run of over 20 yards, and Judkins already has runs of 31, 32, and 38 yards in his young career.

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THE BLITZ is forecasting 1.14 TD passes for Dillon Gabriel compared to 1.31 TD passes implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 46% of the time, resulting in a 37% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $36.50. (This play is good down to at least +153.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

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Under in 4/6, median 58.5. CLE allowing 66.8 rush yds, 3.23 YPC to RBs, 1st in EPA/rush.

Rolling in the mud

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Tua Tagovailoa under 0.5 INTs (+105 at MGM/365) Might sound counterintuitive, but with 20+ mph winds forecast and even higher gusts, this is a great spot to fade interceptions, and Tua's prop offers the most value of the two QBs in this game INT rate drops just over 20% per pass attempt in high wind games, in part from attempts being shorter on average, and also harder to catch on deeper ones QB pass attempts also drop by almost 3 pass attempts per game in high wind games Tua's career INT per pass attempt is 2.21% since 2022. at 30.5 pass attempts (his current line, which I'd even lean under) with a 20% drop down to 1.77%, I'd get close to a 60% chance to stay under this, before adjusting for opponent As good as the browns defense is, they have only defended 19 passes on 169 attempts, putting them 11th worst in that department, and they've only converted 2 of those 19 into INTs which, on a per-game basis is 6th worst We're getting plus money on a QB that's solidly favored to not throw an interception. I'd be this to -125.

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Have the Dolphins favored in this game. What could go wrong. Just can't get any enthusiasm around the Browns with Dillon Gabriel at QB and the travel schedule they've had. Dolphins stink -- just think +130 on the moneyline is an overreaction to said stink.

The Phins are broken and this o-line doesn’t stand a chance against Cleveland’s defensive front.

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