Braves vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2024

Braves at Astros

6:10 pm • BSSE

Atlanta Braves

32-15

5 - 4

Houston Astros

19-29

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.France			7.46	0-3
M.Fried			3.25	11-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 32-15	-1.5+114	o9.5-112	-134
Astros 19-29	+1.5-135	u9.5-107	+114

Wednesday 6:10 p.m.

April 17, 2024

Daikin ParkHouston

A.Bregman o0.5 RBI+140

0.49u

Bet365 2:08.

ATL -128

0.78u

M.Fried u4.5 Ks-110

0.5u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

M.Fried u4.5 Ks-110

0.91u

@the_oddsmaker

M.Fried u4.5 Ks-110

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases-110

0.5u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-120

0.5u

HOU +120

1.5u

Houston at plus chicky would feed Africa

HOU +128

0.78u

HOU +132

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to +125

J.France o4.5 Ks-122

0.61u

Over 9-118

0.59u

This has nothing to do with Max Fried's struggles. He's facing a tough offense (129 wRC+ v LHP), that doesn't strike out (15.5 K% v LHP) with a marginal (at best) defense behind him. On the other side of the board, the Braves (142 wRC+ v RHP) are facing a pitcher with all non-FIP estimators above five and a bullpen with estimators around four and a half.

Featured Insight
Braves hitters have an OPS of .852 this season -- best in MLB. Astros RPs have allowed an OPS of .762 (306 PAs) this season -- sixth worst in MLB.

TRY FOR FREE

Featured Insight
The Astros scored 2.3 runs per game while trailing last season -- tied for 10th highest in MLB (105 games). The Braves allowed 2.4 runs per game while leading last season -- tied for third highest in MLB (139 games).

TRY FOR FREE

Braves vs. Astros: Back Acuña & Atlanta's Bats
John Feltman•
Apr 17, 2024 UTC
NRFI Model Predictions for Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Apr 17, 2024 UTC
Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Wednesday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 17, 2024 UTC

See more MLB Coverage

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .425.

46% of fastball strikeouts for Yordan Alvarez are located out of the zone since the 2022 season -- seventh highest in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. 48% of Max Fried fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since the 2022 season -- ninth highest among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Jeremy Pena had a groundball rate of 55% last season -- fifth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% against Max Fried last season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 79.3 MPH (20 batted balls) this season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 88.9 -- 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .234 (406 PA's) versus the top of the order since the 2022 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .323 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (31/226) against J.P. France on elevated fastballs since last season -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 26% -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 8-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 16 of Astros' 26 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	19-29	11-15	8-14	4-11	15-17
Braves	32-15	15-9	17-6	24-11	8-4

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	27-18-3	16-9-1	11-9-2	9-6	17-12-3
Braves	19-25-3	6-16-2	13-9-1	16-16-3	3-9

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	19-29	12-14	7-15	5-10	14-18
Braves	32-15	16-8	16-7	25-10	7-5

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 17th	ATL	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 9.5	ATL -108
Apr 16th	ATL	L 1-6	+1.5 L	U 10.5	ATL -101
Apr 14th	TEX	W 8-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	HOU -117
Apr 13th	TEX	W 9-2	-1.5 W	O 9	HOU -136
Apr 13th	TEX	L 8-12	-1.5 L	O 9	TEX -125

Joey Wentz
RP
Wentz is out with knee
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
SP
Schwellenbach is out with elbow
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out with elbow
Out
Hurston Waldrep
SP
Waldrep is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P	96	5	2	3
RJ.Chavez, P	22	1	2	1
RP.Johnson, P	22	1	2	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	17	1.1	1	0
LA.Minter, P	5	0.2	0	0
RR.Iglesias, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	2-5	1	1	1
2M.Harris, CF	1-5	2	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	0-3	0	0	1
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-5	1	1	1
6O.Arcia, SS	2-4	0	0	2
7T.d'Arnaud, C	0-4	0	0	0
8J.Kelenic, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Duvall, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9D. Fletcher, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.France, P	90	5	4	2
RR.Montero, P	16	1	0	0
RB.Abreu, P	15	1	2	0
RR.Pressly, P	27	1	2	1
LJ.Hader, P	15	1	3	0
RS.Martinez, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
2Y.Alvarez, LF	2-5	2	1	1
3A.Bregman, 3B	1-2	0	0	1
3J.Meyers, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4K.Tucker, RF	1-4	0	0	1
5Y.Diaz, DH	2-5	0	0	0
6J.Pena, SS	0-5	0	0	0
7M.Dubon, CF	1-4	1	1	1
8J.Abreu, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
8J.Singleton, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Singleton, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
9V.Caratini, C	0-4	0	0	0