Braves vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - June 22, 2024

Braves at Yankees

11:15 pm • FOX

Atlanta Braves

27-37

3 - 8

New York Yankees

39-25

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Stroman			4.31	10-9
C.Morton			4.19	8-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 27-37	+1.5-175	o9-110	+114
Yankees 39-25	-1.5+145	u9-110	-134

Saturday 11:15 p.m.

June 22, 2024

Yankee StadiumBronx

ATL +120

O.Albies o0.5 HR+520

0.5u

A.Judge o0.5 HR+215

1.61u

ATL +118

Under 9-112

C.Morton u16.5 Outs+102

Morton hits the over here more often than not, but this is more of a matchup play. The Yankees chase at a bottom 5 rate, and Morton hits the zone in the bottom 33rd percentile of qualifiers. Morton at 3.95 pitches per PA, and the Yanks are at 3.98. 5 lefties in the yanks lineup (Morton’s worse split) and of course tough righties (Judge, Stanton Volpe). Morton at 1.26 WHIP (roughly in line with last two seasons) - I see the Yankees getting 7-8 baserunners on in the first 5 innings, which should have Morton close to 90 pitches. Braves pen is in fantastic shape - there should be no reason to push Morton the third time through against Soto and Judge.

ATL +110

NYY -130

0.77u

Featured Insight
Braves have won 62% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since the 2022 season -- second best in MLB. Yankees have won just 42% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since the 2022 season -- tied for fourth worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Yankees have won 58% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since the 2022 season -- tied for fourth best in MLB. Braves have won just 38% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since the 2022 season -- second worst in MLB.

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The Yankees are 3-21 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .058.

The Braves are 8-24 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .150.

The Yankees are 6-19 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .150.

The Braves are 17-73 (.189) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

56% of Gleyber Torres fastball strikeouts are located away since last season -- tied for 12th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 55% of Charlie Morton fastball strikeouts are located away since last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP-- 88th Percentile.

Marcell Ozuna has an OPS of .929 since last season -- 10th best in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Tim Hill has allowed an OPS of .897 (327 PAs) since last season -- second worst among qualified RPs-- first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (194/331) against Marcus Stroman since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 42% -- 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 52% of the time (502/972) with runners in scoring position since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total CB; League Avg: 17% -- 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 67 of 662 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% -- fourth Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has allowed 8 stolen bases this month (3 games) -- most in MLB -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 13-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 14 of Yankees' 33 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	31-33	18-15	13-18	28-29	3-4
Braves	27-37	14-17	13-20	18-30	9-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	28-34-2	14-19	14-15-2	25-31-1	3-3-1
Braves	24-35-5	9-19-3	15-16-2	19-26-3	5-9-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	39-25	21-12	18-13	37-20	2-5
Braves	27-37	17-14	10-23	23-25	4-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 21st	ATL	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 7.5	ATL -109
Jun 20th	BAL	L 5-17	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -170
Jun 19th	BAL	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 7.5	BAL -145
Jun 18th	BAL	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYY -142
Jun 16th	@BOS	L 3-9	-1.5 L	O 9	BOS -142

Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Cox
RP
Cox is out with knee
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Nacho Alvarez
SS
Alvarez is out with wrist
Out

Gerrit Cole
SP
Cole is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Giancarlo Stanton
DH
Stanton is out with elbow
Out
Luis Gil
SP
Gil is out with back
Out
JT Brubaker
SP
Brubaker is out with ribs
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	97	5.2	4	5
LA.Bummer, P	34	0.1	0	2
RJ.Chavez, P	30	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	1-3	0	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-3	2	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5A.Riley, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-3	1	1	2
7R.Laureano, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8F.Wall, LF	0-3	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Stroman, P	93	6.2	6	3
RM.Tonkin, P	6	0.1	1	0
RL.Weaver, P	16	1	2	0
RP.Bickford, P	9	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Volpe, SS	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Soto, RF	1-2	1	0	0
3A.Judge, CF	1-4	1	1	3
4A.Verdugo, LF	0-3	0	0	0
5G.Stanton, DH	1-2	1	0	0
5T.Grisham, PH	1-2	1	1	1
5T.Grisham, DH	1-2	1	1	1
6B.Rice, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
6D.LeMahieu, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
7G.Torres, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
8A.Wells, C	0-3	1	0	0
9O.Cabrera, 3B	2-4	2	0	2