Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 2, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Cardinals have fared quite well as underdogs, compiling a 7-3 record in their last 10 such situations, putting recent performances into perspective. They have been feisty in the toughest matchups. Now, onto the pitching matchup, Andre Pallante has been in really good form lately, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts. What separates Pallante is his ability to limit damage, illustrated by his mere 1.17 WHIP over the stretch and his flyball-to-groundball ratio to help defend against extra-base hits. On the other hand, while Freddy Peralta is coming off a very strong August, his history against the Cardinals isn't as convincing, with a 4.90 ERA in 14 starts against St. Louis. He also hasn't had the most convincing season personally, including a no-decision after five innings against the Cardinals on August 22. Head-to-head matchups also favor St. Louis, which defeated Milwaukee two out of three times in their last series and shut them out when Peralta started. Recent success shows the Cardinals can effectively compete with the Brewers, even when Peralta starts for Milwaukee. The disparity in bullpens considerably tips the scales further in St. Louis' direction. The Cardinals boast a 3.41 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP out of the pen, which means there's always a strong arm available to hold a lead or at least keep the game within one run. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee bullpen has been bad of late. Offensively, the St. Louis Cardinals are in a good rhythm, posting a .284 batting average with a 1.262 OPS across their last 10 games. They have shown an ability to hit right-handed pitchers like Peralta, against whom they have posted a team batting average of .322. In contrast, the Brewers offense has not run on all cylinders, as demonstrated recently when they suffered a defeat to the Cincinnati Reds in which they only managed to attain a .154 batting average. Situationally, the Cardinals are highly motivated, fighting to stay above .500 and perhaps to make a late-season push. Momentum from a strong series against the Yankees included a dominant 14-7 win into this series. This would give them some kind of psychological edge, which, when put together with the recent performances, points to St. Louis having a good enough chance to come out top against Milwaukee.

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice First, we catch the head-to-head trends; the Under has cashed in 9 of the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee. If we look at the starting pitchers, then both Freddy Peralta and Andre Pallante enter in terrific form. Peralta has an outstanding 0.53 ERA in his last three starts, and his 0.94 WHIP is mainly because he can command the game effectively. Pallante isn't that far behind him with his 2.29 ERA and WHIP of 1.17 in that time frame, proving he's on one right now. Milwaukee's bullpen has been incredible, sporting a quality 3.30 ERA, which presents another level of confidence in keeping the game low-scoring. Also, an overall team ERA of 2.77 for the Brewers further indicates that their staff is pretty effective. Offensively, St. Louis doesn't have an overly high-scoring offense, averaging just 4.18 runs per game, putting them 23rd in MLB. Their OPS is .705, ranking 23rd, reflecting decidedly below-average production for the season thus far. The Cardinals' team ERA of 4.16 on the season seems around average, but given the form their starter is in and the limited amount of offense the Brewers have put up, that number should hold up quite well. In fact, consider the fact that Peralta can miss bats at a 27.9% strikeout rate, or that Pallante induces ground balls with the best of them; his ground ball rate is in the 98th percentile. Both are capable of negating opposing offenses well and often. Low average exit velocities they've allowed further indicate hard contact will be limited, thus taking away extra-base hits or home runs.

Pallante has been solid since becoming a full-time starter - but still under in 6/L11. Brutal spot vs the Brewers who are starting 8 guys with above avg pitches per PA (and the one who isn’t is Chourio, who has been red hot). Pallante also struggles to hit the zone, with a zone% in the bottom 25th percentile of all pitchers with 50+ IP. Brewers have the second lowest chase rate as a team. Brewers bats also back on the upswing.

Flat to -116