Cardinals vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2025

Cardinals at Reds

4:40 pm • FDSMW

St. Louis Cardinals

36-28

1 - 9

Cincinnati Reds

32-34

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Abbott			2.87	10-7
M.Liberatore			4.21	8-12

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cardinals 36-28	N/A	N/A	N/A
Reds 32-34	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 4:40 p.m.

May 01, 2025

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

CIN -118 (Live)

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks+105

0.53u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks+105

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks+105

1.05u

Abbott has looked strong early (6.7 K/game, 33% K rate), but he’s faced a soft schedule and draws his toughest test yet against the Cardinals. He’s struggled to consistently throw strikes — especially first-pitch strikes — and STL swings at the first pitch at the 6th-lowest rate in the league, giving them a good shot to get ahead in counts. That’s a bad setup against a disciplined lineup, especially with ump Nate Tomlinson who has been squeezing pitchers hard this year. My sim shows slight value on the under (projected -110), but the real signal comes from the S&K 500 model, where Abbott is a strong sell with a +19.4 Priority Score — good for official Club 17 access. He’s cleared this line in 2 of 3 starts, but I have him getting pulled just before he can face the softer 5-7 and 9 spots a third time. Great time to sell high.

S.Steer o0.5 HR+520

1.3u

S.Steer o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

0.65u

Over 4.5 (F5)-125

0.5u

L.Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases+145

0.34u

M.Liberatore u4.5 Ks-105

0.5u

A.Abbott o2.5 BB+145

0.73u

STL +105

0.5u

Over 8.5-115

0.5u

Bet to 9 (+100)

STL +110 (F5)

0.5u

STL +108

Liberatore Bot ERA over 1 run better, Pitching+ over 20 points better - CIN 90 wRC+ v LHP, STL 107 - STL better defense and bullpen

3 MLB Players Props for Thursday’s Slate
Alex Hinton•
May 1, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 20-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Reds' 32 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	35-31	15-17	20-14	12-10	23-21
Cardinals	39-25	21-14	18-11	7-4	32-20

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	41-24-1	21-11	20-13-1	14-8	27-16-1
Cardinals	27-33-4	17-16-2	10-17-2	4-6-1	22-27-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	32-34	16-16	16-18	13-9	19-25
Cardinals	36-28	19-16	17-12	8-3	28-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	STL	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 9.5	STL -118
Apr 30th	STL	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 9	STL -150
Apr 28th	STL	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 9.5	CIN -122
Apr 27th	@COL	W 8-1	-1.5 W	U 11.5	CIN -162
Apr 26th	@COL	W 6-4	-1.5 W	U 10.5	CIN -212

Hunter Greene
SP
Greene is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Liberatore, P	42	3	2	2
RM.Svanson, P	44	2	2	2
RR.O'Brien, P	34	1.2	2	3
LJ.King, P	24	1.1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R
1L.Nootbaar, LF	0-4	0
2M.Winn, SS	0-4	0
3B.Donovan, 2B	1-3	1
4N.Arenado, 3B	1-3	0
4N.Gorman, PH	0-1	0
5W.Contreras, 1B	0-2	0
5A.Burleson, PH	0-1	0
6L.Baker, DH	0-3	0
7J.Walker, RF	0-2	0
8Y.Pozo, C	1-3	0
9J.Barrero, CF	0-3	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Abbott, P	74	4	3	1
RG.Ashcraft, P	31	3	4	0
LT.Rogers, P	12	1	1	0
RL.Mey, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	1-4	2	0	0
2M.McLain, 2B	1-5	0	0	1
3E.De La Cruz, SS	0-3	1	0	0
4N.Marte, 3B	2-4	2	0	1
5S.Espinal, LF	2-4	1	0	2
6S.Steer, 1B	2-3	1	1	1
7G.Lux, DH	0-3	1	0	1
8J.Trevino, C	1-3	1	1	3
9B.Dunn, RF	0-4	0	0	0