Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - October 21, 2025

Mariners at Blue Jays

12:10 am • FOX

Seattle Mariners

3-3

3 - 4

Toronto Blue Jays

3-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners 3-3	PK	+1.5-185	o7.5-105	+109
Blue Jays 3-3	u7.5	-1.5+155	u7.5-118	-130

Tuesday 12:10 a.m.

October 21, 2025

Rogers CentreToronto

TOR -1.5+155

0.75u

Over 4 (F5)+105

TOR -130

S.Bieber u4.5 Ks+126

0.2u

Just a dabble here as most projections I’m seeing have Bieber at 5 strikeouts but at plus odds I’ll take a shot at the under here. The biggest variable is this is an elimination Game 7 for the Blue Jays, meaning if he’s in trouble or not sharp they aren’t going to give him a long leash. The Blue Jays will keep him out there as long as he’s dealing, but they don’t need length here, they need sharpness. Projection sites are going to treat Bieber with a median perspective but there’s a wider range of outcomes than sites can project here given the elimination factor.

Over 7.5-119

SEA +108

Go Mariners

Under 7.5+105

SEA +110

@Zerillo

G.Kirby u3.5 Ks-150

@kylemurray03

S.Bieber o11.5 Outs-115

@Zerillo

G.Kirby u11.5 Outs-145

@Zerillo

G.Springer To Record 2+ Total Bases Yes+111

0.3u

@cowhitchurch

C.Raleigh To Record 2+ Total Bases Yes+125

0.3u

@cowhitchurch

E.Suarez To Record 2+ Total Bases Yes+170

0.2u

@cowhitchurch

A.Barger To Record 2+ Total Bases Yes+189

0.2u

@cowhitchurch

C.Raleigh To Hit 1+ Home Runs Yes+270

0.25u

@cowhitchurch

G.Springer To Hit 1+ Home Runs Yes+450

0.2u

@cowhitchurch

E.Suarez To Hit 1+ Home Runs Yes+418

0.15u

@cowhitchurch

A.Barger To Hit 1+ Home Runs Yes+750

0.1u

@cowhitchurch

V.Guerrero Over0.5 Hitter Walks-110

1.1u

G.Kirby Over0.5 Hitter Walks-125

D.Varsho o0.5 HR+575

0.25u

E.Suarez o0.5 HR+420

0.25u

J.Rodriguez o0.5 HR+475

0.25u

G.Kirby u11.5 Outs-110

0.11u

Bet to -150

S.Bieber o11.5 Outs-140

0.14u

Bet to -150

SEA +110

0.01u

Bet to +105 for G7 if you don’t have M’s futures If you have futures you have options: * Combined exposure = 6.7u to win from 0.6u risk (+1117 avg) - including Pennant Exacta * Simple hedge → bet Jays to win ~3u = flatten AL pennant profit. * Partial hedge → 1.5u win or ~0.75u risk at –125 = freeroll futures. * “Team No Hedge” argument — Mariners still +EV at near 50% win prob. * Key question: comfort level with a 7u swing on one game.

G.Kirby u3.5 Ks-134

1.34u

TOR -125

1.25u

SEA +115

TOR -125

1.25u

Under 7.5-107

2 Data-Driven Mariners Prop Picks (30-1 Parlay)
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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	91-71	49-32	42-39	42-45	48-25
Mariners	69-93	36-45	33-48	44-69	24-22

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	86-71-5	45-34-2	41-37-3	46-40-1	39-30-4
Mariners	88-68-6	41-35-5	47-33-1	58-49-6	28-18

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	6-4	54-27	40-41	52-35	41-32
Mariners	6-5	51-30	39-42	66-47	22-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 20th	SEA	W 6-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	TOR -122
Oct 17th	@SEA	L 2-6	-1.5 L	O 7	SEA -112
Oct 17th	@SEA	W 8-2	+1.5 W	O 7.5	TOR +112
Oct 16th	@SEA	W 13-4	+1.5 W	O 7	TOR +111
Oct 13th	SEA	L 3-10	-	O 7	SEA -125

Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Kirby, P	65	4	3	1
RB.Woo, P	38	2.1	2	2
RE.Bazardo, P	12	0.2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Rodriguez, CF	2-4	2	1	1
2C.Raleigh, C	1-3	1	1	1
3J.Naylor, 1B	1-3	0	0	1
4J.Polanco, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5R.Arozarena, LF	1-4	0	0	0
6E.Suarez, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Crawford, SS	1-2	0	0	0
8L.Rivas, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9V.Robles, RF	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Bieber, P	74	3.2	5	2
RL.Varland, P	13	1.1	0	1
RS.Dominguez, P	7	1	0	0
RK.Gausman, P	19	1	0	0
RC.Bassitt, P	4	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Springer, DH	1-3	2	1	3
2N.Lukes, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3V.Guerrero, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4A.Kirk, C	1-4	0	0	0
5D.Varsho, CF	1-3	0	0	1
6E.Clement, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Barger, RF	1-2	1	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
9A.Gimenez, SS	1-1	0	0	0