Padres vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - April 26, 2023

Padres at Cubs

11:40 pm • MLB Network

San Diego Padres

1-2

5 - 3

Chicago Cubs

4-4

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Smyly			5.00	11-11
M.Wacha			3.22	14-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 1-2	-1.5+165	o8-112	-110
Cubs 4-4	+1.5-190	u8-107	-110

Wednesday 11:40 p.m.

April 26, 2023

Wrigley FieldChicago

CHC -110

1.1u

CHC o3.5-135

1.35u

CHC +100

$1.00

Under 8-110

1.1u

SD -1.5+160

0.8u

CHC -105 (F5)

0.24u

Adding a bit more to this the deeper I dive

SD -115

CHC -105 (F5)

0.48u

CHC +100

0.5u

Need +100 or better

CHC +100

$40.00

Smyly has been legit this season and I’m low on Wacha

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Apr 26, 2023 UTC
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The Padres are 19-22 (.463) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season -- tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.

The Padres are 25-3 (.893) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .806.

The Cubs are just 13-15 (.464) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season -- tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 7-70 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season -- tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Jake Cronenworth has an OPS of just .370 with two strikes this season -- ninth worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Drew Smyly has allowed an OPS of just .345 (57 PAs) with two strikes this season -- 15th best among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP-- 89th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 60% of the time (62/103) with two-strikes this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 98th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 54% of the time (54/101) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 39-42 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Cubs' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	78-84	39-42	39-42	55-60	22-24
Padres	87-75	45-36	42-39	44-49	42-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	74-78-10	40-36-5	34-42-5	52-56-7	22-21-3
Padres	69-89-4	34-46-1	35-43-3	46-45-2	23-43-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	92-70	50-31	42-39	73-42	18-28
Padres	90-72	52-29	38-43	56-37	33-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 25th	SD	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 7	CHC -110
Apr 23rd	LAD	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 7.5	LAD +121
Apr 22nd	LAD	L 4-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	LAD +105
Apr 21st	LAD	W 13-0	+1.5 W	O 9.5	CHC +140
Apr 20th	LAD	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 11.5	LAD -105

Michael Soroka
SP
Soroka is out with shoulder
Out
Justin Steele
SP
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Wacha, P	99	5	5	3
RN.Martinez, P	50	3	2	0
LJ.Hader, P	22	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	2-5	0	3
2J.Soto, LF	0-5	0	0
3M.Machado, 3B	1-4	0	0
4X.Bogaerts, SS	1-4	1	0
5N. Cruz, DH	1-4	1	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	1-4	0	2
7H.Kim, 2B	2-3	2	0
8A.Nola, C	0-2	0	0
8T.Grisham, PH	0-1	1	0
8T.Grisham, CF	0-1	1	0
9J.Azocar, CF	1-2	0	0
9B.Sullivan, C	0-1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Smyly, P	89	5	4	2
RA.Alzolay, P	17	1	0	1
LB.Hughes, P	15	0.2	0	1
RM.Rucker, P	6	0.1	0	0
RB. Boxberger, P	8	1	1	0
RJ.Merryweather, P	17	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	1-5	0	0	1
2D.Swanson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	1-4	0	0	0
4S.Suzuki, RF	1-4	1	0	0
5T. Mancini, 1B	2-4	1	1	2
6E. Hosmer, DH	1-3	0	0	0
6N.Madrigal, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7P.Wisdom, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
8Y.Gomes, C	1-4	0	0	0
9N.Velazquez, CF	1-3	0	0	0