Padres vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2025

Padres at Pirates

10:40 pm • Apple TV+

San Diego Padres

79-65

9 - 4

Pittsburgh Pirates

64-80

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Keller			4.16	6-14
D.Cease			4.71	7-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 79-65	-1.5	-1.5+125	o8-118	-135
Pirates 64-80	u7.5	+1.5-150	u8-104	+114

Friday 10:40 p.m.

May 02, 2025

PNC ParkPittsburgh

D.Cease u2.5 Earned Runs-155

PIT +130 (F5)

PIT +1.5-120

Pirates hit better at home – 3.79 runs/game, .305 OBP in Pittsburgh. Cease unraveling – 5.76 ERA, 4 BBs last start, shaky command. Keller keeping games close – outperforming his record at home. Cease struggling for SD – 5.76 ERA, season-high 4 BBs last outing. Pirates 4 wins in last 9, trending better offensively. Keller better than his 1-2 record – keeps games close, limits damage. Pirates more competitive when he starts at home. Cease’s control issues linger – Pirates can work counts, get on base. Padres away win rate just .417 – not the same team outside Petco. Bullpen edge not as sharp lately for Padres. Home crowd, familiar dimensions give PIT boost. Pirates have done well as home dogs – matchup suits them. SD’s inconsistencies + Pirates trending up = value on the +1.5 line.

SD o4.5 Team Total+104

1.04u

SD o4.5 Team Total+104

1.04u

M.Machado o0.5 HR+500

0.1u

Day 1

Over 8+105

1.05u

prefer this over some juiced 7.5’s being offered, good to 8 -120

Over 8+105

0.53u

Bet to -108

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 34-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Pirates' 75 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	79-65	45-30	34-35	17-23	60-42
Padres	77-67	37-32	40-35	36-43	40-24

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	57-79-8	31-39-5	26-40-3	16-22-2	40-56-6
Padres	61-79-4	29-39-1	32-40-3	40-37-2	21-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	64-80	42-33	22-47	20-20	43-59
Padres	79-65	44-25	35-40	47-32	31-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 1st	CHC	L 3-8	-1.5 L	O 8	CHC -127
Apr 30th	CHC	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 9	PIT +148
Apr 29th	CHC	L 0-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	CHC +128
Apr 27th	@LAD	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	LAD +277
Apr 27th	@LAD	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 9	LAD +225

Johan Oviedo
SP
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable

Endy Rodriguez
1B
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Cease, P	91	4	3	2
LW.Peralta, P	16	0.2	1	1
RA.Jacob, P	21	0.2	1	1
LY.Matsui, P	8	0.2	0	0
RJ.Estrada, P	15	1	3	0
LA.Morejon, P	11	1	0	0
RR.Bergert, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	0-0	0	0	0
1O.Gonzalez, PR	1-2	1	0	0
1O.Gonzalez, RF	1-2	1	0	0
1B.Lockridge, LF	1-1	1	0	1
2L.Arraez, 1B	3-5	1	0	3
3M.Machado, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4G.Sheets, DH	3-5	1	1	2
5X.Bogaerts, SS	1-4	2	0	0
6J.Iglesias, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
7T.Wade, CF	2-4	1	0	1
8J.Heyward, LF	1-4	1	0	1
8J.Heyward, RF	1-4	1	0	1
9M.Maldonado, C	1-3	0	0	0
9E.Diaz, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9E.Diaz, C	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	88	5	3	4
LR.Borucki, P	28	1.1	2	0
RC.Shugart, P	14	1	1	0
LC.Ferguson, P	19	0.1	1	3
RC.Holderman, P	24	1.1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1O.Cruz, CF	0-3	2	0	0
2B.Reynolds, RF	2-4	0	0	1
3A.McCutchen, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4E.Valdez, 1B	0-5	0	0	1
4E.Valdez, 2B	0-5	0	0	1
5J.Bart, C	0-3	1	0	0
6K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Frazier, 2B	1-2	1	1	1
7M.Gorski, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Gorski, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
8A.Canario, LF	1-3	0	0	1
9J.Triolo, SS	1-4	0	0	0