Rays vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - July 26, 2025

#System

Abbott has been our pitcher wagon all year, and we are going right back to him in a spot I think he can dominate. He will face the Rays, who do not match up well vs his pitch mix. Abbott's 5 pitches are the fastball (47.4%), the Curveball (19%), the Changeup (16.3%), the Sweeper (9.1%), and the Cutter (8.3%). Outside of Diaz and Jansen, the rest of this Rays lineup has a well below wOBA vs Abbott's pitch mix. The Rays rank middle of the pack in wRC+ and wOBA vs lefties this season, but most of that production has come from less talented arms. More elite arms have shut down this Rays lineup, and Abbott is in that category. Abbott has been elite this season, cashing this line in 15/18 games with an average of just 1.3 earned runs allowed. At home, he has been even better, allowing 1 or fewer runs in 9/10 games. That would be impressive for any stadium, but especially in the Great American Ballpark. This at plus money, is a steal, and I think we should see this close as a favorite to go under.