Red Sox vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Red Sox at Braves

11:20 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

2 - 4

Atlanta Braves

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Lopez			1.99	8-5
K.Crawford			4.36	9-16

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-134	o8.5-113	+157
Braves 0-0	-1.5+113	u8.5-106	-188

Tuesday 11:20 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

Under 8.5-101

0.99u

ATL -1.5+110

1.1u

Under 8.5+100

0.5u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)+100

BOS +140 (F5)

T.O'Neill o0.5 HR+400

0.5u

Favorite Dinger Tuesday pick of the night due to the temperature/offensive potential in this game. O'Neill has an 18% barrel rate so far and a .333 ISO against righties. Reynaldo Lopez's one flaw back in the rotation has been too many fly balls and too much hard contact.

BOS +144

0.8u

Have the Red Sox closer to 45% to win, versus implied odds at 41%. Buying into Kutter Crawford, thanks to his elite batted-ball suppression skills, and still a bit skeptical of Reynaldo Lopez.

K.Crawford u5.5 Hits Allowed-110

0.91u

Ballpark pal projects 4.26 Hits and +ev bet with devig odds of -143 giving value to this number

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have allowed just 2.5 runs per game over the last week -- tied for third lowest in MLB (6 games). The Braves have scored just 2.3 runs per game over the last week -- third lowest in MLB (6 games).

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Featured Insight
Braves RPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs right-handed batters since last season -- fourth highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 26% against LHP since last season -- third highest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Tuesday
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May 7, 2024 UTC
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The Braves are 29-35 (.453) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Red Sox are just 43-57 (.430) after a loss since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .426.

Michael Harris has a swing rate of 48% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- second highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .167 (3-for-18) against Kutter Crawford on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- ninth best among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Reynaldo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days -- best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Reynaldo Lopez has walked 32 of 186 left-handed batters (17%) since last season -- tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% -- fourth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	@LAD	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	LAD -155
May 5th	@LAD	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 8.5	LAD +164
May 4th	@LAD	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 9	LAD -106
May 1st	@SEA	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7	ATL -191
May 1st	@SEA	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7	SEA -125

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Crawford, P	87	6	6	2
LB.Bernardino, P	12	0.2	0	0
RG.Weissert, P	2	0.1	0	0
RJ.Slaten, P	22	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	2-5	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-4	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	1-5	0	0
4W.Abreu, RF	0-3	1	0
5V.Grissom, 2B	1-5	1	0
6D.Smith, DH	0-4	0	0
7G.Cooper, 1B	0-3	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	1-3	0	1
9C.Rafaela, SS	2-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Lopez, P	91	5.1	5	1
LA.Bummer, P	15	0.2	2	0
RJ.Chavez, P	15	1	0	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	12	1	1	0
RR.Iglesias, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-4	0	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	0-2	1	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6O.Arcia, SS	0-4	0	0	1
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8T.d'Arnaud, C	0-2	1	0	0
9J.Kelenic, LF	2-2	1	1	2
9A.Duvall, PH	0-0	0	0	0
9A.Duvall, LF	0-0	0	0	0