Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - August 15, 2023

Red Sox at Nationals

11:05 pm • MASN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

5 - 4

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Gray			3.91	8-13
N.Pivetta			4.04	10-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	-1.5-108	o9.5+100	-173
Nationals 0-0	+1.5-111	u9.5-115	+144

Tuesday 11:05 p.m.

August 15, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

J.Gray u17.5 Outs-115

$173.91

Josiah Gray comes into this matchup with a elite 2.8 road ERA, but a horrific 5.17 home ERA. Looking deeper into the games at home Gray has been busted up at home by bats that are not elite at all such as the tigers, cardinals, twins, brewers - and now he matches us up against a far better offensive threat in the Rsox. The Rsox are top 3 in avg, top 6 in ops and specifically top 10 in OBP and are above league average in P/PA. That being said, the Sox should have some long at bats and get enough base hits to bounce Gray out prior to the 6th. Gray also has been pulled in the 5th multiple times this year because he seems to get into a lot of problems towards the end of his PC + the manager likes to swap for matchup purposes. 7-2 to the under 17.5 this year, and my sims have him at 4.9 IP. The Play: J.Grey u 17.5 outs -115

J.Gray u17.5 Outs-115

Gray is under this line in 10/L14, and has been pretty poor at home this season (5.17 ERA, under in 7/9 starts). Fly ball pitcher, which won’t bode well today with pretty good hitting conditions. And he’s been wild at home with a 13.5% walk rate and a 59.8% strike percentage. The Sox offense has sputtered a bit of late, as they’re roughly league average vs righties over the last month. But even in their current state, I see them chasing Gray early - this just isn’t a line he’s hit with regularity.

J.Gray u17.5 Outs-115

BOS -170 (F5)

WSH +145

$100.00

BOS -160 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -165

Over 9-102

0.51u

Tuesday. Bet to -110

Featured Insight
Nationals Right Handed Hitters have struck out just 19% against LHP this season -- second-lowest in MLB. Red SoxRPs have a strikeout rate of just 22% vs right-handed batters this season -- sixth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Red Sox have struck out just 21% over the last two weeks -- eighth-lowest in MLB. Nationals have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last two weeks -- second-lowest in MLB.

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Tuesday's NRFI: Custom Pick for Javier, Gray
Shayne Trail•
Aug 15, 2023 UTC
Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Tuesday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Aug 15, 2023 UTC

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The Nationals are 4-2 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Alex Call has an OPS of just .442 with two strikes this season -- 14th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .347 (246 PAs) with two strikes this season -- second best among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Justin Turner is batting .290 against RHP this season -- tied for 14th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Right handed batters are hitting .278 (68-for-245) against Josiah Gray this season -- seventh worst among qualified SPs-- 12th Percentile.

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .686 (72 Total Bases / 105 ABs) on fastballs away since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .379 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .404 (21-for-52) against Josiah Gray on low fastballs this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 13th	ATH	W 8-7	-1.5 L	O 10	WSH -143
Aug 12th	ATH	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9.5	WSH -143
Aug 11th	ATH	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 9	WSH -120
Aug 10th	@PHI	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 9	PHI +210
Aug 9th	@PHI	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 9	PHI +158

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P	86	4.1	7	4
LB.Bernardino, P	12	0.2	0	0
RJ.Schreiber, P	13	1	2	0
RC.Martin, P	10	1	1	0
RJ.Winckowski, P	20	1	0	0
RK.Jansen, P	5	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	1-4	1	1	2
2J.Turner, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Devers, 3B	0-2	1	0	0
4T.Story, SS	0-3	0	0	0
5T.Casas, 1B	2-4	0	0	2
6A.Duvall, CF	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Duran, LF	1-4	1	0	0
8P.Reyes, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
9R.McGuire, C	1-3	1	0	0
9C.Wong, C	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Gray, P	83	3	4	5
LR.Garcia, P	23	2	1	0
RA. Machado, P	9	1	0	0
LJ.Ferrer, P	7	1	0	0
RJ.Weems, P	13	1	2	0
RH.Harvey, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	1-3	0	0
2L.Thomas, CF	0-3	1	0
3J.Meneses, DH	0-3	1	0
4K.Ruiz, C	1-4	1	2
5D.Smith, 1B	2-4	0	0
5M. Chavis, PR	0-0	0	0
5M. Chavis, 1B	0-0	0	0
6S.Garrett, RF	1-4	0	2
7J. Alu, 2B	0-4	0	0
8I.Vargas, 3B	0-4	0	0
9B. Rutherford, LF	1-4	1	0