Reds vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 16, 2026

Reds at Guardians

10:10 pm • CINR

Cincinnati Reds

37-40

4 - 7

Cleveland Guardians

41-38

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Cantillo			4.05	6-3
C.Paddack			6.05	0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 37-40	+1.5	+1.5-156	o8.5-109	+125
Guardians 41-38	u8.5	-1.5+136	u8.5-113	-150

Saturday 10:10 p.m.

May 16, 2026

Progressive FieldCleveland

CIN +135

CIN +1-110

C.Paddack o14.5 Outs-105

THE BAT X is forecasting 16.17 pitching outs for Chris Paddack. Oddsmakers are implying 13.64 pitching outs, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you'd be projected to win 74% of the time resulting in a 44% ROI with expected value of $46.58 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least -205. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

Over 8.5-102

0.25u

ONLY if you have Under 8.5. Make this 8 now - taking half off original position

E.De La Cruz u1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+100

0.76u

#EV 6.09%

E.De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+135

CIN +145

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 while Cleveland is 4-6 over the same stretch. The Reds have scored 50 runs in that window, enough offense to support a plus-money ML without confirmed starters. Cleveland has allowed 54 runs over its last 10, and this price is too wide for two teams separated by half a game.

Over 4.5 (F5)-120

0.83u

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy This is an early-run bet built around Chris Paddack's 7.63 ERA and 1.663 WHIP. Cleveland has averaged 5.2 runs over the last 10, and Cincinnati games have averaged 9.8 total runs in that same window. The number only asks for 5 runs before the bullpen phase, with both projected lineups carrying enough top-order pressure to get there.

S.Steer o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-105

Under 8.5-110

0.55u

Update: Want -110 to bet and would keep smaller

Under 8.5-104

1.04u

Over 8-115

CLE -0.5 (F5)-102

1.32u

#EV 2.59%

CIN +150

0.5u

Bet to +133

Under 8.5-115

0.58u

Not including this in Saturday's breakdown because only FD has this price and I'd want 8.5. Negative run environment, neutral weather, G.Williams approaching 30 K%, both offenses below 95 wRC+ Hm/Rd/v RHP, CLE proj Def 13 FRV, 7th best bullpen estimators L30 days

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 23-20 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 18 of Guardians' 36 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	42-37	19-17	23-20	18-23	24-13
Reds	42-35	19-20	23-15	13-11	29-24

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	39-40	18-18	21-22	21-20	17-20
Reds	45-31-1	23-16	22-15-1	15-9	30-22-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	41-38	19-17	22-21	22-19	19-18
Reds	37-40	19-20	18-20	14-10	23-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 15th	CIN	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 7.5	CIN -141
May 13th	LAA	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 7	CLE -159
May 12th	LAA	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CLE -139
May 11th	LAA	W 7-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	CLE -173
May 10th	MIN	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIN -162

Hunter Greene
SP
Greene is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Paddack, P	78	5	3	2
RL.Mey, P	21	0.1	1	2
LS.Moll, P	22	1.1	2	1
RP.Johnson, P	12	0.1	0	1
RC.Phillips, P	27	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1D.Myers, CF	1-4	1	1	1
2E.De La Cruz, SS	1-3	1	0	0
3S.Stewart, 1B	0-2	0	0	1
4S.Steer, LF	1-4	0	0	2
5J.Bleday, DH	0-4	0	0	0
6M.McLain, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
7B.Dunn, RF	2-3	1	0	0
7W.Benson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Trevino, C	0-1	0	0	0
8T.Stephenson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8T.Stephenson, C	0-1	0	0	0
9K.Hayes, 3B	0-2	1	0	0
9N.Lowe, PH	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Cantillo, P	87	5	4	4
RC.Holderman, P	13	1.2	1	0
LE.Sabrowski, P	5	0.1	1	0
RH.Gaddis, P	14	1	0	0
RC.Smith, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1D.Schneemann, CF	0-3	0	0	0
1R.Hoskins, PH	0-0	0	0	1
1P.Halpin, CF	0-1	0	0	0
2J.Ramirez, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
3C.DeLauter, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4K.Manzardo, 1B	2-5	1	0	0
5T.Bazzana, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
6S.Kwan, LF	1-3	2	0	0
7A.Martinez, RF	2-4	3	1	2
8A.Hedges, C	0-2	0	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	2-3	0	0	2