Twins vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - October 7, 2023

Twins at Astros

8:45 pm • FS1

Minnesota Twins

1-3

4 - 6

Houston Astros

3-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Verlander			2.95	1-1
B.Ober			12.46	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 1-3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Astros 3-1	N/A	N/A	N/A

Saturday 8:45 p.m.

October 07, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

Over 8-120

MIN +124

0.81u

Follow me on Twitter @Reno_Jonny

J.Abreu o0.5 RBI+210

0.53u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

1.5u

MIN +130

MIN +138

MIN +131

B.Ober o14.5 Outs-135

0.5u

Over 7.5-110

0.45u

MIN +135

0.5u

Under 7.5-109

1.09u

B.Ober u4.5 Ks+100

0.1u

MIN +124 (F5)

0.5u

Ober 3.87 SIERA/3.61 xERA, Verlander 4.43/3.66 - HOU 105/107 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, MIN 101/111 - HOU def 16 Runs Prevented better BUT 18 RP worse by projected LUs (-30 RP combined)

MIN +135

0.5u

Over 7.5-110

0.5u

MIN +131

MIN +140

0.75u

Bet to +138

Featured Insight
Twins hitters have a hard-hit rate of 42% this season -- fourth-best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 41% against the Astros this season -- tied for seventh-worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins have struck out 24% since last season -- tied for third-highest in MLB. Astros have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season -- second-highest in MLB.

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The Astros are 27-18 (.600) after a road win this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.

47% of fastball strikeouts for Yordan Alvarez are located out of the zone since last season -- fifth highest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. 63% of Bailey Ober fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .203 (13-for-64) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .350 -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .272 (161 Total Bases / 593 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .400 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	82-80	37-44	45-36	43-60	39-18
Twins	78-84	37-44	41-40	36-51	40-31

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	72-83-7	36-43-2	36-40-5	45-56-2	25-27-5
Twins	73-83-6	39-39-3	34-44-3	42-42-3	29-39-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	19-29	46-35	41-40	56-47	31-26
Twins	21-26	38-43	32-49	41-46	28-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 1st	@ARI	W 8-1	-	-	-
Oct 1st	@ARI	W 1-0	-	-	-
Sep 30th	@ARI	W 2-1	-	-	-
Sep 28th	@SEA	W 8-3	-	-	-
Sep 27th	@SEA	L 2-6	-	-	-

Pablo Lopez
SP
Lopez is out with elbow
Out
David Festa
SP
Festa is out with shoulder
Out
Travis Adams
SP
Adams is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Ober, P	43	3	2	3
RK.Maeda, P	43	2	2	2
RC.Paddack, P	19	1.1	2	0
LC.Thielbar, P	18	0.2	1	1
RE.Pagan, P	14	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Polanco, 3B	2-5	1	1	3
3R.Lewis, DH	1-5	1	1	1
4M.Kepler, RF	1-3	0	0	0
5A.Kirilloff, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6C.Correa, SS	2-4	0	0	0
7M.Wallner, LF	0-3	1	0	0
8R.Jeffers, C	2-4	1	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-1	0	0	0
9W.Castro, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9W.Castro, CF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	93	6	6	0
RH.Neris, P	18	0.2	2	4
RB.Abreu, P	29	1.1	3	0
RR.Pressly, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-4	1	1	1
2A.Bregman, 3B	1-3	2	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	2-3	3	2	3
4K.Tucker, RF	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Abreu, 1B	1-3	0	0	1
6M. Brantley, LF	1-3	0	0	0
6M.Dubon, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Dubon, CF	0-0	0	0	0
7C.McCormick, CF	1-4	0	0	1
7C.McCormick, LF	1-4	0	0	1
8J.Pena, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	0	0	0